Visual perspective on the $124 billion

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_Dr Moore
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Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _Dr Moore »

Much has been said in public forums about the $124 billion in the church's Ensign Peak funds. Or if you prefer, the "$100 billion" seems often preferred as a triggering amount, having passed above the triple digit billions par.

I won't re-post any of the direct "size" comparisons, which have been extensively covered by news media already, assessing Ensign Peak funds against the size of large charity funds, sovereign wealth funds, and other investment funds.

Instead, I put together some visual charts which I hope will assist in framing discussions that inevitably seem to fall to qualitative assessments of careful stewardship of sacred funds versus how much money does Jesus need?

For this post, I will avoid opinions and commentary, and instead will focus only on a brief explanation of the figures, the facts and analysis.

See * at the bottom for source comments.

Image
Net cash position of the LDS church, compared with the most richly capitalized companies (as defined as total cash - total debt).

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Operating expenses for the LDS church, compared with the largest US corporate spenders, as measured by 2019 operating expenses.

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Net cash expressed in terms of years of expenses on hand; again, net cash is total cash - total debt.

Holding 3 to 5 years of expenses in net cash sufficiently allows for large-scale M&A (mergers and acquisitions) potential or an expression of extreme conservatism in cyclical industries. It is very rare for non-financial firms to carry more than 5 years in net cash, primarily because return performance (eg, return on net assets, return on equity) are unjustifiably muted, negatively impacting returns to shareholders beyond reasonable risk management.

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Time plot for the LDS Church showing years of expenses held in net cash. This analysis required two instances of extrapolation, which I will explain now. First, between 2013 and 2019, the whistle blower complaint does not offer specific capital assets for Ensign Peak. 2012 is provided, at $47 billion. 2019 is also provided, at $124 billion. The compound growth rate in those 6 years is therefore 14.9%, so my analysis assumes a smooth 14.9% compound return between 2013 and 2019, muting any volatility in actual fund assets during those years. Second, for annual expense estimates beginning with 2019's whistle blower complaint, estimated at $5.5 billion ($5-6 billion), I worked backward at an annualized expense growth rate of 1.3%. It is likely that in prior years, church expenses grew faster than this, matching membership growth at higher rates. However, to be conservative in the analysis and conclusions, the extrapolation in my model stays at 1.3% expense growth going back to 1991, and very likely over-states expenses in previous years, leading to an under-estimation of the number of years of expenses on hand in cash reserves. This yields a more generous conclusion for the church in terms of when milestones such as 3-years, 5-years and 10-years of cash on hand were attained.

Also shown on this chard are the prophetic eras, for convenience in noting under whose stewardship the church attained various milestones in long-term expense reserves. 3-years and 5-years of expense reserves were achieved under Gordon B. Hinckley's watch. Ensign Peak was formed, I believe, in 1997, at which time the church had approximately 3 years of expenses in cash reserves. Under Thomas S. Monson, the church achieved 10 years of expense reserves in about 2013, and 15 years of expense reserves in about 2016. It is unclear whether Thomas S. Monson or Russell M. Nelson presided over the church achieving 20 years of expense reserves, in about the year 2018.

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Comparisons with large university endowments have been made, noting the enormous Harvard and Yale endowments at $38 billion and $26 billion each, dwarfed by the LDS Church at $124 billion. These comparisons are not apples-apples as they ignore the functional role of university endowments. In 2019, Harvard drew 5% of its endowment down, $1.8 billion in total, to cover 35% of its operating budget. Yale, similarly, funded 34% of its operating budget by drawing $1.4 billion from its endowment funds. Harvard and Yale each hold approximately 6.5-7.0 years of university expenses in their endowments today, yet without these funds both schools would fall well short of funding annual operating expenses. By comparison, the LDS Church funds 0% of its operating budget from its endowment-equivalent (Ensign Peak). According the whistle blower complaint, the LDS Church contributes between 10 to 15% of its income every year into its endowment, saving "a portion" of what it receives in donations. An analogically equivalent with university endowments, such as Harvard or Yale, would be a university requiring no funds drawn from its endowment, and contributing excess tuition and fees into its endowment every year.

* Sources:

Corporate data from Bloomberg, as of the most recently reported quarter on 2/16/2020. Source data drawn for all US-domiciled, publicly listed, non-financial institutions with greater than $250 million in annual operating expenses for the trailing 12 month period

LDS data from the Nielson's whisleblower document, "Letter to an IRS Director", and various public disclosures

Harvard data: https://finance.harvard.edu/files/fad/f ... report.pdf

Yale data: https://provost.yale.edu/budget
_Philo Sofee
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _Philo Sofee »

HOLY WOW!!! Most interesting charts!!!
Dr CamNC4Me
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_I have a question
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _I have a question »

I hope these charts (particularly the first one, receive widespread global media distribution. Those poor people in Africa who Nelson told to pay tithing because it would end their poverty might be interested in them, particularly the first one. All Church members should see that graph, to see the extent of the wealth the Church has been hoarding and hiding.
“When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.” (Mathew Syed 'Black Box Thinking')
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _I have a question »

It was a secret so tightly guarded by the Mormon church that only an elite circle knew about it.
But that all changed when a whistle blower alerted the US government to a US$100 billion fund which had been quietly amassed by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS).
The church had kept its fund off radar out of fear its worldwide members would stop the process of tithing, and money destined for the church's headquarters in Utah would dry up.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/the-secr ... d9ddf96ba9

Boiled down, this^ is a good summation of the facts.

No one employed at Ensign, located in a nondescript building with no signage, had publicly spoken about their job or the existence of their firm before.
Clandestine money hoarding. This needs forensic investigation by someone other than the Church and its auditors.

Note: It's worth keeping in mind that $124 billion is just the wealth stashed in Ensign Peak. It doesn't include the other assets of the Church in Land, Farming, For-Profit Business entities. It doesn't include those investment vehicles that we don't currently know about.
“When we are confronted with evidence that challenges our deeply held beliefs we are more likely to reframe the evidence than we are to alter our beliefs. We simply invent new reasons, new justifications, new explanations. Sometimes we ignore the evidence altogether.” (Mathew Syed 'Black Box Thinking')
_DrW
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _DrW »

Information provided by Dr. Moore was well thought out, well executed, and provides great perspective. Dr. Moore selected impactful metrics for his comparisons. None of the ratios graphed are anything that the Church leadership should be proud of.

Dr. Moores financial indicator selection, coupled with IHAQ's research and comments, shows what an embarrassment this should be to the Church since there is no conceivable reason, aside from greed and/or mismanagement, to end up with this much liquidity. The fact that it was a closely held secret for so long only makes things that much worse.
David Hume: "---Mistakes in philosophy are merely ridiculous, those in religion are dangerous."

DrW: "Mistakes in science are learning opportunities and are eventually corrected."
_Fence Sitter
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _Fence Sitter »

And yet the frothing faithful at MAD are almost overcome by joy at the idea that the church is sitting on $100B.

Anyone who dares suggest that the church could actually do so good with even part of this money is obviously an anti Mormon critic who does not pay tithing, lacks a testimony and is questioning God's anointed use of sacred funds.

There is no sum the church could hold that would be questioned by these fanatics. If sitting on a $100B does not convince a member that the church is worshiping mammon, nothing will.
"Any over-ritualized religion since the dawn of time can make its priests say yes, we know, it is rotten, and hard luck, but just do as we say, keep at the ritual, stick it out, give us your money and you'll end up with the angels in heaven for evermore."
_Gadianton
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _Gadianton »

That's some revealing work, Dr Moore. Staggering. That it guarded this with all it had from the members truly says what kind of institution it is. It's easy to understand from a management perspective -- but that's making the most most brutal and materialistic assumptions of the cut-throat profiteers.

It's going to be much harder to keep my mouth shut around family and friends in the future than it had been in the past after this.
Lou Midgley 08/20/2020: "...meat wad," and "cockroach" are pithy descriptions of human beings used by gemli? They were not fashioned by Professor Peterson.

LM 11/23/2018: one can explain away the soul of human beings...as...a Meat Unit, to use Professor Peterson's clever derogatory description of gemli's ideology.
_Philo Sofee
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _Philo Sofee »

That's $7,750/member, assuming a valid 16,000,000. See? When ya looksie at the numbers from a faithful perspective, there is nothing sinister here.......time to move along....
Dr CamNC4Me
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_Everybody Wang Chung
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _Everybody Wang Chung »

"I want to say to you, we may not be able to reach it right away, but we expect to see the day when we will not have to ask you for one dollar of donation for any purpose, except that which you volunteer to give of your own accord, because we will have tithes sufficient in the storehouse of the Lord to pay everything that is needful for the advancement of the kingdom of God. I want to live to see that day, if the Lord will spare my life. It does not make any difference, though, so far as that is concerned, whether I live or not. That is the true policy, the true purpose of the Lord in the management of the affairs of His Church.


Joseph F. Smith, April 1907 General Conference
"I'm on paid sabbatical from BYU in exchange for my promise to use this time to finish two books."

Daniel C. Peterson, 2014
_Dr Moore
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Re: Visual perspective on the $124 billion

Post by _Dr Moore »

For roughly 15 years, we have had 3 separate church presidents under whose leadership the church held more than sufficient reserves to deal with any conceivable economic surprise or unexpected headwind to tithing and donations.

Think about that. Almost an entire generation has passed since church reserves matched the most conservative organizations on the planet in terms of liquidity-to-expenses, and during that time it has done not one good thing with that money.

People say, yeah but the church is not like a business. True. As a high-demand religious system, the church is more like a government with taxation rights, but even better than that because members tend to seek religious comfort in bad times. The members might make less money in a downturn, but will tend to be more faithful on the margins. The church is not in jeopardy of losing its tithing income any time soon.

Unless it is fundamentally failing in its mission.

Which is an interesting notion. As it relates to money, what upsets stakeholders is that, with the money, the church is failing in its mission. Is it fear? The church worries it will mis-use funds and fail in its mission, and in so doing, fails in its mission?

An ultra wealthy church, professing Jesus Christ at its head, is utterly failing if that money is not dutifully utilized to serve the works of Jesus. How is this ultra wealthy church doing with that?

  • In 1997, when Ensign Peak was founded, funds on hand totaled about 3 years of fully-loaded church operating expenses. A decision could have been made to allocate 3-5% of Ensign Peak per year to relieve human suffering, and that would have been $360-600 million per year. Instead, the decision was made to spend $0 from Ensign Peak and continue hoarding the money in secrecy.
  • In 2003, funds on hand totaled about 5 years of fully-loaded church operating expenses. A decision could have been made to allocate 3-5% of Ensign Peak per year to relieve human suffering, and that would have been $660 million - $1.1 billion per year. Instead, the decision was made to spend $0 from Ensign Peak and continue hoarding the money in secrecy.
  • In 2013, when the Gospel Topics essays were introduced, funds on hand totaled about 10 years of fully-loaded church operating expenses. A decision could have been made to allocate 3-5% of Ensign Peak per year to relieve human suffering, and that would have been $1.6-2.7 billion per year. Instead, the decision was made to spend $0 from Ensign Peak and continue hoarding the money in secrecy.
  • In 2018, when Russell M. Nelson ascended to president, he introduced a tirade of policy changes while also knowing that the church held enough cash to fund its entire budget through the year 2038, fully 20 years of fully-loaded church operating expenses. A decision could have been made to allocate 3-5% of Ensign Peak per year to relieve human suffering, and that would have been $3.2 to $5.4 billion per year. Instead, the decision was made to spend $0 from Ensign Peak and continue hoarding the money in secrecy.

* Source: same as in the OP, 3-5% applied to reported total Ensign Peak holdings.

Through all of these past 15 years, as comforting fiscal milestones compounded, not once - not one time - did the self-proclaimed prophet of Jesus Christ feel impressed by moral imperative or the scriptural voice of Christ to deploy a single dollar of excess reserve funds to do the works of Jesus in the world. Not one dollar in 15 years. No hungry fed. No naked clothed. No sick healed. No lame made to walk.

Meanwhile, other organizations have gradually, one person at a time, one million dollars at a time, managed to accomplish incredible outcomes by way of solving problems afflicting under privileged tracts of society. And the smallest organizations have all accomplished infinitely MORE than the LDS church has accomplished with its excess-ive savings accounts.

All summed, during just the 15 years since 2003, when an ultra conservative 5 years of all-in budget expenses had been saved, the church has, by opting to hoard rather than to deploy excess capital to relieve human suffering, committed a sin of omission to the amount of $27 to $46 billion against Jesus Christ and the works his church should be doing in the world.

It is an abject failure of unbelievable proportions. Committed in the utmost secrecy.

Whether you believe in Jesus or not, can there be any doubt that Jesus -- and the values He represents to literal believers and secular non-believers alike -- would be totally and completely pissed about such a thing done in his name?

I realize that everyone is entitled to their opinion, and some simply chalk it up to something like ultra-ultra conservatism, or suggest that we shouldn't care because it's a church.

One of the following must be true. 1. Leaders have not been listening to Jesus, or 2. Jesus doesn't actually lead the church. I refuse to consider the third option, 3. Jesus actually doesn't care about relieving human suffering, he just wants that money.

My opinion continues to be that the brethren are not evil men, but that they're simply afraid of what it means to really put that much money to work. I think they were afraid of it in 1997, when it would have meant deploying hundreds of millions to humanitarian work. And they've become even more afraid of it every year since as the money ballooned and the correlated complexity also ballooned. It's a monumental organizational task, putting charitable money to work efficiently. It takes armies of committed people, diligent research and candid evaluation of results. But armies of people is something the church has always had at its disposal. There is no good excuse. Failure to make it happen is a damning evidence against the very banner the leaders profess to hold.

As an aside, there is much that the good folks at Ensign Peak should be proud of, and the church should have been proud, from day one, to hold that organization up as a beacon of good investment management process. In its desire to be secretive, it also missed an incredible opportunity to showcase one of the most impressive investment teams in the world, as measured by fund expenses versus returns. And to that point, shame on Clarke for suggesting that the secrecy was to protect members from mimicking the fund's portfolio. Every large portfolio in the world is subject to SEC reporting rules, and those reports and disclosures are all shrouded in "big boy" language. Try again, this time with a little more respect and faith in the people. Or does Clarke also wish to prevent the church from publicly teaching its various social doctrines in order to prevent well-meaning parents from mis-applying those doctrines and harming their kids?
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