Adjusting Missions After the Surge When President Thomas S. Monson announced in 2012 the change in the ages for missionary service, the Church expanded the number of missions to accommodate a surge of growth in only a few years from 58,000 to 88,000 missionaries. Five years later, with its missionaries spread throughout more than 400 missions, the Church will be implementing reductions to achieve an overall number of missions that better fits the total number of missionaries and the needs in each region. “We’ve leveled off to around 70,000 missionaries—still way up from the 58,000 we had,” Elder Nielson said. “In the orderly process of accommodating changes in our numbers, we’ll be slowly closing missions because we don’t need as many as we required for the great increase we experienced in 2012-13.”
"We're projecting out probably within four years," apostle Jeffrey R. Holland told a radio interviewer, "the base-line number for the missionary force will be something around 100,000."
“When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.” (Mathew Syed 'Black Box Thinking')
“We’ve leveled off to around 70,000 missionaries—still way up from the 58,000 we had
I highly suspect that the additional 12,000 missionaries are from the increased number of girls going.
If the driving force behind changing the age requirements was to get more boys out on missions, it has failed.
So much for revelation.
"Any over-ritualized religion since the dawn of time can make its priests say yes, we know, it is rotten, and hard luck, but just do as we say, keep at the ritual, stick it out, give us your money and you'll end up with the angels in heaven for evermore."
That's a conservative projection, I'd say. It might have ended up a little more or a little less (we'll never know). Essentially, the number of missionaries would be about what it is now with no age change "revelation". I think we know that.
The 100,000 claim by Holland is a clear case of an apostle speaking out of his caboose.
That's a conservative projection, I'd say. It might have ended up a little more or a little less (we'll never know). Essentially, the number of missionaries would be about what it is now with no age change "revelation". I think we know that.
The 100,000 claim by Holland is a clear case of an apostle speaking out of his caboose.
Arguably, without the age change the proportion of missionaries that were male would have stayed similar across the years. In which case the age reduction has actually decreased the number of males serving missions - same overall total circa 70,000, but bigger proportion of females serving = smaller proportion of males serving.
“When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.” (Mathew Syed 'Black Box Thinking')
That's a conservative projection, I'd say. It might have ended up a little more or a little less (we'll never know). Essentially, the number of missionaries would be about what it is now with no age change "revelation". I think we know that.
The 100,000 claim by Holland is a clear case of an apostle speaking out of his caboose.
Arguably, without the age change the proportion of missionaries that were male would have stayed similar across the years. In which case the age reduction has actually decreased the number of males serving missions - same overall total circa 70,000, but bigger proportion of females serving = smaller proportion of males serving.
True. I do think that with the doubling of the number of sisters, it has been shown that means we have less young men serving missions now, then before the age change. If say, they just changed the age for young women, they might have doubled the number of young women and kept growing the number of young men. With such consideration, we might be closer to 75-80,000 missionaries leveled off by now. Oops, I guess revelation can be tricky.
There is no doubt there are more full-time missionaries serving now than before the age change. But there are not as many more serving as the apostles prophesied there would be. Moreover, the missionaries who are serving are becoming even less effective at winning converts than they were before (and they weren't very effective before), to wit:
In 2010 there were 52,275 full-time missionaries and a church membership of 14,131,467. So, 0.37% of the church membership served as missionaries. In 2010, the church experienced a growth rate of 2.22%.
In 2016 there were 70,946 full-time missionaries and a church membership of 15,882,417. So, 0.45% of the church membership served as missionaries. In 2016, the church experienced a growth rate of 1.59%.
The church missionary force in 2016 was 35.7% larger than it was in 2010 but church membership grew at a rate that was 28% slower than 2010's growth rate. The convert/missionary ratio in 2010 was 5.22. In 2016 it was 3.38.
So the church has more missionaries serving, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of overall membership but is producing fewer converts both in raw numbers and on a per-missionary basis. If the missionaries who are serving had merely matched the convert per missionary ratio of 2010, the church would have added 370,338 new converts in 2016; instead they recorded only 240,131.
Church growth relative to world population growth was also the lowest it has ever been, at just a tick above 0.5%. All other things being equal, one would expect the church to grow at the same rate as the world's population. But with over 70,000 missionaries preaching the gospel message, the church grew at a rate barely above baseline. And remember, these are all the church's own numbers, which we have reason to believe are the rosiest possible spin on things. The "growth" reflects only who was dunked and counts everyone who was baptized even those who never set foot in a meetinghouse afterward.
"The Church is authoritarian, tribal, provincial, and founded on a loosely biblical racist frontier sex cult."--Juggler Vain "The lds church is the Amway of religions. Even with all the soap they sell, they still manage to come away smelling dirty."--Some Schmo
It's wonderful news to know that the missionary effort of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is in decline.
Elder Holland didn't know what he was talking about. He was just talking numbers and trying to build faith in getting his members to actually think they'd have 100,000 missionaries in the coming years. Just another false prophecy. Another failed Mormon prediction.
Rest assured that missionary numbers will continue to dwindle and that convert baptisms will become a rarity. The cult membership will shrink and decrease in size as the Internet continues to destroy the church.
No unhallowed hand can stop Google-God! No weapon forged by the Mormon cult will prosper against the light and truth of Google.
Equality wrote: If the missionaries who are serving had merely matched the convert per missionary ratio of 2010, the church would have added 370,338 new converts in 2016; instead they recorded only 240,131.
If only if.
The price to track down and baptize new converts has gotten a lot more expensive and the church is going to have to pony up premium rates to increase their flock size. The day of cheap baptisms is over. The church is going to have to expend serious amounts of cash in order to trick more people into joining the cult organization. Most people don't mind joining a new church but the thought of joining a cult is a no brainer.
The cat is out of the bag (thanks to Google-god) and nobody in their right mind wants to join a cult. I am so glad to be out of the cult! They will never get another dime out of me and I can masturbate all I want without feeling guilty. What a deal!
There are some missionaries that live a few doors down from me. I saw them getting into their car the other night and they looked really depressed. I hope they find a way to cheer up. Maybe they could go dancing or hiking. It really is sad to see them so depressed and wearing the clothes of a CEO.
Oh for shame, how the mortals put the blame on us gods, for they say evils come from us, but it is they, rather, who by their own recklessness win sorrow beyond what is given... Zeus (1178 BC)
