World growth vs. Church growth

[_Who Knows]

I appreciate having someone else make a graph, but you seem to have made a couple of mistakes.

The biggest one is that the last data point (2006) appears to be equally spaced from 2000 as 2000 is from 1990. Did you make the graph a scatter plot? I recently got dinged on that little mistake.

The second one concerns percentage growth. It looks correct except for the last one. Again, remember that 2006 is only 6 years ahead of 2000 instead of 10. To properly scale with the other decades, I think you need to use this formula:

100* ((2^ (10/6 * ( LOG(pop2006, 2) - LOG(pop2000, 2) ) )) - 1)

10/6 represensts the inverse of the fractional number of decades spanned.

I'll be happy to try explaining more if you want.

Oh jeez dude. This is MDB, not MIT. ;)

[_asbestosman]

Oh jeez dude. This is MDB, not MIT. ;)

I wouldn't know. I only got accepted to BYU, USU, and UofU. ;)

Don't you work in finances? I guess the biggest difference is that you never have to worry about varying data intervals. '

(I wonder if the church's erroneous graph of growth was also the result of an unintentional error).

[_moksha]

I wouldn't know. I only got accepted to BYU, USU, and UofU. ;)

Obviously you were progressing in variable intervals.

[_Sethbag]

So, if you were to extrapolate a little, how many years would you say, at the present rates of growth for world population as well as LDS membership, for the LDS population to be, say, 5% of the total world population? That's not really "filling the world" per se, but lets just say that 5% is a serious chunk of world population. Would it get there, at present rates, in the next century?

Also, what happens if you take your growth rates and multiple the LDS growth rate by 1/3, as the approximate fraction of LDS membership that is "active" by some reasonable standard? If only the 1/3 of LDS population that is active is counted, does the rate of growth of the LDS church still exceed the rate of world population growth?

[_Who Knows]

I wouldn't know. I only got accepted to BYU, USU, and UofU. ;)

Just BYU for me.

Don't you work in finances? I guess the biggest difference is that you never have to worry about varying data intervals.'

I'm actually an auditor. But yes, i have an accounting degree from BYU. And no, I don't really deal with varying data intervals.

(I wonder if the church's erroneous graph of growth was also the result of an unintentional error).

what graph are you referring to?

[_Who Knows]

So, if you were to extrapolate a little, how many years would you say, at the present rates of growth for world population as well as LDS membership, for the LDS population to be, say, 5% of the total world population? That's not really "filling the world" per se, but lets just say that 5% is a serious chunk of world population. Would it get there, at present rates, in the next century?

I'm sure ABMan can give you a more accurate number. But based on my 'back of the napkin' calculation, the church would hit 5% around 2150. I just looked at average growth rates, and the difference between the average LDS and world population growth rates - very un-scientific.

Also, what happens if you take your growth rates and multiple the LDS growth rate by 1/3, as the approximate fraction of LDS membership that is "active" by some reasonable standard? If only the 1/3 of LDS population that is active is counted, does the rate of growth of the LDS church still exceed the rate of world population growth?

Umm, yes, it's exactly the same.

[_asbestosman]

So, if you were to extrapolate a little, how many years would you say, at the present rates of growth for world population as well as LDS membership, for the LDS population to be, say, 5% of the total world population? That's not really "filling the world" per se, but lets just say that 5% is a serious chunk of world population. Would it get there, at present rates, in the next century?

about 256 years.

But that figure doesn't take into account the fact that LDS growth rate is currently declining faster than world growth rate is.

Also, what happens if you take your growth rates and multiple the LDS growth rate by 1/3, as the approximate fraction of LDS membership that is "active" by some reasonable standard? If only the 1/3 of LDS population that is active is counted, does the rate of growth of the LDS church still exceed the rate of world population growth?

I think it is incorrect to multiply the growth rate by 1/3. Rather I will multiply the actual membership numbers by 1/3. Doing so leads me to estimeate that "active" membership will reach 5% in
343 years

[_Who Knows]

about 256 years.

But that figure doesn't take into account the fact that LDS growth rate is currently declining faster than world growth rate is.

Wow, look at me! I was more generous than you! I actually didn't really take into account the recent rate of decline. I was just looking at averages.

[_Who Knows]

Anyone have similar type numbers for any other religions? I'd love to get them on the same graphs.

[_asbestosman]

I wouldn't know. I only got accepted to BYU, USU, and UofU. ;)

Just BYU for me.

That's the only one I attended. I just applied to all three before my mission and finally decided to go to the Y in my last few months (The Y gave me the best scholarhip even though it was only for 1 year).

Don't you work in finances? I guess the biggest difference is that you never have to worry about varying data intervals.'

I'm actually an auditor. But yes, I have an accounting degree from BYU. And no, I don't really deal with varying data intervals.

Certainly beats me. I kinda envy you knowing about accounting. I wish I knew how to better handle my money. My strategy tends to follow that of my hero Jack Benny: don't spend it.

(I wonder if the church's erroneous graph of growth was also the result of an unintentional error).

what graph are you referring to?

It was referred to on MA&D some time ago here