The Church to close missions due to reduction in numbers

[_I have a question]

March 2015

"We're projecting out probably within four years," apostle Jeffrey R. Holland told a radio interviewer, "the base-line number for the missionary force will be something around 100,000."

http://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?i ... type=CMSID

Let’s just consider what Jeff said back in 2015, three years after the age reduction announcement.

He, and presumably his colleagues, were looking at projections that can only have assumed that the missionary numbers at the height of the surge would grow from that point out, up to 100,000 in 2019. In other words, they were projecting that missionary numbers wouldn’t decline after the surge.

What a spectacularly wrong projection.

Who produced it and how could otherwise reasonably intelligent men (who went to good schools, and read a few books) not see how fundamentally flawed it was? When the age reduction was announced, posters on here produced some projections showing the surge ‘bubble’ and then a resettling to a level higher than before. (I think posters might even have estimated it settling to around 70,000 post bubble, but I could be misremembering to suit my point).

[_Stem]

Let’s just consider what Jeff said back in 2015, three years after the age reduction announcement.

He, and presumably his colleagues, were looking at projections that can only have assumed that the missionary numbers at the height of the surge would grow from that point out, up to 100,000 in 2019. In other words, they were projecting that missionary numbers wouldn’t decline after the surge.

What a spectacularly wrong projection.

Who produced it and how could otherwise reasonably intelligent men (who went to good schools, and read a few books) not see how fundamentally flawed it was? When the age reduction was announced, posters on here produced some projections showing the surge ‘bubble’ and then a resettling to a level higher than before. (I think posters might even have estimated it settling to around 70,000 post bubble, but I could be misremembering to suit my point).

I would guess Holland simply didn't know what he was saying. it was likely he was shown some sort of graph or chart showing the increase in missionaries. It is likely, at least to me, he took that to mean, if he followed the line he'd see it reaching 100,000 within the next couple of years. I doubt anyone who was actually projecting out thought that the number would only increase from that point on. But people have made some egregious errors before when offering projections.

Even in 2015 I think everyone who was talking about, figured Holland didn't' know what he was talking about, or a huge change was coming that would only increase the number of missionaries.

[_Shulem]

There are some missionaries that live a few doors down from me. I saw them getting into their car the other night and they looked really depressed. I hope they find a way to cheer up. Maybe they could go dancing or hiking. It really is sad to see them so depressed and wearing the clothes of a CEO.

My nephew got back from South Korea a year ago and didn't enjoy his mission. He was depressed pretty much the whole time and there were no baptisms. Nobody will talk to the missionaries.

[_I have a question]

The First Presidency has announced a public open house of the newly expanded Missionary Training Center (MTC) in Provo, Utah, July 31 through August 19, 2017, with additional tours available August 21-25 for registered BYU Education Week participants. Open house tickets will be available beginning Monday, July 10.

In October 2012, President Thomas S. Monson announced that men can serve at age 18 instead of 19, and women can serve at age 19 instead of 21. MTC expansion projects in Provo, Mexico, Ghana, and the Philippines will allow the 15 MTCs around the world to continue to accommodate training of the growing missionary force.

https://www.LDS.org/church/news/public- ... c?lang=eng

The Church spent millions and millions of tithe payer dollars expanding the capacity of the MTC estate, at the exact moment in time when the number of missionaries was reducing. I wonder who got the building contracts...

[_moksha]

Reports of an increase of issues in the mission field pertaining to mental health and depression.

That could help explain the increased emphasis on mental health history in the new set of missionary interview questions.

[_Shulem]

Reports of an increase of issues in the mission field pertaining to mental health and depression.

That could help explain the increased emphasis on mental health history in the new set of missionary interview questions.

The bar is being raised and it's going to knock a lot of candidates out of the picture. There is no question that missionary numbers (especially boys) is going to drop significantly. All this harassment over sexuality, mental health, and criminal past is going to thin the ranks.

[_I have a question]

The bar is being raised and it's going to knock a lot of candidates out of the picture. There is no question that missionary numbers (especially boys) is going to drop significantly. All this harassment over sexuality, mental health, and criminal past is going to thin the ranks.

That’s right, raising the bar automatically reduces the numbers. Which will exacerbate the reductions currently being experienced. Just when they’ve built all this shiny, new, expensive additional MTC capacity...

[_Craig Paxton]

The details I believe they aren't sharing. After settling nearly all the increase is among sisters. Number of elders is still in decline and either already at or below pre-surge levels. Number of people coming home early has gone through the roof, anecdotal evidence places this around 15-20%. Reports of an increase of issues in the mission field pertaining to mental health and depression. Due to the increase in sisters a lot of changes to the way missionary work is conducted, like reporting stats, etc. Number of those going inactive/leaving post mission has risen. Baptisms have dropped.

Nelson says, "still way up from the 58,000 we had," yeah, I guess, but what are the fruits of that increase?

Salt Lake, we have a problem...

[_Shulem]

a trimming of the number of missions to better fit the needs of each region of the world

Time to trim the excess fat. The church bit off more than it could chew and expected more than what the harvest would yield. The church miscalculated. The church screwed up. The church is forced to reduce its expenses and lop of heads.

I'm tickled pink just knowing that the axeman is going to be killing off missions and consolidating its assets in order to keep the ink in the black.

[_Craig Paxton]

There is no doubt there are more full-time missionaries serving now than before the age change. But there are not as many more serving as the apostles prophesied there would be. Moreover, the missionaries who are serving are becoming even less effective at winning converts than they were before (and they weren't very effective before), to wit:

In 2010 there were 52,275 full-time missionaries and a church membership of 14,131,467. So, 0.37% of the church membership served as missionaries. In 2010, the church experienced a growth rate of 2.22%.

In 2016 there were 70,946 full-time missionaries and a church membership of 15,882,417. So, 0.45% of the church membership served as missionaries. In 2016, the church experienced a growth rate of 1.59%.

The church missionary force in 2016 was 35.7% larger than it was in 2010 but church membership grew at a rate that was 28% slower than 2010's growth rate. The convert/missionary ratio in 2010 was 5.22. In 2016 it was 3.38.

So the church has more missionaries serving, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of overall membership but is producing fewer converts both in raw numbers and on a per-missionary basis. If the missionaries who are serving had merely matched the convert per missionary ratio of 2010, the church would have added 370,338 new converts in 2016; instead they recorded only 240,131.

Church growth relative to world population growth was also the lowest it has ever been, at just a tick above 0.5%. All other things being equal, one would expect the church to grow at the same rate as the world's population. But with over 70,000 missionaries preaching the gospel message, the church grew at a rate barely above baseline. And remember, these are all the church's own numbers, which we have reason to believe are the rosiest possible spin on things. The "growth" reflects only who was dunked and counts everyone who was baptized even those who never set foot in a meetinghouse afterward.

The sad truth is that 99.9999% ( ok not that many but you get the point ) of current LDS believers still believe the the church is still the fastest growing religion on the face of the earth