Alf O'Mega wrote:My summary of the results was rather terse, so let me take a minute to add a few more observations.
Thanks for posting all this.
First, the total membership growth rate has been slowing down since the early 80s, although it has not always been a steady decline. (See the "Increase in Membership (%)" chart above.) This year the increase (2.22%) was the smallest since that anomalous 1974 figure at the left end of the chart.
I wonder if this is due to the number of converts being mostly dependent on the number of missionaries which looks to have fallen but now is a bit more stable, and the total membership which of course increases each year. Also I wonder how the total number may vary in the future given that the baby boom generation has about finished having children in the right age bracket(19) as well as falling number of children per women even in the church. Maybe as the baby boom generation is now getting older we might see an increase in couple missionaries.
Units grew, as they usually do, at a slower rate than the total membership. As a result, the number of members per stake or district is over 4,000 for the first time that I can calculate, and members per ward or branch will soon pass 500 for the first time.
Someone else brought this up as well that this number is a good indicator of church activity since the church creates wards and stakes based on activity numbers(especially from the males). That the average number continues to climb looks as though the activity rates in the church are falling.
The missionaries are baptizing at a rate of about 5.22 converts apiece, which is about average for the last five years (and up from the 2003 minimum of 4.32). However, there are fewer missionaries per capita (about one for every 271 members) and fewer per stake (18.03) than ever before. Converts per thousand members (19.31) is also at an all-time low.
Without knowing activity numbers it may be hard to tell just how well members are at helping to bring in new converts, but the number of missionaries is a good indicator of how many baptisms the church can expect. I think number of converts/missionary may increase some If I understand correctly that the church is working to take more missionaries out of low baptism areas to higher baptism areas. The fewer number of missionaries per stake and ward is probably due to an aging baby boom generation as well as falling activity rates.