Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

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_Analytics
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Analytics »

Kishkumen wrote:First of all, Rufus is the last person I would send you to in order to learn about myth. Try reading some Bruce Lincoln, Jonathan Z. Smith, and Peter Berger. Again, those are much better places to start. Your description of his course is sufficient for me to dismiss this as an adequate starting point.


Thanks for the recommendations--I'm looking forward to going book shopping.

Kishkumen wrote:Maybe you should also add Bart Ehrman's Orthodox Corruption of Scripture. Look, seriously, someone could take Rufus' definition of "myth" and apply it to practically any piece of literature. We could say that Herodotus brought together the traditions of different sources and placed them together to "convey the Greeks' highest values and truths."


Just to clarify, what I said wasn't the definition of myth--they were characteristics of myth. It sounds like you knew (or knew of) Rufus Fears? I certainly wouldn't consider listening to him for 18 hours to be a substitute for a real college course, but it was interesting and accessible.

Kishkumen wrote:The only difference here, as far as Rufus' definition of myth is concerned, is that we have a better idea of who Herodotus was than we do Mark. One doesn't generally assume that Mark is a scribe who is committing an oral performance of God Jesus' greatest hits (for one thing, he doesn't even portray Jesus as God) from a centuries-old tradition. Also, I am a little puzzled as to why you believe that we need to treat Gospel literature differently than we would treat, say, Greek literature that contains myths.


I didn't mean it needed to be treated differently--my point was to treat Mark the way that I listened to Rufus treat myths in the "course" I referenced, many of which were in fact based on Greek literature. Sure, we can treat it as literature too, but as I have less exposure and thoughts of that approach, it is a bit of a conversation stopper.

Kishkumen wrote:
Analytics wrote:Paul wrote about what Christ revealed to him directly—that is the basis and content for what he wrote. I don’t know the basis or relevance of this theory of yours that Paul was writing about somebody of little consequence out of the blue, nor the theory that the gospel myth is based upon somebody that was not thought to have existed. Surely Paul thought that the Jesus that appeared to him was real and of superlatively high consequence.


Actually, he was writing about someone others had told him about too. He was quoting earlier Christian material. So, no, he wasn't just conveying what Jesus revealed to him personally. He wasn't writing in a vacuum. Paul is not the first follower of Jesus.


Of course. My point was that Jesus wasn't a random person of no consequence that Paul decided to start writing about out of the blue.

Kishkumen wrote:
Analytics wrote:Again, nobody is proposing a theory that Jesus was some guy that was “made up.” According to the mysticist theory, the Christians thought that Jesus was very real. They thought that this real Christ was sent to a real plane of existence to perform real deeds, which he really did. They thought all of this was real.


So, which tradition did this mythical Christ come from? If Paul is our earliest extant source about Jesus, and he is quoting material that tells us Jesus was born of a woman, and the seed of David, then where is the earlier material in which he is neither human nor the seed of David? Where do we find evidence of this earlier stratum of myth that gets turned into the Jesus of the Gospels? And what is the evidence supporting Jesus' connection to this earlier myth? Is this earlier Jesus Heracles, or Osiris, or Enoch?


Excellent questions. I can refer you to a book that explores some of these issues if you'd like. But your point really seems to be that we shouldn't give the mystic theory any consideration until all of these questions are definitively answered. But is that really fair? The historicity theory has lots of unanswered questions too. I'll simply say that in general, we don't necessarily need to answer every question about how something unfolded in order to answer some questions about how it unfolded.
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Kishkumen »

Analytics wrote:Just to clarify, what I said wasn't the definition of myth--they were characteristics of myth.


Definition or characteristics, either way it is inadequately specific. Of course, this is one of those areas of profound disagreement.

Analytics wrote:It sounds like you knew (or knew of) Rufus Fears? I certainly wouldn't consider listening to him for 18 hours to be a substitute for a real college course, but it was interesting and accessible.


I have read Rufus Fears' work and I know of him by reputation. Based on his area of expertise I would not recommend him as an important authority on myth. He is a Roman historian like myself. The bigger issue is the level at which this course is pitched.

Analytics wrote:as I have less exposure and thoughts of that approach, it is a bit of a conversation stopper.


Fair enough.

Analytics wrote:Of course. My point was that Jesus wasn't a random person of no consequence that Paul decided to start writing about out of the blue.


And my point is that in the sources he quotes, there is little or no indication that Jesus was a God who was dressed up in historical clothes.

Analytics wrote:Excellent questions. I can refer you to a book that explores some of these issues if you'd like. But your point really seems to be that we shouldn't give the mystic theory any consideration until all of these questions are definitively answered. But is that really fair?


I think it is definitely crucial to be able to identify which deity or angelic being that Jesus is supposed to have been before he was biographized. If there is nothing close to a convincing answer to that question, that would represent a huge problem for mythicists.
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Analytics »

Kishkumen wrote:
Analytics wrote:Just to clarify, what I said wasn't the definition of myth--they were characteristics of myth.


Definition or characteristics, either way it is inadequately specific. Of course, this is one of those areas of profound disagreement.


I see your point, and went back to recheck Fears' words. His specific words were, "Myths are the means by which all societies in all times have conveyed the highest truths." That's a bit different than what I originally said. I thought you would like this point--it is similar to what you said about their being patterns in ancient literature.

Part of Fears' point is that when heroes do great things, almost immediately myths about them start to pop up. He gives lots of examples of this. He then approaches the question from the other side: is it possible there is a kernel of historical truth to ancient myths?

Kishkumen wrote:I have read Rufus Fears' work and I know of him by reputation. Based on his area of expertise I would not recommend him as an important authority on myth. He is a Roman historian like myself. The bigger issue is the level at which this course is pitched.

Fair point. I'm sure you've spent tens of thousands of hours looking at this stuff deeply and broadly. An 18-hour "course" doesn't even begin to touch the surface--much less scratch it. But on the other hand, that's basically the level I'm at.

Kishkumen wrote:And my point is that in the sources he quotes, there is little or no indication that Jesus was a God who was dressed up in historical clothes.

Of course, but restating your position isn't the same thing as making an argument in favor of it.

Analytics wrote:Excellent questions. I can refer you to a book that explores some of these issues if you'd like. But your point really seems to be that we shouldn't give the mystic theory any consideration until all of these questions are definitively answered. But is that really fair?


Kishkumen wrote:I think it is definitely crucial to be able to identify which deity or angelic being that Jesus is supposed to have been before he was biographized. If there is nothing close to a convincing answer to that question, that would represent a huge problem for mythicists.


Do you need a specific convincing answer, or merely some plausible possibilities? I would think some plausible answers are all that are needed.

Addressing your question, the deity that Jesus "is supposed to have been before he was biographized" was the deity that went by the name Jesus Christ. The oldest parts of The Ascent of Isaiah paint a picture of the mystic God called Jesus Christ. Granted, this was probably written after the gospels, but it theoretically indicates what Christianity may have looked like before the gospel story was invented.

But where did the concept of the pre-gospel God Jesus Christ come from? Carrier suggests that it was an interpretation and combination of a couple of savior figures alluded to in the heterogeneous Jewish beliefs of the day, that were further influenced by both Roman thought and a strong need for fresh answers to the problems the Roman occupation was causing Judaism.

That seems like a plausible story to me.

I personally find the related questions under the historicity hypothesis more troubling: did Jesus really have 12 disciples that followed him around while he was alive? Did 11 of those 12 really claim to see him after he was crucified? Why did they stop preaching almost everything that Jesus allegedly taught while he was alive, and replace it with the salvation-through-faith-in-Jesus-who-was-crucified-and-resurrected gospel, which is so consistently taught in the epistles but not in the gospels? And why didn't they ever talk about anything that Jesus allegedly did or said before the crucifixion? And then why did they suddenly become interested in his life 30+ years after he was dead?
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Kishkumen »

Analytics wrote:Of course, but restating your position isn't the same thing as making an argument in favor of it.


I figured you were aware of Paul's quotations of earlier creeds and topics like Adoptionism. That is why I didn't bother to argue it. You could look this stuff up yourself. Or maybe Philo Sofee wants to chime in. In any case, there is a fair amount of evidence, some of which I have referenced already, that Jesus was first thought to be a human being who was exalted by God at his baptism or later.

I am not trying to be rude. I just have a house full of guests and I am trying to wrap up the semester before I move 1000 miles.

Analytics wrote:Addressing your question, the deity that Jesus "is supposed to have been before he was biographized" was the deity that went by the name Jesus Christ. The oldest parts of The Ascent of Isaiah paint a picture of the mystic God called Jesus Christ. Granted, this was probably written after the gospels, but it theoretically indicates what Christianity may have looked like before the gospel story was invented.


In other words, this is akin to saying that the Gospel of John is not a development of Christianity; it is, in fact, the oldest Gospel--something that has indeed been proposed. You probably predicted before you posted this that I would not be persuaded that a later text--one that saw its first Christian interpolation in the late first century CE--represents the earliest version of Jesus. I prefer to look at the non-Pauline material Paul quotes, and even Mark, as more representative of earlier Christianity for obvious reasons: they predate the Ascension of Isaiah.

But where did the concept of the pre-gospel God Jesus Christ come from? Carrier suggests that it was an interpretation and combination of a couple of savior figures alluded to in the heterogeneous Jewish beliefs of the day, that were further influenced by both Roman thought and a strong need for fresh answers to the problems the Roman occupation was causing Judaism.

That seems like a plausible story to me.


All that is required is evidence of such a mystical Jesus Christ that predates the earliest Christian texts.

I personally find the related questions under the historicity hypothesis more troubling: did Jesus really have 12 disciples that followed him around while he was alive? Did 11 of those 12 really claim to see him after he was crucified? Why did they stop preaching almost everything that Jesus allegedly taught while he was alive, and replace it with the salvation-through-faith-in-Jesus-who-was-crucified-and-resurrected gospel, which is so consistently taught in the epistles but not in the gospels? And why didn't they ever talk about anything that Jesus allegedly did or said before the crucifixion? And then why did they suddenly become interested in his life 30+ years after he was dead?


Yes, those are interesting questions. I sometimes wonder whether Q. Lutatius Catulus really dreamed he saw the toddler Augustus in the lap of Capitoline Jupiter before he ever met him, and then recognized him as the boy in his dream upon first encountering him. Or, rather, I don't wonder, because it is almost certainly not a true story, and yet it does not make Augustus any less of a real person. Likewise, I am not very concerned whether Jesus had exactly 12 apostles or his followers thought the number 12 was nifty because it matched the number of the tribes of Israel.

As for Paul's choice to teach about the cross and the resurrection instead of an apocalyptic message, while Jesus did the opposite, well, I would suppose that has something to do with the fact that Jesus did not get to preach about the theological significance of what had not happened to him yet, while to Paul those were the most salient events in Jesus' biography. On a related topic, James doesn't exactly teach what you describe. And, of course, we might chalk up some of these differences you refer to... bet you saw this coming... to genre. A letter is not a biography. The conventions are quite different. The medium is the message.

Still, I agree that there are many interesting questions that are perhaps impossible to resolve adequately. I don't see how they prompt us to turn to late pseudepigrapha in the hopes of finding a secret key to the true story of Jesus, but they are irresistably engaging. I do get the fascination. Part of me would love for Jesus to be a figure of pure imagination, who was later given an earthly existence. But when I consider the evidence presented to suport the mystical Jesus in place of the purportedly inadequate embellished-real-guy Jesus, it is weak on its face. I see late first century or later texts and ideas that wishing won't turn into 45 CE texts and ideas.
Last edited by Guest on Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Symmachus »

I think this has moved on a little from when I last posted, but I just want to point out a few things in fewer words than I have been.

Analytics, I think I was not making my point as clear as I would have liked. First, let me say that since mythic presentation were such a pervasive mode of constructing any message (ideological, religious, political, historical, moral, etc.), the mere presence of mythic in one part of an ancient narrative is by no means grounds for rejecting the historicity of the narrative as a whole. It's a pretty useless criterion for determing whether there was a historical Jesus.

I am not saying, as you seemed to think, that because the Gospels have a historical detail (namely, Pilate), that therefore the historicity of Jesus as settled. What I am saying is subtler than that. The analogy to Forrest Gump made me laugh before it made me cry: if that's the logic I wrote, it's not the logic in my head. Actually, someone like Pilate would be analogous not to a US president in the 60s but to the attorney general of Alabama in the 60s: Pilate would have been relatively unknown to overwhelming majority of Greek-readers in the empire in 70, probably not too well known even in Judea, since Pilate hadn't been there in more than a generation and was never a very significant presence when he was there, since the Herodian dynasty still basicaly administered Judea. Pilate was an agent of Augustus looking out for the emperor's interests, not a military commander in charge of an occupation force. He was rarely in Jerusalem, headquartered at Caesarea on the sea, and was largely concerned to make sure that local dynasts and discontents didn't affect Augustus's foreign policy with Persia by playing one side against the other (which in fact had happened, or was alleged to have happened, at least).

The way I see it, someone has to put that detail in there, which suggests either 1) it was passed down as part of the stories about Jesus or 2) it was inserted deliberately. The second seems highly unlikely for the basic reason I have stated over and over again, namely that invented stories about non-existent people don't work on that level of specificity and accuracy in antiquity. That's the sort of thing that a modern reader would be alert to, especially a modern novelist, but not ancient one. I therefore think 1) more likely. I don't see it as really a problem, from a historicist point of view, that Pilate's role is not portrayed with full accuracy in the gospels, but it is also telling that whoever wrote them understood the ambiguous nature of the Roman presence in Judea and felt it was worth capturing.

On the point of allegory, I would suggest reading some ancient allegories. You probably know Plato's story of Er in Book 10 of the Republic. I think that has some typical features of allegory: it is self-consciously and explicitly allegorical (i.e. there is no chance you could confuse this as history), and the historical details it does give are general rather than particular (e.g. Er is Pamphylian and dies in battle, but which and when is not given). Jesus's parables themselves are allegories, and, like the story of Er, are particular in the moral truths they are used to illustrate, but very non-specific in circumstantial details. The gospels on the other are very particular in their details, even if those details are not always right. So we do not have a parallel to the mythicist position in any ancient allegories with stories that are explicitly invented for the purpose of moral or philosophical or theological instruction.

Likewise, you might read Philostratus's Life of Apollonius of Tyana, another miracle-working moral teacher (of sorts). Even in antiquity he and Jesus were points of comparison, but the reason I mention here is because it will give you a parallel to the historicist position: a wandering Syrian spreads his teaching while wonder-working on the side and is later executed and ascends to the heavens. We have a historical person here around whom miraculous stories accrued. He was even worshiped by a Roman emperor a hundred years before Constantine. So we have a parallel. Yes, it's later, but unlikely to be influenced by Christianity.

The gospels read like an ancient attempt at biography among some Greek-speakers of moderate education. At least one of them was Jewish (Matthew), one probably not (Luke), and two definitely not (Mark and John). Why you think the gospels read as allegory from throughout is beyond me. They are primarily Jesus going from place to place saying X, Y, and Z, and occasionally performing some miracles. Just like Apollonius. Three of the gospels have him come back from the dead. The earliest does not have that (textual critics have established that the ending was added later; originally it ended with just his empty tomb but is actually ambiguous about what that means). Since we have ancient allegory, since we have ancient allegorizations of the Christian gospels (e.g. Gnostic texts like the Apocryphon of John), and since we even have theories of allegory among ancient writers, we know what allegory was thought to be. The gospels don't line up. I find your presentation of Carrier's thesis to be an implausible one; I find the historicist position eminently plausible.

And, yes, we need to ask how the mechanics of the mythicist position really could have worked. That is the basic task of any historian advancing a thesis, and if they can't show how their explanation actually worked, then it's not much of an explanation. Kish's question above distilled this problem perfectly. Otherwise, we're just doing what apologists do with the Book of Abraham and Book of Mormon: presenting a cluster of impressionistic resemblances and passing them off as if they constituted a body of evidence, then assuming that, since a body of evidence exists for the apologists position, it is as plausible as any other.

Analytics wrote:
Do you need a specific convincing answer, or merely some plausible possibilities? I would think some plausible answers are all that are needed.


If they can't show how this actually worked or can't point to any examples, then it's not plausible. Find me the allegory cast as a biography (so that no one can really tell it's an allegory) that goes out of its way to situate the allegorized god in a human context where god can never be humanized (first century Judaism) in very specific geographical, cultural, and political stages, and of course set in only the last thirty or forty years, and you might have an example which would establish at least that this kind of thing happened. But there is no example. That is only one reason why the mythicist position seems implausible. I have given others.

Analytics wrote:Addressing your question, the deity that Jesus "is supposed to have been before he was biographized" was the deity that went by the name Jesus Christ. The oldest parts of The Ascent of Isaiah paint a picture of the mystic God called Jesus Christ. Granted, this was probably written after the gospels, but it theoretically indicates what Christianity may have looked like before the gospel story was invented.


It just shows what an allegorized deity actually looks like. It also shows what in fact was a general trend: historical intepretations come first, allegorized interpretations only later. Homer was believed to be historical long before the allegorists got to work on him in Alexandria, and long before Christian bishops anxious about their Hellenic heritage followed suit.

Analytics wrote:I personally find the related questions under the historicity hypothesis more troubling: did Jesus really have 12 disciples that followed him around while he was alive? Did 11 of those 12 really claim to see him after he was crucified? Why did they stop preaching almost everything that Jesus allegedly taught while he was alive, and replace it with the salvation-through-faith-in-Jesus-who-was-crucified-and-resurrected gospel, which is so consistently taught in the epistles but not in the gospels? And why didn't they ever talk about anything that Jesus allegedly did or said before the crucifixion? And then why did they suddenly become interested in his life 30+ years after he was dead?


Key questions. There are 150 years worth of scholarly labor that have provided some pretty good answers to these questions. Obviously I can't summarize all of them in a small space, but I have found persuasive E. P. Sanders on Paul, and John Meier, E. P. Sanders, and Paula Frederiksen on Jesus (especially "From Jesus to Christ"). Given that these are some of the most influential scholars in the field, I am puzzled that they receive such little mention on these sorts of threads.
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

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Symmachus wrote: Obviously I can't summarize all of them in a small space, but I have found persuasive E. P. Sanders on Paul, and John Meier, E. P. Sanders, and Paula Frederiksen on Jesus (especially "From Jesus to Christ"). Given that these are some of the most influential scholars in the field, I am puzzled that they receive such little mention on these sorts of threads.


Would you recommend those to someone like me follows these threads with great interest and who really has little education in this area? Or might you recommend something else?
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Symmachus »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Symmachus wrote: Obviously I can't summarize all of them in a small space, but I have found persuasive E. P. Sanders on Paul, and John Meier, E. P. Sanders, and Paula Frederiksen on Jesus (especially "From Jesus to Christ"). Given that these are some of the most influential scholars in the field, I am puzzled that they receive such little mention on these sorts of threads.


Would you recommend those to someone like me follows these threads with great interest and who really has little education in this area? Or might you recommend something else?


Depends on the book. Sanders and Meier are intensely scholarly and detailed in some of their books (Meier's historical Jesus series is I think up to it's fourth fat volume, which I haven't read yet), but Sanders and Frederiksen also write for a general audience in other books. Both have written inexpensive books about a historical Jesus, and Sanders just put out a new book about Paul that, while it is very long, is still quite readable.

And I should add just one thing to my post, because when I read it now it looks like I'm being dismissive in that last paragraph of Analytics's questions by throwing some names at him, which is not my intention. I think the kind of questions he asks require microscopic and painstaking arguments to walk through; they're not easily settled. And people will have fierce disagreements (the fiercer in direct proportion to the smallness of the problem in question, of course). I'm just pointing out some scholars who I think work through problems with fairness and respect for the evidence in its own context. But taken as a whole and not just looking at microscopic arguments, the historicist position is plausible because we have other examples of this process and we know that ancient people thought that that sort of thing thing happened (which means they probably observed it happening). The idea that human beings could be later thought to be divine figures is not controversial, and the gospels fit that neatly. I'm not sure that either of those two holds true for the mythicist position in broad terms: we don't have accounts that ancients believed that that sort of thing happened and we don't have any examples of it actually happening. To me that makes it implausible, and when I start picking at some of the microscopic implications of it, I find that implausibility confirmed.
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Thank you, Symmachus.
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _ludwigm »

I would suggest King Jesus by Robert Graves.

It is not as scientific as the ones mentioned above, but easy to read; I've found it very interesting, because of unorthodox approach.

In a "Historical Commentary" published at the end of the book Robert Graves remarks, concerning the book's historical basis, "A detailed commentary written to justify the unorthodox views contained in this book would be two or three times as long as the book itself, and would take years to complete; I beg to be excused the task ...[but]...I undertake to my readers that every important element in my story is based on some tradition, however tenuous, and that I have taken more than ordinary pains to verify my historical background"
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Re: Very nice overview of Bayes Theorem and Historical Jesus

Post by _bubbachen »

I just wanted to add my thanks and high regard for the posters on this thread, not only for the content which reverberates with both subtlety and crystal clarity, but also for your honestly kind and empathetic manner of communication. I come away with a more enlightened mind and heart. Thank you all.
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