LDS church to have 5 billion+ members...

[_Mephitus]

Someone at the MAD board concocted a poll on LDS growth and asked posters’ opinions as to what they *think* will be the church’s active membership* be in 100 years. The poll gave 20 choices ranging from “fewer than 250,000 active members” to an astounding “More than five billion active members.” (!!!!) * What constitutes “active membership” is not defined.

The majority voted between 50-100 million and, surprisingly, 6% voted for more than five billion.

Also, check out the two polls in follow-up to the poll about projected church growth.

http://www.mormonapologetics.org/index. ... 22774&st=0

Another example of Mormon delusional ideas, wishful thinking and indication that despite the writing on the wall, Mormons really believe their membership is going to go gang busters someday? Evidence that the church’s tenuous growth stats are kept from the masses? Or that Mormons are just statistically impaired?

[_Jason Bourne]

Someone at the MAD board concocted a poll on LDS growth and asked posters’ opinions as to what they *think* will be the church’s active membership* be in 100 years. The poll gave 20 choices ranging from “fewer than 250,000 active members” to an astounding “More than five billion active members.” (!!!!) * What constitutes “active membership” is not defined.

The majority voted between 50-100 million and, surprisingly, 6% voted for more than five billion.

Also, check out the two polls in follow-up to the poll about projected church growth.

http://www.mormonapologetics.org/index. ... 22774&st=0

Another example of Mormon delusional ideas, wishful thinking and indication that despite the writing on the wall, Mormons really believe their membership is going to go gang busters someday? Evidence that the church’s tenuous growth stats are kept from the masses? Or that Mormons are just statistically impaired?

A GA who I consider a friend discussed this in a leaders training. He mentioned Stark's projectiosn of someting like 180 Million in 50 years or so. The Church thinks that is way to high and is planning for growth to about 65,000,000 in 50-75 years. That is probably not unrealistic.

[_Bond...James Bond]

Someone at the MAD board concocted a poll on LDS growth and asked posters’ opinions as to what they *think* will be the church’s active membership* be in 100 years. The poll gave 20 choices ranging from “fewer than 250,000 active members” to an astounding “More than five billion active members.” (!!!!) * What constitutes “active membership” is not defined.

The majority voted between 50-100 million and, surprisingly, 6% voted for more than five billion.

Also, check out the two polls in follow-up to the poll about projected church growth.

http://www.mormonapologetics.org/index. ... 22774&st=0

Another example of Mormon delusional ideas, wishful thinking and indication that despite the writing on the wall, Mormons really believe their membership is going to go gang busters someday? Evidence that the church’s tenuous growth stats are kept from the masses? Or that Mormons are just statistically impaired?

5 Billion members? You'd have to be an absolute moron to think that (but that's relative at MAD, where they collect morons like I collected baseball cards).

Let's be realistic. The church claims 12.5 million after 160 years, and with the information out on the Internet people just aren't buying the rotton fruitcake of a story anymore. If the church has 30 million (with active members over 10 million) by 2100 I would be shocked.

[_harmony]

Someone at the MAD board concocted a poll on LDS growth and asked posters’ opinions as to what they *think* will be the church’s active membership* be in 100 years. The poll gave 20 choices ranging from “fewer than 250,000 active members” to an astounding “More than five billion active members.” (!!!!) * What constitutes “active membership” is not defined.

The majority voted between 50-100 million and, surprisingly, 6% voted for more than five billion.

Also, check out the two polls in follow-up to the poll about projected church growth.

http://www.mormonapologetics.org/index. ... 22774&st=0

Another example of Mormon delusional ideas, wishful thinking and indication that despite the writing on the wall, Mormons really believe their membership is going to go gang busters someday? Evidence that the church’s tenuous growth stats are kept from the masses? Or that Mormons are just statistically impaired?

A GA who I consider a friend discussed this in a leaders training. He mentioned Stark's projectiosn of someting like 180 Million in 50 years or so. The Church thinks that is way to high and is planning for growth to about 65,000,000 in 50-75 years. That is probably not unrealistic.

He must be counting all the dead baptisms.

[_asbestosman]

Here are my graphs although I did not attempt to make a projection. I justwanted to show change in growth rate:





This data was taken from http://www.gitxsanartist.com/test/churchgrowth.xls (thanks to gitxsanartist) and also from looking for world population as best I could.

The original MA&D thread is:
http://www.mormonapologetics.org/index. ... =21285&hl=

[_Mephitus]

The growth rates of the church have facinated me lately. Its been interesting to see both the new attempts at getting members and the reactions to the vast amounts of resignations. Ill more than admit that the death of the church within the next century isn't exactly a likely thing, but it will definately stagnate to new lows if the current trends continue. As information gets more and more widely distributed, it will be interesting to watch.

[_Bond...James Bond]

The growth rates of the church have facinated me lately. Its been interesting to see both the new attempts at getting members and the reactions to the vast amounts of resignations. Ill more than admit that the death of the church within the next century isn't exactly a likely thing, but it will definately stagnate to new lows if the current trends continue. As information gets more and more widely distributed, it will be interesting to watch.

The full effect of the current resignation trend and exmormon movement won't truly be felt for probably several years (perhaps even a decade or two). The full effect will be felt when the kids of today's teenagers and 20somethings who are dropping off are not recorded as children of record and the old guard membership start to die off. The numbers won't really be realistic for a while (if ever) because of the magic act that is the LDS way of counting members. But people aren't dumb, and they realize that members are dropping.

[_harmony]

The growth rates of the church have facinated me lately. Its been interesting to see both the new attempts at getting members and the reactions to the vast amounts of resignations. Ill more than admit that the death of the church within the next century isn't exactly a likely thing, but it will definately stagnate to new lows if the current trends continue. As information gets more and more widely distributed, it will be interesting to watch.

The full effect of the current resignation trend and exmormon movement won't truly be felt for probably several years (perhaps even a decade or two). The full effect will be felt when the kids of today's teenagers and 20somethings who are dropping off are not recorded as children of record and the old guard membership start to die off. The numbers won't really be realistic for a while (if ever) because of the magic act that is the LDS way of counting members. But people aren't dumb, and they realize that members are dropping.

I'm not sure that resignations will ever play a big part. People usually just fade away, rather than formally resign. What currently plays a large part and will likely continue to do so for quite some time is the number of inactives. If the church published an accurate portrayal of its size, the number would be maybe a fourth of what is actually still on the books.

[_Runtu]

I'm not sure that resignations will ever play a big part. People usually just fade away, rather than formally resign. What currently plays a large part and will likely continue to do so for quite some time is the number of inactives. If the church published an accurate portrayal of its size, the number would be maybe a fourth of what is actually still on the books.

I agree that resignations are not statistically significant yet. But I do expect that convert rates in the developed world are going to continue to slow, so at some point resignations may become significant. To put it bluntly, it's very difficult to baptize people who have access to information about the church. Even if you throw out all the inaccurate information, there's a lot more for missionaries to deal with these days.

The church in Europe is already in decline. I doubt we'll see that in the US and Canada, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Either way, birthrates will ensure that the church will continue in the developed world. And conversions will continue in Latin America and other parts of the underdeveloped world.

[_moksha]

If the church published an accurate portrayal of its size, the number would be maybe a fourth of what is actually still on the books.

The ward clerks keep accurate records each week, so the average number of active members is so very easy to know. I am uncertain why these numbers are not talked about more, unless the thought is that they are less faith-promoting. My guess is that it would be more like one half to one third, rather than a fourth of the published total membership estimate