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I'd like to find out if Joseph Smith made any 'falsifiable' prophecies. An example might be Robertson's prophecy that the US would be hit by a tsunami during 2006, or that there would be mass killings in the US during 2007. These prophecies are falsifiable in the sense that they're very specific in terms of the nature of the event and the timing.

A non-falsifiable prophecy would apply where people are free to say 'well, it just hasn't happened yet', or 'it was based on the faith of the members and they're not faithful enough', etc.

Critics are often told that they haven't proven any of Joseph Smith's prophecies false. So this is the reason for my question - were any of them actually falsifiable?

Who Knows wrote:I'd like to find out if Joseph Smith made any 'falsifiable' prophecies.
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Critics are often told that they haven't proven any of Joseph Smith's prophecies false. So this is the reason for my question - were any of them actually falsifiable?

A famous one was Joseph Smith's prophecy to the Kirtland stake high council on February 14, 1835:

“President Smith then stated that the meeting had been called, because God had commanded it; and it was made known to him by vision and by the Holy Spirit. He then gave a revelation of some circumstances attending us while journeying to Zion .. our trial, sufferings; and said God had not designed all this for nothing, but He had it in remembrance yet; and it was the will of God that those who went to Zion, with a determination to lay down their lives, if necessary, should be ordained to the ministry, and go forth to prune the vineyard for the Last time, or the coming of the Lord, which was nigh -- even fifty-six years would wind up the scene.” (History of the Church, vol. 2, p. 182) (emphasis added).

Alas, February 14, 1891, came and went ... and we are still waiting.

Rollo Tomasi wrote:A famous one was Joseph Smith's prophecy to the Kirtland stake high council on February 14, 1835:

“President Smith then stated that the meeting had been called, because God had commanded it; and it was made known to him by vision and by the Holy Spirit. He then gave a revelation of some circumstances attending us while journeying to Zion .. our trial, sufferings; and said God had not designed all this for nothing, but He had it in remembrance yet; and it was the will of God that those who went to Zion, with a determination to lay down their lives, if necessary, should be ordained to the ministry, and go forth to prune the vineyard for the Last time, or the coming of the Lord, which was nigh -- even fifty-six years would wind up the scene.” (History of the Church, vol. 2, p. 182) (emphasis added).

Alas, February 14, 1891, came and went ... and we are still waiting.

But I'm not sure even that is 'falsifiable', since he said that it was the will of god that those who went to zion should be ordained to the ministry and go forth to prune the vineyard for the last time, or, the coming of the lord... Thus, there's a vague qualifier.

But it is a good one.

Anyways, I'm not just looking for prophecies critics believe were false. I'm looking for any prophecy that could actually be falsifiable - even ones where TBM's claim the prophecy actually occurred.

In other words - were all of Joseph Smith's prophecies unfalsifiable (unimpressive) or were some of them falsifiable (impressive)?

Who Knows wrote:But I'm not sure even that is 'falsifiable', since he said that it was the will of god that those who went to zion should be ordained to the ministry and go forth to prune the vineyard for the last time, or, the coming of the lord... Thus, there's a vague qualifier.

I never read the "or" as a qualifier; I read "coming of the Lord" and "Last time" as synonyms, rather than creating alternatives. Otherwise, the Second Coming was contingent on their action, which always seemed unreasonable to me. But your interpretation is certainly reasonable.

Rollo Tomasi wrote:I never read the "or" as a qualifier; I read "coming of the Lord" and "Last time" as synonyms, rather than creating alternatives. Otherwise, the Second Coming was contingent on their action, which always seemed unreasonable to me. But your interpretation is certainly reasonable.

That's exactly my point - that this prophecy, much like Joseph Smith's other prophecies aren't really 'falsifiable' in the first place. Unless someone can give me some examples.

Who Knows wrote:That's exactly my point - that this prophecy, much like Joseph Smith's other prophecies aren't really 'falsifiable' in the first place. Unless someone can give me some examples.

Some other possibilities (all emphasis mine):

1. D&C 117:12 (July 18, 1838): "And again, I say unto you, I remember my servant Oliver Granger; behold, verily I say unto him that his name shall be had in sacred remembrance from generation to generation, forever and ever, saith the Lord."

Oliver died in Kirtland in 1841, and is virtually unknown today, even by TBM's. This prophecy could easily be fulfilled by erecting a statue of the man on Temple Square. ;)

2. D&C 84:1-5 (September 1832): Building of city of New Jerusalem, beginning at the temple lot, in the "western boundaries of the State of Missouri." We still have time!!!

3. D&C 114:1-2 (April 17, 1838): Direction to Apostle David W. Patten to prepare to serve a mission, along with other 11 apostles, "next spring." We know this means the Spring of 1839 because D&C 118:5 (July 8, 1838) designates April 26, 1839, as the date the 12 will leave for the mission.

The problem: David Patten is killed during the Battle of Crooked River in October 1838, and is not around "next spring" or on April 26, 1839 (unless the Lord meant a mission for Patten to Spirit Prison).

4. D&C 87:1-6 (Dec. 25, 1832): Even if this revelation refers to the American Civil War to come in the 1860's (which is debatable), that war did not lead to war being "poured out upon all nations, beginning at this place [South Carolina]" (v. 2), nor did it affect "the inhabitants of the earth" or lead to a "full end of all nations." (v. 6).

5. "President Smith, in concluding his remarks, said that if the government, which received into its coffers the money of citizens for its public lands, while its officials are rolling in the luxury at the expense of its public treasury, cannot protect such citizens in their lives and property, it is an old granny anyhow; and I prophesy in the name of the Lord God of Israel, unless the United States redress the wrongs committed upon the Saints in the state of Missouri and punish the crimes committed by her officers that in a few years the government will be utterly overthrown and wasted, and there will not be so much as a potsherd left, for their wickedness in permitting the murder of men, women and children, and the wholesale plunger and extermination of thousands of her citizens to go unpunished." (History of the Church, vol. 5, p. 394).

The U.S. government did not redress the Saints for the harm done in Missouri ... yet, the U.S. government remains.

6. "While discussing the petition to Congress, I prophesied, by virtue of the holy Priesthood vested in me, and in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ, that, if Congress will not hear our petition and grant us protection, they shall be broken up as a government, and God shall damn them, and there shall be nothing left of them — not even a grease spot." (Millennial Star, vol. 22, p. 455; see also History of the Church, vol. 6, p. 116).

The aforementioned petition was not heard nor was protection ever granted (Deseret News, vol. 1, p. 59) ... yet, the U.S. Congress remains.

7. D&C 111:4 (Aug. 6, 1836): Neither Salem, MA nor its "gold or silver" were ever given to Joseph Smith or the Saints.

8. "And now I am prepared to say by the authority of Jesus Christ, that not many years shall pass away before the United States shall present such a scene of bloodshed as has not a parallel in the history of our nation; pestilence, hail, famine, and earthquake will sweep the wicked of this generation from off the face of the land, to open and prepare the way for the return of the lost tribes of Israel from the north country. The people of the Lord, those who have complied with the requirements of the new covenant, have already commenced gathering together to Zion, which is in the state of Missouri; therefore I declare unto you the warning which the Lord has commanded to declare unto this generation, remembering that the eyes of my Maker are upon me, and that to him I am accountable for every word I say, wishing nothing worse to my fellow-men than their eternal salvation; therefore, 'Fear God, and give glory to Him, for the hour of His judgment is come.' Repent ye, repent ye, and embrace the everlasting covenant and flee to Zion, before the overflowing scourge overtake you, for there are those now living upon the earth whose eyes shall not be closed in death until they see all these things, which I have spoken, fulfilled." (History of the Church, vol. 1, pp. 315-16).

More Missouri destruction; as before, there's still time!

Thanks for those Rollo. I'll have to save that to my hard drive. I don't think any of them are falsifiable - in other words, there's an escape route for all of them.

How about prophecies that TBM's feel have been fulfilled? Are any of them 'falsifiable'? (meaning - even though a TBM feels the prophecy has been fulfilled - was it falsifiable to begin with? Do they have terms that would potentially make them false - if those terms were not met - a.k.a. specifics as to time, event, place, etc.)

Rollo Tomasi wrote:Some other possibilities (all emphasis mine)....

Great list, Rollo! I just posted it to an MA&D thread titled "False Prophesies of Joseph Smith (put up or shut up)," where Scott Lloyd proclaims:

Bluster all you want. The fact remains, you haven't been able to show even one definitive example of a failed prophecy.

Your accusation is doomed because it is based on a false premise, to which you are clinging desperately even as it sinks into the abyss, that being that all of the revelations given through Joseph were irrevocable, unconditional predictions of the future.

I know this frustrates you terribly, but them's the facts.

The Dude wrote:

Rollo Tomasi wrote:Some other possibilities (all emphasis mine)....

Great list, Rollo! I just posted it to an MA&D thread titled "False Prophesies of Joseph Smith (put up or shut up)," where Scott Lloyd proclaims:

Bluster all you want. The fact remains, you haven't been able to show even one definitive example of a failed prophecy.

Your accusation is doomed because it is based on a false premise, to which you are clinging desperately even as it sinks into the abyss, that being that all of the revelations given through Joseph were irrevocable, unconditional predictions of the future.

I know this frustrates you terribly, but them's the facts.

I wonder if Scott ever heard of confirmation bias?

Who Knows wrote:How about prophecies that TBM's feel have been fulfilled?

The one I always here about is the Civil War prediction by Joseph Smith. I've seen it a few times but don't know the wording. Anyone got a reference?

Bond