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Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:24 pm
by _The Mighty Builder
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Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:36 pm
by _Bazooka
canpakes wrote:I'm about the farthest thing from a mathematician that you can find, but I find Evan's statement curious.
Isn't the 'surge' a temporary effect of having a new pool of younger applicants enter the missionary ranks on top of the existing older set? And won't the numbers decline back to 58,000 (plus or minus a few thousand) after a few years have passed and the 'overlap' population have returned from their missions?
The same total number of men eligible to serve a mission has not changed; we've just 'cooked the books' by allowing a larger subset to suddenly be part of those ranks. After that, the normal rotation through the same overall population continues.
Perhaps my atrocious math abilities are causing me to somehow not see Evan's logic; if so, can someone explain to me how the higher current participation numbers could be maintained otherwise?
I think for the Evan's statement "we are not going back to the 50,000's" to work out a bigger proportion of the available age group need to decide to serve a mission.
If 28,500 was the typical yearly uptake prior to the age range and this represented 75% of all available young men and women, then for this to go to above 35,000 (as Evans is claiming it will) more than 75% need converting into serving missionaries. Of course the age reduction might mean a massively bigger proportion of young women serve, thereby boosting the number without the men needing any improvement.
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:38 pm
by _No_Hidden_Agenda
The Mighty Builder wrote:From eBay:
http://deals.ebay.com/top Today's Top Deals
Apple iPad Mini 64GB Wi-Fi & 4G Verizon or AT&T 1st Generation Tablet New Sealed
$360 regularly $659.00
45% off list price
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Save some money Mormon Mommies and Dummies, go to eBay and tell that Mormon Corporation to suck your "Balls"
The one the Church sells the missies for $400 will most likely be 16GB without cellular and maybe without Wifi. Regular price $299 at the Apple store and that not the scrubbed, corporate model.
Someone in SLC is making bank.
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:41 pm
by _Bazooka
No_Hidden_Agenda wrote:The one the Church sells the missies for $400 will most likely be 16GB without cellular and maybe without Wifi. Regular price $299 at the Apple store and that not the scrubbed, corporate model.
Someone in Salt Lake City is making bank.
This^
What happens for all those young men and women who already own iPads...
Will they be required to buy another one?
Will they be required to send it off for assimilation into an approved content version?
This initiative has not been thought through.
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:49 pm
by _Tchild
canpakes wrote:
I'm about the farthest thing from a mathematician that you can find, but I find Evan's statement curious.
Isn't the 'surge' a temporary effect of having a new pool of younger applicants enter the missionary ranks on top of the existing older set? And won't the numbers decline back to 58,000 (plus or minus a few thousand) after a few years have passed and the 'overlap' population have returned from their missions?
The same total number of men eligible to serve a mission has not changed; we've just 'cooked the books' by allowing a larger subset to suddenly be part of those ranks. After that, the normal rotation through the same overall population continues.
Perhaps my atrocious math abilities are causing me to somehow not see Evan's logic; if so, can someone explain to me how the higher current participation numbers could be maintained otherwise?
The "surge" pulled demand forward (18 year olds that would have gone at 19, left with the ongoing 19 year. old group). Mathematically, after the surge, the numbers ought to stabilize to the pre-surge levels.
My guess is that if the numbers stay higher after the surge, it would be due to capturing a segment of LDS youth that would have otherwise gone off to college and ended up not going on a mission like many 18 year old Mormons have done in the past. Now that the bar is set at 18, fewer Mormon men will have the lure of life and opportunities to dissuade them from a mission from that tender 18-19 year old age when they venture out into the world away from home.
Mormon leaders have cast that ol' "Yoke of Christ" onto the 18 year. olds to reel in more missionaries. Like Dave Chappell would say; "Gotcha bitches".
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:53 pm
by _Equality
The surge will taper off and settle at some point above pre-surge levels because more women will serve as a result of the age being lowered from 21 to 19.
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 6:56 pm
by _Bazooka
Equality wrote:The surge will taper off and settle at some point above pre-surge levels because more women will serve as a result of the age being lowered from 21 to 19.
That's what I was trying to say, although I used a lot more words to make a less clear point!
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:00 pm
by _Quasimodo
The Mighty Builder wrote:From eBay:
http://deals.ebay.com/top Today's Top Deals
Apple iPad Mini 64GB Wi-Fi & 4G Verizon or AT&T 1st Generation Tablet New Sealed
$360 regularly $659.00
45% off list price
FREE SHIPPING!
Check it out
Save some money Mormon Mommies and Dummies, go to eBay and tell that Mormon Corporation to suck your "Balls"
Yeah, but does it come with the official missionary browser, Moroni Gold ®, that limits browsing to only officially approved web sites? And what about the secret backdoor that allows COB IT folks to log keystrokes and examine the user's hard drive?
Remember, the 'LDS safe iPad' can only be purchased at official web sites.
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:01 pm
by _Sammy Jankins
No_Hidden_Agenda wrote:The one the Church sells the missies for $400 will most likely be 16GB without cellular and maybe without Wifi. Regular price $299 at the Apple store and that not the scrubbed, corporate model.
Someone in SLC is making bank.
I think without cellular is a safe bet. Data plans for all those IPADs would be a huge monthly expense. Looking at the models on Apple's website, there is a $400 iPad if you get it with "retina display." Which seems unneeded for missionary use.
Sucks to be those families who are already supporting a missionary to have an unexpected extra $400 expense thrown at them. What does the church do with its money?
Re: LDS missionary numbers to peak at 88,000
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2014 7:05 pm
by _Bazooka
Sammy Jankins wrote:What does the church do with its money?
Helps the poor and needy