Handicapping the Statistical Report VII

[_Alf O'Mega]

What happened in 1989?

The millennium started. Weren't you paying attention?

[_Alf O'Mega]

What happened in 1989?

Actually, I think it was a change in counting methodology, particularly the 110-year rule I refer to above. You'll notice that there was no corresponding bump in the number of stakes or wards.

[_Tad]

Alf, are you going to be on the semiannual Mormon Expression General Conference Review?

[_Alf O'Mega]

Alf, are you going to be on the semiannual Mormon Expression General Conference Review?

I'm available, but I haven't heard from John yet.

[_brade]

Speaking of Mormon Expressions, I seem to recall listening to an episode where you discussed all these statistics, and if I remember right there was some discussion of an anomaly in 1981/82 that you speculated had some relationship with the decrease in missionaries in the early 2000's. Am I right that you discussed something like that, and, if so, what exactly was the issue?

[_Alf O'Mega]

Speaking of Mormon Expressions, I seem to recall listening to an episode where you discussed all these statistics, and if I remember right there was some discussion of an anomaly in 1981/82 that you speculated had some relationship with the decrease in missionaries in the early 2000's. Am I right that you discussed something like that, and, if so, what exactly was the issue?

I think I remember what you are referring to. Check the "Children of Record" chart and you'll notice a drop in 1984. 1984 + 19 = 2003. Now check the "Missionaries" chart starting in 2003 and you'll notice what is apparently one consequence of that flagging fertility.

By the way, I'll be reviewing the Saturday afternoon session on the podcast, so get your geek on for some mad stats talk.

[_moksha]

These same categories with just active members listed would be interesting, as would the active membership broken down into 10 year cohort increments and by sex.

[_Alf O'Mega]

The report is in. Let's see how I did.

Stakes
2010 projection: 2,904
2010 prediction: 2,903
2010 actual: 2,896

I called the projection high, and it was: 1 for 1.

Missions
2010 projection: 348
2010 prediction: 343
2010 actual: 340

I called the projection high, and it was: 2 for 2.

Districts
2010 projection: 607
2010 prediction: 613
2010 actual: 614

I called the projection low, and it was: 3 for 3.

Wards and Branches
2010 projection: 28,777
2010 prediction: 28,763
2010 actual: 28,660

I called the projection high, and it was: 4 for 4.

Total Membership
2010 linear projection: 14,141,729
2010 parabolic projection: 14,156,268
2010 exponential projection: 14,169,235
2010 prediction: 14,145,980
2010 actual: 14,131,467

All three projections were high, as was my prediction: 4 for 5.

Increase in Children of Record
2010 projection: 129,608
2010 prediction: 117,833
2010 actual: 120,528

I called the projection high, and it was: 5 for 6.

Converts Baptized
2010 projection: 288,197
2010 prediction: 282,763
2010 actual: 272,814

I called the projection high, and it was: 6 for 7.

Full-time Missionaries
2010 projection: 52,033
2010 prediction: 52,315
2010 actual: 52,225

I called the projection low, and it was: 7 for 8.

[_Analytics]

I called the projection low, and it was: 7 for 8.

Well done!

And thanks for compiling these numbers.

[_Alf O'Mega]

My summary of the results was rather terse, so let me take a minute to add a few more observations.

First, the total membership growth rate has been slowing down since the early 80s, although it has not always been a steady decline. (See the "Increase in Membership (%)" chart above.) This year the increase (2.22%) was the smallest since that anomalous 1974 figure at the left end of the chart.

Units grew, as they usually do, at a slower rate than the total membership. As a result, the number of members per stake or district is over 4,000 for the first time that I can calculate, and members per ward or branch will soon pass 500 for the first time.

The missionaries are baptizing at a rate of about 5.22 converts apiece, which is about average for the last five years (and up from the 2003 minimum of 4.32). However, there are fewer missionaries per capita (about one for every 271 members) and fewer per stake (18.03) than ever before. Converts per thousand members (19.31) is also at an all-time low.

Finally, in the spirit of snappy comebacks you couldn't think of until the next morning, I need to say something in response to Tom's ridiculously extravagant introduction of me on the podcast ("smartest guy here" or something like that), which I let pass with a stunned, undignified silence. If I was the smartest guy there, why couldn't I come up with a better retort than that, eh?

Bet you're feeling pretty silly now, aren't you, Tom?