World growth vs. Church growth

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_asbestosman
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Post by _asbestosman »

Who Knows wrote:
asbestosman wrote:about 256 years.

But that figure doesn't take into account the fact that LDS growth rate is currently declining faster than world growth rate is.


Wow, look at me! I was more generous than you! I actually didn't really take into account the recent rate of decline. I was just looking at averages.


Not bad, but Sethbag asked "at the present rates of growth", not averages ;)

Personally I think it's proper to expect the percentage to continue leveling off. Population statistics often do that as the population eventually fills its niche. I'm sure The Dude or some other biologist would be a better authority on what to expect with population stats that I am.
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_Who Knows
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Re: Who Knows

Post by _Who Knows »

asbestosman wrote:Certainly beats me. I kinda envy you knowing about accounting. I wish I knew how to better handle my money. My strategy tends to follow that of my hero Jack Benny: don't spend it.


Knowing accounting doesn't really say much about knowing how to handle your money. Honestly, I'm not that good at it.

Your strategy is about as good as it gets. It's more about controlling your impulses than it is about knowing the dollars and cents and debits and credits.

If you can control your impulses, you're fine. Unfortunately, I have a problem with that. ;)

Oh, and I don't see a graph in the link to the LDS.org website in the MAD thread (there's a distribution map there now instead). Maybe they took it down?
WK: "Joseph Smith asserted that the Book of Mormon peoples were the original inhabitants of the americas"
Will Schryver: "No, he didn’t." 3/19/08
Still waiting for Will to back this up...
_asbestosman
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Re: Who Knows

Post by _asbestosman »

Who Knows wrote:Oh, and I don't see a graph in the link to the LDS.org website in the MAD thread (there's a distribution map there now instead). Maybe they took it down?


I don't see it either, but this post is a superposition of the old graph with a corrected one.
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Post by _Who Knows »

asbestosman wrote:Personally I think it's proper to expect the percentage to continue leveling off. Population statistics often do that as the population eventually fills its niche. I'm sure The Dude or some other biologist would be a better authority on what to expect with population stats that I am.


I think it's probably similar to anything else - or any 'product' out there. It hits some type of 'saturation point'.

I know I joked about your graph the other day, calling it a bell curve, but I believe that's the typical path that products take.
WK: "Joseph Smith asserted that the Book of Mormon peoples were the original inhabitants of the americas"
Will Schryver: "No, he didn’t." 3/19/08
Still waiting for Will to back this up...
_asbestosman
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Re: Who Knows

Post by _asbestosman »

Who Knows wrote:Knowing accounting doesn't really say much about knowing how to handle your money. Honestly, I'm not that good at it.

Your strategy is about as good as it gets. It's more about controlling your impulses than it is about knowing the dollars and cents and debits and credits.

If you can control your impulses, you're fine. Unfortunately, I have a problem with that. ;)

The problem being that my wife doesn't like living with a skinflint. I'd make Jack Benny blush if I could have my way. ;) But in any case, I think my problem is that I don't really know how to invest the money that I'm saving. Should I put it into a nicer house, a CoD, the stock market, or what? I just don't have a good enough grasp of risk vs possible payoff. I understand expected value and averages, but it's not quite the same thing.
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Post by _It occurs to me . . . »

Thanks for all the feedback. I mainly made it to illustrate a point. I think I'll leave the graph making to the big kids.;)
_Who Knows
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Re: Who Knows

Post by _Who Knows »

asbestosman wrote:The problem being that my wife doesn't like living with a skinflint. I'd Jack Benny blush if I could have my way. ;) But in any case, I think my problem is that I don't really know how to invest the money that I'm saving. Should I put it into a nicer house, a CoD, the stock market, or what? I just don't have a good enough grasp of risk vs possible payoff. I understand expected value and averages, but it's not quite the same thing.


I'm not sure anyone has a 'good grasp' on it all.

I just have a house that only requires 30% of my income, and then save 10% in a market indexed mutual fund, and that's basically it. I try not to worry about all the other crap - putting some money here, some there, cd's, stock market, bonds, etc.

It's not worth the time or headaches man.
WK: "Joseph Smith asserted that the Book of Mormon peoples were the original inhabitants of the americas"
Will Schryver: "No, he didn’t." 3/19/08
Still waiting for Will to back this up...
_gramps
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Re: Who Knows

Post by _gramps »

asbestosman wrote:
Who Knows wrote:Knowing accounting doesn't really say much about knowing how to handle your money. Honestly, I'm not that good at it.

Your strategy is about as good as it gets. It's more about controlling your impulses than it is about knowing the dollars and cents and debits and credits.

If you can control your impulses, you're fine. Unfortunately, I have a problem with that. ;)

The problem being that my wife doesn't like living with a skinflint. I'd make Jack Benny blush if I could have my way. ;) But in any case, I think my problem is that I don't really know how to invest the money that I'm saving. Should I put it into a nicer house, a CoD, the stock market, or what? I just don't have a good enough grasp of risk vs possible payoff. I understand expected value and averages, but it's not quite the same thing.


Hi everyone.

I was in the investments business for some time. I would recommend anyone and everyone to take a Series 7 license course, or just get the materials and study it yourself. You will know all the basics and then be able to talk with your favorite investment advisor intelligently.

The problem will be that the advisor knows all the same stuff, but will not lead you to the right investments often because the good investments don't provide the commissions for the advisor that he/she needs to make a living and to satisfy his desires (and his wife's, which is more often the determining factor).

The "rule of 72" is always good to keep in mind. If you're getting 3% at a bank, for example, it will take approximately 24 years to double your money (compunding figured in). Ouch! The stock market (large cap stocks, over 30 years or so) has returned around 10% on your money. Well, then to double your money, it takes approximately 7 years. Small cap stocks have returned a little better, around 13% or so. So, 5 or 6 years to double your money.

Of course, if you pull your money out of the market at the bottom of a cycle, then it all comes to naught anyway. Who knows when one retires whether the cycle will be at the bottom or not? That is the big gamble.

Of course, property (a house, for example) values go through a cycle as well, but seems to be a little more secure in order to help one figure out how much one will have after 30 years.

Why doesn't someone start a thread on investments and we can go through some of the basic stuff and talk through what makes sense and what doesn't, given the current situation in the markets and the economy? That might be fun!

When I was in the business, you could purchase 30-year government zero coupon bonds at 9%. 9%! That was incredible for AAA rated bonds. And zero coupon bonds were wonderful for a retirement plan or IRA. I fear what they can be purchased for today. I haven't checked recently, but I am sure it ain't 9%. That is why so many people are jumping into the market, to try to get a better return in hopes they can retire according to plan. They won't be able to, I fear.

Anyway, my .02.
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Adrian Beverland
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Post by _Inconceivable »

Growth of church compared to population growth... relevance to what?

That the acceptance of Plan of Salvation is still statistically a failure in terms of mortal population numbers compared to those that simply chose to come to earth for the free body?
_Pokatator
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Post by _Pokatator »

How many baptisms for the dead does one Mormon child have to do to break even?
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