Where do they go from here?

[_Quasimodo]

I just found this. I knew it was happening, but this nice, short article tells the story well:
http://www.popfi.com/2010/10/19/crystal-cathedral-files-for-bankruptcy/

Schuller's ministry may have been known better worldwide than the LDS church.

These things do happen.

[_Wisdom Seeker]

Do you think the church would somehow go against some very basic priciples of belief to save itself from declining membership?

Do you think a declining membership will be attributed to a weeding-out process adminstered at a local level?

Do you think nothing much will change?

Do you think the LDS church will surpass many other churces in growth in the next few decades?

Hi Wisdom (very good thing to seek),

1. I think that's happened quite a bit (polygamy, etc.).

2. I think that the authorities could (or even will) call it that, but I don't think that explanation would fly.

3. BIG changes coming.

4. Seems to be slipping badly, already. I think they're heading for big declines.

1. Agree
2. Agree
3. Revelation of staus quo prevents anything from changing.
4. I agree but we will never know the full details as the numbers they report include anyone who was a member and they don't take them off the books until I think they would have turned 110 years old. And as for actually removing people from the membership numbers when they quit, I doubt they even do that.

[_Quasimodo]

Hi Wisdom (very good thing to seek),

1. I think that's happened quite a bit (polygamy, etc.).

2. I think that the authorities could (or even will) call it that, but I don't think that explanation would fly.

3. BIG changes coming.

4. Seems to be slipping badly, already. I think they're heading for big declines.

1. Agree
2. Agree
3. Revelation of staus quo prevents anything from changing.
4. I agree but we will never know the full details as the numbers they report include anyone who was a member and they don't take them off the books until I think they would have turned 110 years old. And as for actually removing people from the membership numbers when they quit, I doubt they even do that.

We agree on the first two, great.

I'm a little fuzzy on your answer to #3. Remember, I'm a nervemo and new to this board, so you may have to help me with an explanation.

On #4. I don't think any of that will matter. I think the loss of tithing that will occur with the loss of membership will force a radical rethinking and major changes in church structure.

[_moksha]

Quasimodo, when conditions change the Church is able to adapt.

Forgive me, but they don't seem to be doing that very well recently. Still, maybe that's my question. How might they adapt to a colapse of membership?

At some point, the question of how to best retain members will take front and center stage and problem solving rather than homilies will be the order of that day. Till then have you heard about the parable of the Pickle and the Puka Shell? It is a doozy...

The Ark rights itself, but only when it is good and ready.

[_Quasimodo]

At some point, the question of how to best retain members will take front and center stage and problem solving rather than homilies will be the order of that day. Till then have you heard about the parable of the Pickle and the Puka Shell? It is a doozy...

The Ark rights itself, but only when it is good and ready.

I don't think problem solving will be of much use now. The hole in the dyke is growing beyond the thickest of apologist's fingers. Sometimes arks sink.

Forgive my ignorance, but I haven't heard the pickle/ puka shell parable. Please pass that along, if you don't mind.

[_moksha]

Forgive my ignorance, but I haven't heard the pickle/ pukka shell parable. Please pass that along, if you don't mind.

It is an imaginary amalgam of General Conference talks by Elder Bednar and President Monson. Basically, it goes like this:

A Pickle wearing pukka shells walks into a bar and orders a plate of milk and cookies. The bartender looks the Pickle over and says, 'We don't get many Pickles in here wearing pukka shells'.

The Pickle tells him immediately to piss off and that he isn't coming in that bar again. Suddenly the host of the Lord flies down from upon high with carrying a silver Toyota Avalon, from which steps Elder Bednar. He exhorts the Pickle to reserve his judgment and anger. The Pickle agrees to resume his milk and cookies at the bar. For his efforts the Pickle hands Elder Bednar his pukka shells and asks him to thank President Monson for the shells, that once saved the Pickle from being tempted by the wild women of both Provo and the Goddess Suite.

[_Lucinda]

I don't think problem solving will be of much use now. The hole in the dyke is growing beyond the thickest of apologist's fingers. Sometimes arks sink.

I agree with you, Quasi. I know in our area there has been a decline in tithing and fast offerings. I thought it was all the economy. Now I'm wondering if there are more people like me around than I thought. I know in my little world of family and friends, a lot of us are dropping. Is there any way to accurately track or even speculate about the numbers of people leaving?

[_Quasimodo]

It is an imaginary amalgam of General Conference talks by Elder Bednar and President Monson. Basically, it goes like this:

A Pickle wearing pukka shells walks into a bar and orders a plate of milk and cookies. The bartender looks the Pickle over and says, 'We don't get many Pickles in here wearing pukka shells'.

The Pickle tells him immediately to piss off and that he isn't coming in that bar again. Suddenly the host of the Lord flies down from upon high with carrying a silver Toyota Avalon, from which steps Elder Bednar. He exhorts the Pickle to reserve his judgment and anger. The Pickle agrees to resume his milk and cookies at the bar. For his efforts the Pickle hands Elder Bednar his pukka shells and asks him to thank President Monson for the shells, that once saved the Pickle from being tempted by the wild women of both Provo and the Goddess Suite.

Thanks moksha,

Wow, for me that's a little arcane. It's either my old age showing or I need to know what Eldar Bednar and President Monson had to say in GC to fully get it.

I do have to say that pukka shells (when I actually did wear them for a short time a hundred or so years ago) never saved me from temptation. Nor my Pickle.

[_Quasimodo]

I don't think problem solving will be of much use now. The hole in the dyke is growing beyond the thickest of apologist's fingers. Sometimes arks sink.

I agree with you, Quasi. I know in our area there has been a decline in tithing and fast offerings. I thought it was all the economy. Now I'm wondering if there are more people like me around than I thought. I know in my little world of family and friends, a lot of us are dropping. Is there any way to accurately track or even speculate about the numbers of people leaving?

I think there will be no official (or maybe misleading) LDS numbers on the decline of members. Releasing real numbers might be bad for business.

There does seem to be a lot of people saying the same things as you have about tithing and attendance in various places on the web.

I have read some casual accounts about missionaries in the USA having a lot of trouble registering baptisms in the "internet age". I've also read the same sort of reports concerning the combining of wards in the UK and other European countries due to poor attendance.

I think I feel a groundswell!

[_Quasimodo]

Hi Lucinda,

Here's some rough stats. from Mormon Curtain. I imagine that many board members will have complaints about the source, but there are many other articles like this out there. This is just an example.

Only Four Million Active Mormons Worldwide

"While the Church makes no claims about member activity rates and no official reports of LDS activity rates are published, the Encyclopedia of Mormonism notes: "Attendance at sacrament meeting varies substantially. Canada, the South Pacific, and the United States average between 40 percent and 50 percent. Europe and Africa average about 35 percent. Asia and Latin America have weekly attendance rates of about 25 percent." While various idiosyncratic definitions of activity exist, the definition of members attending church weekly is the simplest and most meaningful. However, rates calculated by dividing church attendance by total membership may over-represent actual activity if nonmember visitors, small children, and other attendees are counted regardless of membership status. By multiplying the number of members in each area by the fractional activity and summating the data, one comes up with a worldwide LDS activity rate of approximately 35%, or approximately 4 million members. This is very similar to estimates published by the Associate Press in April 2003: 'While the church doesn't release statistics on church activity rates, some research suggests participation in the church is as low as 30 percent.' For comparison, Adventist News Network reported in 2001 that worldwide Seventh-day Adventist member retention rates had fallen from 81% in previous years to a still very impressive 78% at present."

A web search on "LDS church membership decline" gets some interesting results.