Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

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_Philo Sofee
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Philo Sofee »

Chap wrote:
Philo Sofee wrote:That's right.... I don't know. Those who claim to one way or another don't either. It's not something we can know. Belief is not knowledge


People seem to think that you are saying something like "Because I have come to think that the resurrection story is not historical, I am now having serious doubts whether Jesus existed at all." Some posters seem to be quite disturbed by what they think you are saying. Clearly there is no logical implication from "X did not rise from the dead" to "X did not exist".

But so far as I can see from a look at recent posts, you don't seem to be saying anything like that. It seems to be more that the experience of losing your previous confidence in the resurrection narrative has led you to want to re-examine the basis for other commonly held beliefs about Jesus - and why shouldn't it?

The beliefs under re-examination will naturally include (at one extreme) his existence as a historical person. But I read you as saying on that topic that the evidence is too slim for us to be completely sure either way - which seems pretty reasonable to me. Am I understanding you correctly?


Yes, that's pretty close.
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_Jersey Girl
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Let me say this in the hopes of clarifying what my intentions were so I can get off the thread and stop causing distractions.

1. It looked to me like you were blurring the lines between the historical and resurrected Jesus.

2. I, personally, think that using BT or any other type of tool (besides researching and using your own brain to come up with your conclusions) is a waste of time. It's a conclusion that you're going to arrive at, not a fact.

3. That said, if you were going to use BT or some other type of tool, I wouldn't want to see someone using evidences from the resurrected to weigh out the existence of the historical Jesus.

4. In your responses, it looked like you were still blurring the lines. I'm almost certain that you were.

5. None of this is any of my business. I would just like to know that you know what your target is before you start shooting at it. Again, not my business.

I hope that's clear enough.
Last edited by Google Feedfetcher on Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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_Jersey Girl
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Philo Sofee wrote:Jersey Girl:
my intention was to ask him (and I did quite clearly so) if he thought that the resurrected Jesus cancelled out the historical Jesus. In response, I got what appeared to be defenses/arguments. I sequenced the concepts as well as my intention at least twice, in order to boil it down. I demonstrated how simple the question was by posting the responses of two other posters to the question that I posed.


To them perhaps it was a simple answer, but not to me. It's not that simple. Religion has done a gigantic disservice to us by simplifying everything way out of control and pretending it is simple. History is never simple. Logic is never simple. Belief might be, but then that has nothing to do with what is real. It's why I answer the way I do. Sorry, that's just the way I am.


Give me strength.

1. If the historical Jesus didn't exist, then neither did the resurrected Jesus.

2. If the resurrected Jesus never existed, that doesn't rule out the existence of the historical Jesus that the stories grew up around.

It IS a simple answer. It doesn't get any simpler than that.

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_Philo Sofee
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Philo Sofee »

Jersey Girl:
my intention was to ask him (and I did quite clearly so) if he thought that the resurrected Jesus cancelled out the historical Jesus. In response, I got what appeared to be defenses/arguments. I sequenced the concepts as well as my intention at least twice, in order to boil it down. I demonstrated how simple the question was by posting the responses of two other posters to the question that I posed.


To them perhaps it was a simple answer, but not to me. It's not that simple. Religion has done a gigantic disservice to us by simplifying everything way out of control and pretending it is simple. History is never simple. Logic is never simple. Belief might be, but then that has nothing to do with what is real. It's why I answer the way I do. Sorry, that's just the way I am.

Give me strength.

1. If the historical Jesus didn't exist, then neither did the resurrected Jesus.

2. If the resurrected Jesus never existed, that doesn't rule out the existence of the historical Jesus that the stories grew up around.


Fair enough..... I gather that. Carrier noted as much in his book "On the Historicity of Jesus."
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_Kishkumen
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Kishkumen »

Philo Sofee wrote:Plutarch's story of Romulus (which incidentally provides a near flawless skeleton outline to the story of Jesus, hence the real possibility it's just a story) is in the same boat. Just because it's in print means nothing about what it is, or what it means, or whether its real or not. There is just too much we can never know about this Jesus character.


OK, Philo Sofee, I can't let this slip past. First, let me reiterate that I like you, respect your openness, and also have a positive interest in the mythicist perspective. That said, what you have written above is characteristic of the historical confusion I too often see among those who are interested in the historical Jesus (existent or not). Do you recall when a prominent LDS apologist told his readers that there was as much historical evidence for Jesus as there was for Alexander the Great?

Well, he was wrong. And a number of us, especially Mr. Stak, have pointed out just how spectacularly wrong he was. There is, after all, a mountain of evidence for the existence of Alexander the Great, which includes autopsy accounts of his life as preserved in later authors. I believe Jesus existed, but I don't view the evidence for his existence to be anything close to the quality or quantity of evidence for the existence of Alexander the Great; I don't care how many times Christian and Mormon apologists trot out this completely daft comparison.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have people, usually mythicists, assuming that all ancient thinkers did not know the difference between an account of Heracles and an account of Pericles, or the difference between a biography of Romulus and one of Julius Caesar. While I can't speak for every last ancient author out there, we have very good reason to believe that they did understand the difference between such figures. Take, for example, this passage from the preface of Livy's From the Founding of the City (History of Rome), first century BC:

The traditions of what happened prior to the foundation of the City or whilst it was being built, are more fitted to adorn the creations of the poet than the authentic records of the historian, and I have no intention of establishing either their truth or their falsehood. This much license is conceded to the ancients, that by intermingling human actions with divine they may confer a more august dignity on the origins of states. Now, if any nation ought to be allowed to claim a sacred origin and point back to a divine paternity that nation is Rome.


In the poetic material described above, the stuff Livy would not vouch for but would nevertheless include in his history, Romulus is to be found. You see, in antiquity writers wrestled with the value of this material, and included or excluded it for various reasons. It was not the case that no one questioned the validity of including Romulus in a history because no one could appreciate the potential problems involved. So, you can't blithely talk about how Plutarch wrote about Romulus and Jesus is just like that. This shows a spectacular lack of critical thinking that would even raise eyebrows back in the days when the gospel authors and Plutarch were writing.

Let's consider a couple of basic points:

1) Romulus purportedly lived in the 8th century BCE. Regarding this period of Roman "history," we lack any primary sources, any autopsy, describing the lives and events of the Roman people. This is most certainly not the case for the first century CE Roman empire and its relationship with the Palestine of the time. Here we have written accounts, epigraphic information, coins, etc.

2) Plutarch is writing roughly 900 years after Romulus supposedly lived, and he is well aware of the fact that he is writing of a figure who is largely legendary. Plutarch knew the difference between writing about Romulus and writing about Caesar (whom he also wrote a biography on). The authors mentioning Jesus started writing a couple or few decades after his death. (I include Paul, by the way. I do not buy into this idea that he is writing about his imaginary mythical friend.)

3) While it is definitely the case that historical figures were likened to characters like Romulus, the tendency to assimilate such figures to a mythological character or pattern does not invalidate their historicity. As I have tried to show above, well-documented figures (Caesar, Augustus, etc.) were theologized and mythologized, and that does not weigh against their existence.

4) If there is sufficient direct or indirect evidence of their existence, the wiser historical choice is to judge in favor of historicity, not to conclude with great confidence that the person was NOT historical. In the case of Romulus we lack any direct and even decent indirect evidence for his life. One can safely say that he most likely did not exist. In the case of Jesus, we may lack good direct evidence for his life, but the abundance of good indirect evidence for his existence is the reason why most responsible historians believe he probably existed.

5) The historical existence of the mythologized Caesar and the historical existence of the mythologized Jesus do not compel me, or even persuade me, to worship either one. And this last bit is why I have a difficult time with the mythicist perspective as an attack on Christianity. It is misleading. It supposes that people's bad thinking can be exploited in order to persuade them not to follow their chosen religious path. It is one thing to say that we have no way of validating the miracles of Jesus. It is another to say we can conclude he did not exist. The latter is terribly disingenuous and methodologically irresponsible.
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_Chap
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Chap »

Kishkumen wrote: It is one thing to say that we have no way of validating the miracles of Jesus. It is another to say we can conclude he did not exist.


Yup. It is possible (just about) that Jesus did not exist. But it is far more likely that a charismatic person of that name did exist and was active around 30 - 33 AD, and that miracle stories accumulated around his name, both during his lifetime and after. I mean, that happens all the time, even today:

http://www.dlshq.org/download/miracles.htm#_VPID_7

This Sivananda, whose packets of ashes sent by post all over the world, as Prasad of Lord Visvanath in the temple of the Ashram, have not only been curing the headaches of the housewives in the city of Bombay, acting as laxative to chronic constipation patients in Singapore, but proved to have breathed a new vigorous life into the dying bones of men in South India—who is he? This Godhead redeemer, this Sivananda, who makes his presence palpably felt by a devotee in Geneva and chats with another in Kuala Lumpur—who is he?


Despite the miraculous constipation cures, Sivananda was a real person who once walked this earth ...
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_sock puppet
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _sock puppet »

Chap wrote:
Kishkumen wrote: It is one thing to say that we have no way of validating the miracles of Jesus. It is another to say we can conclude he did not exist.


Yup. It is possible (just about) that Jesus did not exist. But it is far more likely that a charismatic person of that name did exist and was active around 30 - 33 AD, and that miracle stories accumulated around his name, both during his lifetime and after. I mean, that happens all the time, even today:

It is unremarkable. To paraphrase Droopy, about historical Jesus and the fact a myth was spun around him, we might say "nothing to see here, move along."
_Philo Sofee
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Philo Sofee »

For my good friend kishkumen I must say I thoroughly enjoyed reading your response yes this is the idea discuss the issues I'm on a mobile device right now I shall return to this as I can maybe tonight maybe tomorrow night but thank you for giving your input I value everyone's input after all we're all just trying to learn what really is and what truth is this is simply awesome it's why I love this board
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_Jersey Girl
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Philo Sofee wrote:
Kishkumen wrote:
Um, yes, Philo Sofeee, I have read his blog. Probably a dozen or so entries. I have read his nauseatingly boastful style. His polemics. His putdowns. His oversharing about his polyamorous lifestyle choices.

Trainwreck.


Yeah he's human but that's irrelevant to his argument and its validity but I do understand your point.
I wish he was a little more reasonable as such but he's not. I still find his argument fascinating and his use of Bayes theorem very intriguing because of how I can now have a better tool to analyze my belief system. That is why I'm so turned on with Bayes theorem not necessarily Richard carriers materials or his attitude.


Likewise, so was Joseph Smith human. Would you say that Joseph Smith's indiscretions were irrelevant to the state of his character?

Not trying to derail. Looking at another side of the coin in terms of in whom we place our trust.
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_Chap
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Chap »

Philo Sofee wrote:Yeah he's human but that's irrelevant to his argument and its validity but I do understand your point. I wish he was a little more reasonable as such but he's not. I still find his argument fascinating and his use of Bayes theorem very intriguing because of how I can now have a better tool to analyze my belief system. That is why I'm so turned on with Bayes theorem not necessarily Richard carriers materials or his attitude.


Jersey Girl wrote:Likewise, so was Joseph Smith human. Would you say that Joseph Smith's indiscretions were irrelevant to the state of his character?


Not a very close parallel, I suggest. Smith demands our belief in all kinds of stuff that depends on his word alone, such as the First Vision(s), the appearance of Moroni, the discovery of gold plates and so on ... followed by a string of revelations vouchsafed by God. If we think he is a deceiving philanderer who lied to his wife, his personal credibility is thereby greatly diminished, and that is crucial to our belief in his claims.

Carrier may not be a nice person - indeed he may be rather horrible (I don't know). But if he puts forward arguments based on reasoning from historical evidence, we would normally have no problem in finding ourself evaluating the claims largely independently of his character. There are quite a lot of historical scholars out there who are not at all nice people.

(Of course if there are signs of gross dishonesty, we would evaluate the evidence he puts forward with extra special care. But does Carrier show signs of that?)

NB that I am not at present inclined to adopt what I gather are Carrier's vies about the historicity of Jesus.
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
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