LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000

[_Rollo Tomasi]

I will wager a small amount that missionaries are required to buy these iPads from an approved source and that someone other than Apple Inc. will be making money from it.

I had the same thought. Some 'middleman' (LDS, of course!) is going to get rich off this (and the Church will get its 10% cut, too).

[_canpakes]

Evans said the church, as of Wednesday, had 85,593 missionaries serving, up from the previously publicized record of 85,039 in April.

He said the missionary department anticipates the number to rise to 88,000 this fall before starting to decrease.

LDS Church President Thomas S. Monson precipitated the dramatic two-year surge in missionary numbers when in October 2012 he lowered the age requirement from 19 to 18 years old for male missionaries and from 21 to 19 for women.

Elder Evans, who called the surge "one of the greatest faith-inspiring things I've ever seen," said the church expects the number of missionaries will eventually settle somewhere in the high 70,000s, well above the 58,000 serving at the time of President Monson's announcement.

"We don't believe we're ever going back to the 50,000s," Elder Evans said.

Remember this statement.

I'm about the farthest thing from a mathematician that you can find, but I find Evan's statement curious.

Isn't the 'surge' a temporary effect of having a new pool of younger applicants enter the missionary ranks on top of the existing older set? And won't the numbers decline back to 58,000 (plus or minus a few thousand) after a few years have passed and the 'overlap' population have returned from their missions?

The same total number of men eligible to serve a mission has not changed; we've just 'cooked the books' by allowing a larger subset to suddenly be part of those ranks. After that, the normal rotation through the same overall population continues.

Perhaps my atrocious math abilities are causing me to somehow not see Evan's logic; if so, can someone explain to me how the higher current participation numbers could be maintained otherwise?

[_Fence Sitter]

It will never be released, but I would be very interested in the % of missionaries coming home early before the age change and after.

[Guest]

I'm about the farthest thing from a mathematician that you can find, but I find Evan's statement curious.

Isn't the 'surge' a temporary effect of having a new pool of younger applicants enter the missionary ranks on top of the existing older set? And won't the numbers decline back to 58,000 (plus or minus a few thousand) after a few years have passed and the 'overlap' population have returned from their missions?

The same total number of men eligible to serve a mission has not changed; we've just 'cooked the books' by allowing a larger subset to suddenly be part of those ranks. After that, the normal rotation through the same overall population continues.

Perhaps my atrocious math abilities are causing me to somehow not see Evan's logic; if so, can someone explain to me how the higher current participation numbers could be maintained otherwise?

They are going to stay higher, though I doubt the levels predicted. Look at the increased numbers
of girls going. The increase in female missionary numbers are not going to go down significantly and there will be less loss of the males deciding not to go due to the year of maturing outside of high school and away, in some instances, from mom and dad.

[_Sammy Jankins]

It will never be released, but I would be very interested in the % of missionaries coming home early before the age change and after.

The Newsroom claims it is relatively the same.

Mission leaders report that the early return rate for elders and sisters has gone up, but it is very close to the proportional rise in the entire number of the missionary force. “As we have more missionaries, we're going to have more of everything,” said Elder Evans.

[Guest]

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/c ... onary-work

[_Fence Sitter]

It will never be released, but I would be very interested in the % of missionaries coming home early before the age change and after.

The Newsroom claims it is relatively the same.

Mission leaders report that the early return rate for elders and sisters has gone up, but it is very close to the proportional rise in the entire number of the missionary force. “As we have more missionaries, we're going to have more of everything,” said Elder Evans.

I have only anecdotal evidence but I find that very hard to believe.

[_CameronMO]

I have only anecdotal evidence but I find that very hard to believe.

Me too.

[_Fence Sitter]

They seriously do not understand how out of touch with the electronic age the following paragraph makes church leaders sound.

A pilot program put iPad Minis in the hands of about 6,500 missionaries in 30 missions in the United States and Japan, as well as with sister missionaries in most LDS visitors centers. Elder Evans described four lessons learned by church leaders.

First, missionaries were very comfortable and capable using the devices. Second, the devices increased the reading and studying done by the missionaries. Third, they were effective planning tools. Fourth, they helped missionaries communicate better with local church leaders, mission leaders and investigators.

Well duh X4!

Who writes something like that?

Oh look it is 2014 and we just figured out young people are good with electronic devices !!!!!

I wonder if they understand how easy it will be for their young male users to abuse these devices?

[_zeezrom]

Remind me what these kids need iPads for?