Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

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_Dan Vogel
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Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _Dan Vogel »

Roger,

It's interesting that Dan lists these people as participants in a conspiracy who would have to have kept quiet about it if S/R is true. It sheds some light on how Dan approaches this.

The fact is S/R would not suggest that any of the above people would have been likely to have known anything about a connection to a Spalding manuscript with the possible exception of Cowdery. So whether or not any of them directly lied about the translation is irrelevant to the truth or falsehood of S/R. And yet Dan attempts to present them as co-conspirators in a massive S/R coverup. Given that they were followers of Joseph Smith and publicly professed S/D, it is wildly improbable that any of them would have kept any secrets favorable to S/R. On the other hand, as I have discussed at length on this thread, given their support for S/D, it is quite likely they would have kept silent with any information that they believed could be potentially damaging to S/D and, simultaneously, would have readily proclaimed whatever they believed would enhance it--this is borne out in their testimonies.


The Spalding theory originally said nothing about the witnesses to translation because the details were not widely known. They assumed from Anthon’s description that the entire translation was done from behind a curtain. That was a major error. Both you and Marg have called them liars. Of course they didn’t have knowledge of S/R to keep secret, but they would have known their account of no MS and Joseph Smith’s head in hat was false. They would have had crucial information supporting the Spalding theory, even if they didn’t know where the MS came from.

Parley may be a unique case. He might have produced content for the Book of Mormon. He might have participated in pretending to convert Rigdon, or he might have simply followed Rigdon's directions without knowing what was really going on. Evidence is inconclusive.


Either way, he would be a conspirator, who continued to suppress even lie about the circumstances of Rigdon’s conversion.

Regarding the claim that Rigdon visited the Smith farm in 1827, Katharine Smith said:

… That prior to the latter part of the year A.D. 1830, there was no person who visited with or was an acquaintance of <or called upon the> said family or any member thereof, to my knowledge, by the name of Sidney Rigdon; nor was such person known to the family or any member thereof to my knowledge, until the last part of the year AD. 1830, or the first part of the year, 1831. –Signed affidavit, 15 April 1881, in Community of Christ Archives (EMD 1:520)


Now this is certainly an interesting question. If Rigdon showed up at the Smith residence prior to Dec. 1830, can the silence of the Smith family on that question be considered participation in a cover-up? Is that the only way to view it?


This is what Lorenzo Saunders claimed. Isn’t that the evidence that you alluded to?

It's interesting because when confronted with this same type of scenario in terms of Bible use, Dan thinks that a Bible being used in Book of Mormon production would not have raised red flags; hence, no one bothers to mention it was used.

I suspect if I try the same thing with Rigdon's alleged presence at the Smith home prior to Dec 1830 he will find multiple ways to protest.


Your preemptive criticism of what I might say betrays your lack of confidence. The two situations are not the same. Nothing demanded that the witnesses mention the use of a Bible as a translation aid. Besides, we don’t know that David Whitmer was even aware that the Bible had been used. On the other hand, if the Smith’s knew Rigdon had met Joseph Smith prior to publication of the Book of Mormon, which would be damaging information in support of the Spalding theory, their silence and denials involve them in the conspiracy.

I will grant that the question itself is worthy of consideration. Possible answers could be that Rigdon only interacted with Joseph or that the Smith's indeed intentionally covered up his presense in Palmyra or that Joseph only met with Rigdon in Ohio. There may be other solutions, but, I will certainly consider this question as well as it's implications.


Saunders has Rigdon visiting the Smiths in the open and claims to have heard his name mentioned by one of the Smiths. Isn’t he your source?

I don't want to get bogged down in a tit for tat over irrelevant subjective matters.


Me neither.

I used the word bloviating (which is subjective) based on many things you've stated on this thread …


I don’t see anything where I was long-winded, boastful, arrogant, pompous, self-aggrandizing. I was describing your arguments and said nothing about myself.
I do not want you to think that I am very righteous, for I am not.
Joseph Smith (History of the Church 5:401)
_Roger
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Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _Roger »

Glenn:

Taking Glenn's suggestion and looking at the D &C, I wrote:
7 Yea, verily I say unto you again, the time has come when the voice of the Lord is unto you: Go ye out of Babylon; gather ye out from among the nations, from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other.


Sounds present tense to me.


And Glenn responded:
This is quoting out of context. Here is the header to section 133 from which quoted only verse 7. I will not quote the whole chapter.


1–6, The Saints are commanded to prepare for the Second Coming; 7–16, All men are commanded to flee from Babylon, come to Zion, and prepare for the great day of the Lord; 17–35, He will stand on Mount Zion, the continents will become one land, and the lost tribes of Israel will return; 36–40, The gospel was restored through Joseph Smith to be preached in all the world; 41–51, The Lord will come down in vengeance upon the wicked; 52–56, It will be the year of his redeemed; 57–74, The gospel is to be sent forth to save the Saints and for the destruction of the wicked.


So how is my quote out of context, Glenn? The fact is the very D & C chapter you cited supports my point. So now I am taking the chapter you cited out of context? How so? It very plainly says: "The time has come..." How is that out of context, Glenn? You're the one taking it out of their context!

Look at all the present tense in the header you just quoted!

are commanded to prepare
are commanded to flee
come to Zion, and prepare for

The restoration of the lost tribes from the north country was and is still in the future. It was not a part of the doctrine and beliefs of the early church that the American Indians are descendents pf the lost tribes.


They believed the whole thing was getting underway right then and there, Glenn. They believed the "winding up scene" would take place in less than 50 years.

From very early times in the church history, the members did not hold to a lost tribes in the Americas story.


Which is irrelevant.

They believed, erroneously, that Lehi and company had become the progenitors of most if not all of the American Indians, but they believed that the lost tribes were still lost to the world somewhere in an Old World far north country.


I don't think you can demonstrate conclusively what they believed. For example, I don't think you have demonstrated that when Martin Harris refers to the lost sheep of Isreal it is not a reference to the lost tribes, or at least a portion of them, or that he did not believe the Indians around him were a part of those lost-sheep-tribes.

In any event, as I stated earlier, given what you agree to here, all it takes is the notion that Lehi came from Isreal at the time of the dispersal and his story becomes a lost tribe story.

But, again, I don't see how I quoted anything out of context. Verse 7 is part of the chapter you yourself suggested supported your argument. I don't think it actually does. I think your argument comes from your own 21st century doctrine, which, as I said, is imposing your doctrine onto theirs.

Sure, Wright stood by his statement. When he saw the manuscript, and realized he had made a faux pas, he did what you are so really fond of, made an ad hoc explanation knowing full well that there was no other manuscript and could never be proven wrong.


On the contrary! You're producing an ad hoc response to Wright! Wright mentioned the fact that Spalding had many manuscripts before Hurlbutt discovered MSCC. So being presented with one of Spalding's manuscripts is not adverse evidence! It is not a faux pas! That's just you mischaracterizing things. You just don't want to acknowledge that Wright said Spalding had many manuscripts and then later Hurlbut finds evidence to support Wright's assertion. There is no reason to doubt Wright when he tells us Spalding wrote manuscripts and then, lo and behold, we find one of them!

The Jockers study did provide some false data. Bruce did prove that statistically. You have disdained that research, citing problems that you feel it has, but ignore the fact that the Jockers original study would suffer from the very same problems, as well as the ones that Bruce pointed out.


Well since Bruce is now here and presumably following this discussion, perhaps he could tell us if your assertion above is accurate. Did the Jockers study "provide some false data," Bruce?

If so, perhaps we could hear an explanation of what exactly is "false data."

My understanding is that IF ONE ASSUMES that the real author is among the candidate set, then Jocker's methodology is pretty good at selecting the correct one from the others. Is that a fair layman's assessment, Bruce?

Roger, you are overstating what Ben was saying.


I don't think so, Glenn. In fact, I suspect it is actually you who has overstated things a bit when you earlier (many pages back) asserted that Bruce's study virtually eliminates all of the potential 19th century authors as viable candidates. That, I think is an overstatement, but perhaps Bruce could comment on that as well.

On the other hand, Ben never said that I was misquoting him. Of course, like you, he thinks the real author is not among the candidate set, but the fact remains that (whether right or wrong) he asserted that when the real author IS among the candidates, then Jocker's methodology is quite accurate--again, that's according to Ben.

From that, it certainly follows that there is no more likely 19th century author than Joseph Smith. And Joseph Smith was indeed among the candidate set in Jocker's most recent study.

He used lexical tools to find parallels for you in other nineteenth century works in response to your assertion that all of the parallels that have been culled from the Manuscript Found must mean something.


That's a different question. I disagree with Ben on that. But that's a totally different issue than Ben stating that Jocker's methods are very good when it comes to selecting the true author from a candidate set.

The fact that only Conneaut area witnesses make claims about a connection between the Book of Mormon is something that has already been dealt with. There is no mention by any of the missionaries that went through the area of anyone jumping up in any of the meetings and spouting off about the Book of Mormon being like Solomon's story.


Nor would we expect there to be. If I remember correctly Pratt mentions a general disturbance but is not specific.

They converted one person, Erastus Rudd, who was a near neighbor and in whose home Daniel Tyler said that a lot of that manuscript was written.
The Conneaut area witnesses had one common denominator. Philastus Hurlbut. They were contaminated by him and by popular but erroneous beliefs about the Book of Mormon. Josiah Spalding, on the other hand, had not been contaminated by Hurlbut, and provided a pretty accurate description of the manuscript that now resides at Oberlin College.


Well at least I think if you are suggesting that Hurlbut induced these people to lie (as opposed to confabulating their honest memories) I think you're on more solid ground than Dan. But then you need to explain why they would all lie. Were they anti-Mormons? Was it a conspiracy?

I don't think so. Because if that were the case, then you'd have an ever expanding conspiracy when more people come out of the woodwork to corroborate the Conneaut lies without Hurlbut's influence.

That Josiah presents a fairly accurate picture of MSCC does not mean it had to be the only manuscript, Glenn.

Actually Aaron Wright did not pointedly say or write anything of the kind. As you are well aware, that unsigned draft letter is in the handwriting of one Philastus Hurlbut. You do not know if what was written was a direct quote from Wright, or how much was an interpolation by Hurlbut himself.


This just doesn't fly, Glenn, because all the Conneaut witnesses, including Wright, had ample opportunity to set the record straight if they thought Hurlbut had manipulated their statements. Howe's book was published and circulated right there in their immediate vicinity. At that point, they would have been minor celebrities. They had plenty of opportunity to set the record straight, and none of them ever did.

Here is where you are assuming as true something that has not been established by any fact. Orson Pratt has never been connected with the 116 pages, or with the production of the Book of Mormon at all. But that is the problem with the S/R theory. It assumes as fact many events for which there is no evidence, but on which the theory depends.


No I'm not. I'm not assuming it as true, I am merely suggesting that Jocker's data implicates Parley Pratt to a certain extent, but not conclusively. Parley was in the right place at the right time, so it's possible he knew more than he let on. Given that Orson is Parley's brother it stands to reason that Orson could have gotten inside information about where Lehi landed from his brother, who would have been exposed to the Book of Lehi. That is all plausible speculation, Glenn, but I am not assuming it is true.

If you read John Miller's statement, he said that the straits of Darien was described verbally and did not indicate that it was part of Solomon's mythical second manuscript. As has been pointed out, none of the other Conneaut witnesses produced those specific names. Their description of the landings are so vague as to be unusable as to where in the Americas Solomon landed his people. Maybe because they really couldn't remember, even though many of them supposedly had heard that story repeatedly.


Yes, you are correct to point out that Miller claimed Spalding told him verbally as opposed to putting it in the manuscript. Good point. I thought one other witness mentioned Darien, but I might be mistaken about that.

Ben's statement is accurate, which Matt Jockers also tacitly acknowledged. Have you read his comments so much earlier in this thread?


Yes. As you might recall I commented on them.

He also acknowledged that Bruce's work has produced some positive refinements to his original work.


Correct. But to my knowledge, nothing that negates Ben's assertion.

You just cannot assume that the correct author or authors are in any set of candidates.


Actually I can do exactly that. For me, there is zero possibility that any Nephite is responsible for any of the Book of Mormon content. That means that the most likely possible 19th century candidate author is Joseph Smith Jr. Unless you can come up with a better 19th century candidate author and explain why, I am content to think of Joseph Smith as easily fulfilling that role. Jocker's latest test includes Joseph Smith among the candidates and Spalding and Rigdon still show up as more likely authors than Smith for many of the chapters. How do you explain that? How would Bruce explain that--in layman's language preferably.

What Bruce did was develop a method to check for the possibility that actual author was not in the mix.


Well if he actually did that, and after a lot of peer review it passes muster, then perhaps Dan and marg and I should all convert to Mormonism. Either that or start looking for samples of Lucy Mack Smith's writing. If Bruce actually accomplished that and concluded that Joseph Smith was not an author, I'd love to hear Dan's response.

You concerns, as I have pointed out, with Bruce's work are equally applicable to the original Jockers study. Either way, absolute conclusions of authorship based on the original Jockers study are invalid.


It would be nice if Bruce could either agree with or clarify the assertions you are making here.
"...a pious lie, you know, has a great deal more influence with an ignorant people than a profane one."

- Sidney Rigdon, as quoted in the Quincy Whig, June 8, 1839, vol 2 #6.
_GlennThigpen
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Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _GlennThigpen »

Roger, I am responding in three separate posts to keep them manageable.

Glenn wrote:The restoration of the lost tribes from the north country was and is still in the future. It was not a part of the doctrine and beliefs of the early church that the American Indians are descendents pf the lost tribes.


Roger wrote:They believed the whole thing was getting underway right then and there, Glenn. They believed the "winding up scene" would take place in less than 50 years.


Roger, you are asserting something that is not borne out by history. The supposed fifty-six year prophecy was not given until 1843. You are wrong in your interpretation and wrong in your timeline. The revelations of section 133 were received in 1831.

Roger wrote:So how is my quote out of context, Glenn? The fact is the very D & C chapter you cited supports my point. So now I am taking the chapter you cited out of context? How so? It very plainly says: "The time has come..." How is that out of context, Glenn? You're the one taking it out of their context!

Look at all the present tense in the header you just quoted!

are commanded to prepare
are commanded to flee
come to Zion, and prepare for


Roger. did you even read the headings for context? If I recall, you were asserting that the early LDS believed that the Indians were part of of the lost tribes.

I will quote again the header to D&C 133:
1–6, The Saints are commanded to prepare for the Second Coming; 7–16, All men are commanded to flee from Babylon, come to Zion, and prepare for the great day of the Lord; 17–35, He will stand on Mount Zion, the continents will become one land, and the lost tribes of Israel will return; 36–40, The gospel was restored through Joseph Smith to be preached in all the world; 41–51, The Lord will come down in vengeance upon the wicked; 52–56, It will be the year of his redeemed; 57–74, The gospel is to be sent forth to save the Saints and for the destruction of the wicked.


Glenn wrote:They believed, erroneously, that Lehi and company had become the progenitors of most if not all of the American Indians, but they believed that the lost tribes were still lost to the world somewhere in an Old World far north country.


Roger wrote:I don't think you can demonstrate conclusively what they believed. For example, I don't think you have demonstrated that when Martin Harris refers to the lost sheep of Isreal it is not a reference to the lost tribes, or at least a portion of them, or that he did not believe the Indians around him were a part of those lost-sheep-tribes.


I think that it is you that needs to demonstrate with some type of evidence that Martin Harris thought that the American Indians were part of the lost tribes of Israel rather than what the Book of Mormon claims them to be.

Roger, you do not know anything about the history of the early church. And now you are trying to interpret LDS scriptures for us. You have quoted one verse and a few parts of the header. Look at what it says about verses 17-35. Those verses are about the second coming of Christ and the restoration of the lost tribes form the north country.

The first part which speaks in the present tense was a call for the church to do missionary work in all parts of the world, and for those who were converted to gather to the U.S. Many people heeded the call to gather to the U.S. which helped the church grow more rapidly in the U.S. This gathering went on for several decades. But it was never taught that this gathering was the gathering of the lost tribes. That event, a literal restoration, is an event which section 133 places into the future.

Now go back and read the whole chapter including the headings and the preface to it.

The Book of Mormon is not a lost tribes story. As I have pointed out, several scriptures from the Book of Mormon itself make that very plain.

You may convolute the fact that Lehi found out that he was of the lineage of Joseph through Manasseh that such makes it a lost tribes story. But you would be wrong. The lost tribes were the ones exiled to the north country by the Assyrians. The remnants that were left behind were not lost.
A group of five males does does not make one tribe, much less up to ten tribes.

And, as has been demonstrated repeatedly, your idea does not comport with what the prevailing idea of the time was concerning the lost tribes as noted by Abner Jackson. You have shown no evidence to show that the witnesses that spoke of the lost tribes would have believed that a group of five males would make up a lost tribes story.


Glenn
Last edited by Guest on Sun Jul 24, 2011 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In order to give character to their lies, they dress them up with a great deal of piety; for a pious lie, you know, has a good deal more influence with an ignorant people than a profane one. Hence their lies came signed by the pious wife of a pious deceased priest. Sidney Rigdon QW J8-39
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Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _GlennThigpen »

Glenn wrote:The Jockers study did provide some false data. Bruce did prove that statistically. You have disdained that research, citing problems that you feel it has, but ignore the fact that the Jockers original study would suffer from the very same problems, as well as the ones that Bruce pointed out.


Roger wrote:Well since Bruce is now here and presumably following this discussion, perhaps he could tell us if your assertion above is accurate. Did the Jockers study "provide some false data," Bruce?

If so, perhaps we could hear an explanation of what exactly is "false data."

My understanding is that IF ONE ASSUMES that the real author is among the candidate set, then Jocker's methodology is pretty good at selecting the correct one from the others. Is that a fair layman's assessment, Bruce?


We do not have to wait for Bruce on this one. Bruce's paper was an indictment against assuming that the correct author was among the candidate set. That is what he refers to as the closed set methodology. Have you actually read his paper? He answered all of those questions in that paper. If all that you have to do to produce the correct author is to assume that one of them is the author, you can just dispense with all of the authorship studies that have been done to date and assume whoever you think is the best fit.
The original Jockers study was accurate if the correct author was included in the candidate set. Their work with the Federalist papers demonstrated that. The Jockers group tested all of the candidates against the Hamilton Federalist papers and Hamilton came out the winner each time.
However, Bruce ran the tests against the Hamilton Federalist papers, without Hamilton included as a candidate, and the results?

Bruce Schaalje wrote:Early or late Rigdon was falsely chosen as the author of 28 of the 51 Hamilton texts with inflated posterior probabilities ranging as high as 0.9999 (Fig. 2). Pratt was falsely chosen as the author of 12 of the papers, and Cowdery was falsely chosen as the author of the remaining 11 papers. These results dramatically demonstrate the danger of misapplying closed-set NSC.



Glenn wrote:Roger, you are overstating what Ben was saying.


Roger wrote:I don't think so, Glenn. In fact, I suspect it is actually you who has overstated things a bit when you earlier (many pages back) asserted that Bruce's study virtually eliminates all of the potential 19th century authors as viable candidates. That, I think is an overstatement, but perhaps Bruce could comment on that as well.


If I said that Bruce's study virtually eliminates all of the potential 19th century authors as viable candidates, I misspoke. It virtually eliminates all of the early nineteenth century candidates that were included in the test.

Roger wrote:On the other hand, Ben never said that I was misquoting him. Of course, like you, he thinks the real author is not among the candidate set, but the fact remains that (whether right or wrong) he asserted that when the real author IS among the candidates, then Jocker's methodology is quite accurate--again, that's according to Ben.


On that much we can agree.

Roger wrote:From that, it certainly follows that there is no more likely 19th century author than Joseph Smith. And Joseph Smith was indeed among the candidate set in Jocker's most recent study.


Being a likely candidate is not the issue. The issue is assuming that any of the candidates must be the author or one of the authors.

Glenn wrote:Here is where you are assuming as true something that has not been established by any fact. Orson Pratt has never been connected with the 116 pages, or with the production of the Book of Mormon at all. But that is the problem with the S/R theory. It assumes as fact many events for which there is no evidence, but on which the theory depends.


Roger wrote:No I'm not. I'm not assuming it as true, I am merely suggesting that Jocker's data implicates Parley Pratt to a certain extent, but not conclusively. Parley was in the right place at the right time, so it's possible he knew more than he let on. Given that Orson is Parley's brother it stands to reason that Orson could have gotten inside information about where Lehi landed from his brother, who would have been exposed to the Book of Lehi. That is all plausible speculation, Glenn, but I am not assuming it is true.


You seem to be assuming that the Jockers data is accurate and basing your further theories on that assumption. That was the point of this thread. Bruce's work has pretty well shown that the original Jockers methodology produced skewed results.


Glenn wrote:You just cannot assume that the correct author or authors are in any set of candidates.


Roger wrote:Actually I can do exactly that. For me, there is zero possibility that any Nephite is responsible for any of the Book of Mormon content. That means that the most likely possible 19th century candidate author is Joseph Smith Jr. Unless you can come up with a better 19th century candidate author and explain why, I am content to think of Joseph Smith as easily fulfilling that role. Jocker's latest test includes Joseph Smith among the candidates and Spalding and Rigdon still show up as more likely authors than Smith for many of the chapters. How do you explain that? How would Bruce explain that--in layman's language preferably.


Sigh. Yes, Roger, you can assume anything that you wish. I stand corrected on that. However, such an assumption may or may not be correct. Just assuming that Joseph Smith, Oliver Cowdery, Lucy Mack Smith, Sidney Rigdon, Parley P. Pratt, or any other nineteenth century person was the author of any part of the Book of Mormon adds zero percent to the probability that any of them actually were any of the authors.

Glenn wrote:What Bruce did was develop a method to check for the possibility that actual author was not in the mix.


Roger wrote:Well if he actually did that, and after a lot of peer review it passes muster, then perhaps Dan and marg and I should all convert to Mormonism. Either that or start looking for samples of Lucy Mack Smith's writing. If Bruce actually accomplished that and concluded that Joseph Smith was not an author, I'd love to hear Dan's response.


Roger, did you not read the very first post in this thread by Dan Peterson?
Dan Peterson wrote:An "Advance Access" version of a reply to the locally popular paper on Book of Mormon authorship that was written some time back by Criddle and Jockers and etc. is now available on-line:

G. Bruce Schaalje, Paul J. Fields, Matthew Roper, and Gregory L. Snow, "Extended Nearest Shrunken Centroid Classification: A New Method for Open-Set Authorship Attribution of Texts of Varying Sizes," Literary and Linguistic Computing.

http://llc.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/recent


The article actually appeared in the April Issue of Literary and Linguistic Computing, the very same publication that published the original Jockers study, after passing peer review.

Glenn wrote:Your concerns, as I have pointed out, with Bruce's work are equally applicable to the original Jockers study. Either way, absolute conclusions of authorship based on the original Jockers study are invalid.


Roger wrote:It would be nice if Bruce could either agree with or clarify the assertions you are making here.


Roger, I will quote Bruce from another post he made on page three of this thread:
Bruce Schaalje wrote:We used the same texts as Jockers et al., used the same authors as Jockers et al. with the addition of Joseph Smith, used exactly the same stylistic marker words as Jockers et al., and used the same underlying statistical model as Jockers et al. except that we took text size into account and didn’t force the method to choose one of the authors in the candidate set if the chapter was unreasonably far from the styles of all of the candidate authors.


You may want to go back and read the thread up to that point if you are worried about context. Based on that statement, would not a reasonable person conclude that if Bruce's methodology have some kind of problem not addressed by his enhancements, that problem would also be inherent in the work on which it is based?

Glenn
In order to give character to their lies, they dress them up with a great deal of piety; for a pious lie, you know, has a good deal more influence with an ignorant people than a profane one. Hence their lies came signed by the pious wife of a pious deceased priest. Sidney Rigdon QW J8-39
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Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _GlennThigpen »

Glenn wrote:Sure, Wright stood by his statement. When he saw the manuscript, and realized he had made a faux pas, he did what you are so really fond of, made an ad hoc explanation knowing full well that there was no other manuscript and could never be proven wrong.


Roger wrote:On the contrary! You're producing an ad hoc response to Wright! Wright mentioned the fact that Spalding had many manuscripts before Hurlbutt discovered MSCC. So being presented with one of Spalding's manuscripts is not adverse evidence! It is not a faux pas! That's just you mischaracterizing things. You just don't want to acknowledge that Wright said Spalding had many manuscripts and then later Hurlbut finds evidence to support Wright's assertion. There is no reason to doubt Wright when he tells us Spalding wrote manuscripts and then, lo and behold, we find one of them!


Roger, I have never disputed that Wright said that Solomon had many manuscripts. But he did not describe any of those manuscripts or the contents of them. However, Solomon' daughter, did describe them.
Matilda Spalding McKinstry, daughter of Solomon Spalding wrote:We carried all our personal effects with us, and one of these was an old trunk, in which my mother had placed all my father's writings which had been preserved. I perfectly remember the appearance of this trunk, and of looking at its contents. There were sermons and other papers, and I saw a manuscript, about an inch thick, closely written, tied with some of the stories my father had written for me, one of which he called, "The Frogs of Wyndham."


Glenn wrote:Actually Aaron Wright did not pointedly say or write anything of the kind. As you are well aware, that unsigned draft letter is in the handwriting of one Philastus Hurlbut. You do not know if what was written was a direct quote from Wright, or how much was an interpolation by Hurlbut himself.


Roger wrote:This just doesn't fly, Glenn, because all the Conneaut witnesses, including Wright, had ample opportunity to set the record straight if they thought Hurlbut had manipulated their statements. Howe's book was published and circulated right there in their immediate vicinity. At that point, they would have been minor celebrities. They had plenty of opportunity to set the record straight, and none of them ever did.


Roger, as you well know, that "draft letter" was never published in Howe's book for Wright to accept or deny. Also, the "corroborative" witness was a man conveniently dead about a manuscript conveniently missing.

Also none of the witnesses ever came forward to refute Benjamin Winchester's 1840 statement reporting that a man surnamed Jackson had refused to sign a Hurlbut affidavit because it was a small work and was some Romans.
They had plenty of opportunity to do so.

So, why did not Hurlbut get the letter signed and include it with the material he gave Howe?

The only real evidence that the document provides is an insight into how Hurlbut seemed to gather and present his information.

Glenn
In order to give character to their lies, they dress them up with a great deal of piety; for a pious lie, you know, has a good deal more influence with an ignorant people than a profane one. Hence their lies came signed by the pious wife of a pious deceased priest. Sidney Rigdon QW J8-39
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Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _MCB »

(Dickinson, E., 1885, p. 65-72)
“Well, Mr. Hurlburt, did you get the manuscript from Mrs. Davison?” I asked.
“Yes,” he replied, shaking still more violently-- “yes, I got one she gave me an order for.”
“Mr. Hurlburt” (for I dropped the Dr.), I remarked, getting up, and looking him steadily in the eye, “I am the person who wrote the magazine article you have just mentioned, the great-niece of Solomon Spaulding and the granddaughter of William H. Sabine, who gave the order for 'The Manuscript Found,' which you presented to Mrs. Davison at Munson, Mass, in 1834.”
He started, appeared to be quite alarmed, trembled excessively, and after a little gasped out in a faint
voice: “Is that so?”
Mrs. Hurlburt, a sweet-faced, sad-eyed old woman, who had admitted Mr. Kellogg and myself, came close to me, and, gently stretching her hand toward me, said: “Well, we will tell you what we know; we are willing to tell you.”
“I hope you will,” I replied, “as I have come from New York on purpose to see you on this subject, and if there is any one who ought to have the truth concerning “The Manuscript Found,” it is our family.”
Then I turned to Hurlburt, and asked: “Are you the Hurlburt who visited Mrs. Davison, my greataunt, in 1834?”
“Yes,” he replied.
“Did you get “Manuscript Found' at her order in Hartwick, N. Y., from Jerome Clark?”
“Yes; I got what they said was Spalding's manuscript. I was sent there by a man named E. D. Howe, of Painesville, Ohio. He wrote a book called “Mormonism Unveiled,' and he wanted to compare the Spaulding manuscript with the 'Book of Mormon.'”
“Did he think Mrs. Davison had the original manuscript?”
“Yes, I did.”
Here, Mrs. Hurlburt, who listened intently to this talk, went to a bureau and found a letter, which she handed to me, Hurlburt helping her to do so. I closely watched and listened to see if there was anything said between them. Their heads and hands were in close proximity as they bent over the drawer; and although I could hear nothing distinctly, I believe and always shall that he conveyed instructions to his wife as to her further conduct in the matter. The letter was from E. D Howe, of Painesville, the aged author of the book “Mormonism Unveiled.” Its purport was that he had seen the magazine article alluded to, and after a criticism on the statements made in it, he told Hurlburt that the manuscript which he (Hurlburt) had given him, in 1834, was burned, with other of his papers, in his office, etc.
After reading it I again looked significantly at both Mr. and Mrs. Hurlburt, and asked: “Do you believe the manuscript was burned?”
“Well, he says it was,” Hurlburt replied, greatly disturbed.
“Was it Spaulding’s manuscript that was burned?”
Hurlburt waited a moment before answering, his wife looking at him with a pleading, sad expression of countenance. “Mrs. Davison thought it was; but when I just peeped into it here and there and [Never?]saw the names Mormon, Maroni, Lamenite, Nephi, I thought it was all nonsense; why, if it had been the real one, I could have sold it for $3000; but I just gave it to Howe because it was of no account.”
“Had you any right to do so? You borrowed it, solemnly promising to return to Mrs. Davison.”
He grew still more disturbed, and replied; “Well, I forgot most all about it.”
“Did you intend to return it?” I asked, very slowly. Instead of answering, he told his wife to bring him another letter from the bureau, a kind of statement which he had made to send to Mr. Patterson, of Pittsburg, but would give to me. After reading it, I remarked: “Then you know the history of the Spaulding manuscript?”
“Oh, yes, all about it!”
“Were you a Mormon?”
“No,” he quickly answered.
“Yes, you were,” interposed his wife.
“Well, I suppose I was about a year,” said Hurlburt, reluctantly.
“Were you at Conneaut in 1834, at the time the Mormons met there and had their meeting?”
“Why, certainly,” he replied; “the Mormons sent me to get the manuscript from Mrs. Davison.”
“I thought you said Howe sent you.”
“Well, when I found the manuscript amounted to nothing, I gave it to Howe,” he replied, looking guilty.
[Here, Mrs. Dickinson's lawyer-friend and witness, interposes with an admonition to tell the truth.]
“Mr. Hurlburt,” I resumed, “do you know where 'The Manuscript Found' is at the present time?”
The old lady went close to Hurlburt, touched his shaking arms, looked up on his face, and said: “Tell her what you know.”
His face became perfectly scarlet, and his trembling increased. He turned...and almost screamed:
“Why, you must be crazy to ask such a question. Did I not say I gave it to E. D. Howe, and he says in the letter you read from him it was burned up in his printing house? Why, lady, if I knew where it was, I would give $1000 and my farm besides for it.”
“You know,” I laughingly said, “the report is you were paid $300 by the Mormons for the manuscript, and with that money bought this farm.”
He smiled for the first time, and replied” “Why, the Mormons hated me; they threatened me. I had a fight with Joe Smith, and had to have him bound to keep the peace with me.”
“Why did they hate you?”
“Well, it was something about that book, 'Mormonism Unveiled.'”.....
“Oh, Mr. Hurlburt, it all lies in a nutshell, and you can crack it. Do you think Solomon Spaulding wrote the story from which the Mormons made their book?”
“Yes; and no questions about it.”
“Well, then, where is the manuscript?”
“I think it was copied by Rigdon, and he kept the original, and Mrs. Davison had the copy.”
“But Mrs. McKinstry has sworn that her mother had what her father knew to be the original; and if
the exact copy, it would have answered Howe's purpose.”....
[His wife said] “Why, don't you see the one he got from Mrs. Davison Washington'n't no good?”
“Why did he not return it, then?”
“Well, Howe said he would; but then it got burned up.”
[A letter soon followed, dated August 1879, which supported LDS claims]
Huckelberry said:
I see the order and harmony to be the very image of God which smiles upon us each morning as we awake.

http://www.vatican.va/archive/ccc_css/a ... cc_toc.htm
_bschaalje
_Emeritus
Posts: 31
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:03 pm

Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _bschaalje »

Roger,

I’ll try not to bloviate, but I can’t guarantee it. I’m sorry about the hit and run. I was at a conference last week. I made the comment in the middle of the night when I couldn’t sleep. I was travelling home all day yesterday.

Marg said:
I haven't followed what your statistical study/studies is/are about. I have a vague idea on one aspect...which I believe is that according to your study the Jocker's study tells us nothing of value if the true or true author's writings are not included in the input to be studied.


I happened to meet Matt Jockers earlier this summer. He did a great job of hosting the Digital Humanities conference at Stanford, and we had a nice discussion there. I might be misstating his position, but I believe that Jockers himself simply saw their study as using a novel machine learning tool to preliminarily rank a tentative set of candidate authors for Book of Mormon chapters. The paper itself, of course, has much stronger language than that, actually giving completely unjustified authorship probabilities for the Book of Mormon chapters. I can only suppose that the overstated part of the paper was due to Craig Criddle.

I hesitate to simply say that “the Jocker's study tells us nothing of value if the true or true author's writings are not included in the input to be studied” because you might then say that the historical data convinces you that the true author was in the candidate set (especially if the set were expanded to include Joseph Smith) and therefore all conclusions of the Jockers et al. paper become valid. It’s not like that.

The salient point is that the Book of Mormon chapters are stylometrically distinct from all of the training texts (see my PCA plot or my goodness-of-fit test). Therefore the Jockers et al. results could only provide information about authorship of the Book of Mormon chapters:
1. if the true author of each of the Book of Mormon chapters was actually in the set of candidate authors, AND
2. if it was known that each author’s centroid would shift in exactly the same way if they deliberately ‘archaized’ their style.

We know nothing about number 2, so even if the true author was in the candidate set Jockers’ results provide no useful information.
_bschaalje
_Emeritus
Posts: 31
Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2010 8:03 pm

Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _bschaalje »

[/quote] Roger said:
On the other hand, Ben never said that I was misquoting him. Of course, like you, he thinks the real author is not among the candidate set, but the fact remains that (whether right or wrong) he asserted that when the real author IS among the candidates, then Jocker's methodology is quite accurate--again, that's according to Ben.[quote]

If a genre shift (like writing in archaic language) was not involved, I would (in a qualified way) agree with Ben. The Federalist application that Glenn referred to shows that. My qualification is that Jockers’ results would still be distorted because they ignored sizes of the training and test texts, because they used Rigdon texts from the 1863-1873 period (for which the provenance is not well established, and which are distinctly different stylometrically from the early Rigdon texts), and because many of the stylistic marker words they used were contextual (e.g ‘children’, ‘men’).

We recently submitted another paper to LLC in which we developed better ways to adjust for text sizes and choose the shrinkage coefficient, as well as to provide a measure of uncertainty for the authorship probabilities. We used the Federalist papers as training tests, and other non-Federalist writings (of different sizes and genres) by Hamilton, Madison and Jay as test texts. We still used open-set technology. Almost two-thirds of the test texts were correctly classified.
_MCB
_Emeritus
Posts: 4078
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2009 3:14 pm

Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _MCB »

“the Jocker's study tells us nothing of value if the true.. author's writings are not included in the input to be studied” because you might then say that the historical data convinces you that the true author was in the candidate set (especially if the set were expanded to include Joseph Smith) and therefore all conclusions of the Jockers et al. paper become valid.


And if one LOOKS at the chapters that Jockers indicates may have come from Spalding, Rigdon, or Smith, one sees that there is indeed a difference in content between the three sets. Military tragedy, theology, and autobiographical, in that order. And the tragedy of religiously motivated war chapters are richer in parallels with Monmouth, Maccabees, Acts, and Sturlason. Not really difficult.
Huckelberry said:
I see the order and harmony to be the very image of God which smiles upon us each morning as we awake.

http://www.vatican.va/archive/ccc_css/a ... cc_toc.htm
_Dan Vogel
_Emeritus
Posts: 876
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2007 1:26 am

Re: Response to Jockers, Criddle, et al., Now Available

Post by _Dan Vogel »

Roger,

Sure, Wright stood by his statement. When he saw the manuscript, and realized he had made a faux pas, he did what you are so really fond of, made an ad hoc explanation knowing full well that there was no other manuscript and could never be proven wrong.


On the contrary! You're producing an ad hoc response to Wright! Wright mentioned the fact that Spalding had many manuscripts before Hurlbutt discovered MSCC. So being presented with one of Spalding's manuscripts is not adverse evidence! It is not a faux pas! That's just you mischaracterizing things. You just don't want to acknowledge that Wright said Spalding had many manuscripts and then later Hurlbut finds evidence to support Wright's assertion. There is no reason to doubt Wright when he tells us Spalding wrote manuscripts and then, lo and behold, we find one of them!


Unfortunately, no one mentioned what the content of the MSS were. It would have been nice if Write would have mentioned that Spalding wrote a Roman story and an Israelite story. As it is, these other MS could have been sermons or other scholarly treatises on his skeptical matters. Nothing Wright told Hurlbut prepared him for the Roman story. If Wright’s memory was wrong in 1833, it was still wrong in his later statement.
I do not want you to think that I am very righteous, for I am not.
Joseph Smith (History of the Church 5:401)
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