Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

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simon southerton
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Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by simon southerton »

Mormon social media is in a feeding frenzy at the moment, with remarkable claims that evidence of horses has finally been found in Mexico. Jasmine, at the TikTok SpripturePlus site, has been gloating about the supposed evidence. This one should come with a cringe warning.
https://www.tiktok.com/@scriptureplus/v ... aC4iqEh6gM

The Book of Mormon says horses were present in the Americas between 2000 BC and 400 AD, however, scientific research has failed to find any evidence of horses during this period. This century-long problem has inspired Mormon apologists to dream up the most desperate apologetics we have seen. That's why you see tapirs, a feeble substitute horse, all over exmormon pages.

The discovery of horse bones from the Book of Mormon period would be paradigm busting research if true. There is a broad scientific consensus view that most large herbivores that greeted the First Americans were eaten into extinction soon after the ice age ended roughly 13,000 years ago. It would be SENSATIONAL news if horses survived alongside highly skilled hunters for over 10,000 years.

The scientific research some Mormons are excited about can be accessed at this link.
https://meridian.allenpress.com/.../POST-PLEISTOCENE... (Wade Miller et al. (2022) 74 (1): Article 5 Post-Pleistocene horses (Equus) from Mexico. The Texas Journal of Science

The first red flag for me is that the lead author of the research, Wade Miller, is a Mormon apologist. He already knows, due to his belief in the Book of Mormon, that horses were there. Miller is a retired BYU geology professor and has recently spoken at Mormon apologetic conferences. This is a concern because Miller has a significant conflict of interest. I wonder how many of his co-authors are also LDS?

The next issue that troubles me is that the paper is published in a very obscure journal. If you want to break a paradigm you need to publish in major journals that all leading scientists read. In this particular case, why wasn’t the research published in a respected archaeological or anthropological journal? The paper may have previously been submitted to these types of journals but rejected for reasons that may be related to issues I discuss below.

Another problem I had with the paper was the inference by the authors that there was “growing information” which implies horses may have survived long after the Late Pleistocene extinction event in Mexico. To back up this claim they cite two papers from the 1800s, one from 1967 and four papers in 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2008 by M. Pichardo. None of these papers provide solid evidence of New World horses surviving into the holocene.

The major problem I have with the paper is that the radiocarbon dates were NOT from collagen (protein) purified from the horse bones (the gold standard). The dates were from charcoal or wood next to the bones. If you are not able to isolate collagen, you are at the mercy of the soil environment which can contaminate the bones AND the adjacent charcoal or wood with much younger carbon. A major source of younger contaminating carbon in soils is rainwater, which contains dissolved carbon dioxide. This very dilute carbonic acid percolates down the soil profile. Evaporation at the soil surface eventually causes the carbonic acid to precipitate out as calcium carbonate, a solid material found in many soils and caves.

From my reading of the paper it is clear that the soils where Miller et al. located the horse bones were rich in carbonates. These are direct quotes from the paper.
The overall geology of the region was presented by Cortés & Flores-Díaz (2012) who indicated that carbonate layers extend to a depth of about 7 m. The exposed stratigraphic layers (Fig. 3) represent predominantly spring and paludal deposits along with some shallow lacustrine deposition. While the exposed strata from which fossil specimens were collected and presented here show some variation, the major components consist of various forms of tufa (precipitated calcium carbonate), thus of the roughly 5 m of exposed stratigraphic units, all have a high carbonate signature.
Using currently available methods it would be almost impossible to date these Mexican horse bones accurately. The bones, and the charcoal and wood adjacent to the bones, would almost certainly be contaminated with much younger carbonates. The authors are aware of the problem of drawing conclusions from the charcoal and wood dates. They make this surprising admission in the paper, which almost sounds like a response to a reviewer.
We completely agree with statements that an assessed charcoal sample recovered adjacent to a skeletal element does not necessarily create a precise age for that vertebrate specimen. However, some radiocarbon dated charcoal samples were recovered from within millimeters of Equus bones.
However, if the soil is contaminated with carbonates, it doesn’t matter how close you get to the bones. Even the bones are contaminated! Everything is contaminated with carbonates and the dates would be meaningless. I suspect all experienced scientists would be very cautious about the radiocarbon dates reported in the paper, apart from the dates obtained from collagen extracted from post-Columbus horses.

Another reason the dates of the charcoal and wood are less reliable is that some soils may have been disturbed in the past by a flood or earthquake. This can result in older bones being deposited in a new location alongside much younger organic material like charcoal and wood.
For these reasons, scientists will be very cautious about accepting indirect dates from surrounding organic matter. The best evidence is radiocarbon dates from collagen protein purified from bones. This data is lacking in the paper.

Scientists working on Kennewick Man also encountered carbonates, and yet again, Mormons have got the science wrong. This is discussed in detail in a recent paper I co-authored with Thomas Murphy and Angelo Baca. https://www.academia.edu/88679212/Scien ... 8RMFytQGZA

Kennewick Man was a paleolithic hunter whose almost fully intact skeleton was recovered from the banks of the Columbia River in Kennewick Washington. Because scientists were able to isolate high quality collagen from several of Kennewick Man’s bones, they were able to determine that he was, without a doubt, around 9,000 years old. However, some of Kennewick Man’s bones were contaminated by carbonates. In order to learn when the carbonates formed they measured radiocarbon dates for several bones. Not surprisingly, the dates were much younger, roughly 2,500 years ago. To this day some Mormon apologists still claim the carbonate dates on Kennewick Man reflect his true age, even after the scientists corrected their false claims.

It's worth noting that the horse species Miller et al. were studying are not the same species as the horses the Spanish brought. They are New World species. This means that Indigenous people would have needed to domesticate them. There is no evidence of pre-Columbian use of horses among indigenous populations anywhere in the Americas.

A FAR more important piece of evidence that Mormons are still lacking is ANY evidence people from the Middle East lived ANYWHERE in the Americas prior to Columbus. Scientists have been researching the DNA of Indigenous Americans for over 40 years. The latest genomic research has revealed no evidence of Book of Mormon people anywhere. Jennifer Raff, professor of Anthropology at the University of Kansas, recently wrote about the human colonization of the Americas in Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... UG6wxvx4yQ

This is what she said:
All genomic studies rule out the possibility that the First Peoples mixed with Europeans or Africans or any other populations before 1492
Why get excited about horses when there are no Nephites to ride them?

A growing number of Mormon apologists (Terryl Givens, Richard Bushman and Patrick Mason) have admitted the Book of Mormon looks in many ways to be "inspired" by 19th century ideas floating around in Joseph Smith's community. They are getting closer to the truth all the time.
Philo Sofee
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by Philo Sofee »

Excellent post! Please come on my show... I am doing live interviews now, and would really enjoy sharing with my audience in your own words your incredibly important understanding that balances out the apologetics.
Father Francis
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by Father Francis »

Being a nurse/science nerd I love reading a good journal paper, so I read it. I don't pretend to be an expert on anything, but I have enough of a grasp of science that if I don't understand something outside my field I know where to look for information that gives me a basic understanding.

Spoiler alert:

The journal article doesn't say what she thinks it does. She also says that horses aren't really mentioned all that much in the Book of Mormon... What animal does she think pulled all those chariots we haven't found remnants of? Tapirs?
Philo Sofee
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by Philo Sofee »

Father Francis wrote:
Tue Oct 25, 2022 4:33 am
The journal article doesn't say what she thinks it does. She also says that horses aren't really mentioned all that much in the Book of Mormon... What animal does she think pulled all those chariots we haven't found remnants of? Tapirs?
:lol:
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Dr. Sunstoned
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by Dr. Sunstoned »

Thanks for this review, Dr. Southerton. It helps clear up a lot of misinformation that is floating around many of the Mormon apologetic sites.
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tapirrider
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by tapirrider »

Thank you Simon. I disregarded Wade Miller long ago when I realized how he promotes speculative trash. A good example can be seen in his book Science and the Book of Mormon: Cureloms, Cumoms, Horses and More. On page 80 he gives a date of 8,240 and provides Mead and Meltzer, 1984 for the source. Here is what happens when that source is checked.

The site was Whitewater Draw, Arizona, the source was North American Late Quaternary extinctions and the radiocarbon record, 1984, page 446, which identifies it as clearly an unreliable sample.

That same unreliable sample was further identified later by the same researchers Mead and Meltzer, in Dating Late Pleistocene Extinctions: Theoretical Issues, Analytical Bias, and Substantive Results, 1985, on page 160.

Wade Miller took a date from an unreliable sample, then published it in his boook to claim that it was evidence of horses existing past the extinction when in fact the researchers explained why that sample was not used for their conclusions.

When I realized what Miller was up to then, I could not consider anything he came up with after that as having any credibility. So thank you again Simon for reinforcing what I had previously found about Miller.
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by Moksha »

Once again, if you are trying to swim upstream when the current is too strong against you, is it really wrong to climb out of the water and walk along the bank then simply claim you swam all the way? I mean, they have a faith to promote that is not backed by the evidence. In that case, you remember your alteration magic class back at Brigham Young and you cast the Maximus Pretendium spell. It might not fool the experts but it will soothe the rubes.
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master_dc
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by master_dc »

That TikToker is married to Neal Rappleye and she too works for Book of Mormon Central... so she has a lot riding on these hopes and dreams of proving the Book of Mormon is a true history.
dastardly stem
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by dastardly stem »

This horse thing is itself pretty good evidence of Mormon apologetic failure. Even if horses were found to be somewhere in the Americas near the proposed time, that doesn't give evidence the Book of Mormon is true. It is simply an attempt to rebut early criticisms of the book's claims. As Simon points out, we don't even have evidence for the people described. Horses are just an element of a make believe story, at this point. I sit back and watch apologists carry on about horses and possible connections with remains and chuckle a bit. Then they boast that critics were wrong or could have been and that just makes me wonder what they think they are doing. I appreciate this thread because it puts it back to rest. Getting all boastful over an inconsequential point is just silly. But to get all boastful only to prove your ignorance on the matter is just sad.
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Markk
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Re: Mexican horse manure - a new low for Mormon apologetics

Post by Markk »

simon southerton wrote:
Mon Oct 24, 2022 10:28 pm
Mormon social media is in a feeding frenzy at the moment, with remarkable claims that evidence of horses has finally been found in Mexico. Jasmine, at the TikTok SpripturePlus site, has been gloating about the supposed evidence. This one should come with a cringe warning.
https://www.tiktok.com/@scriptureplus/v ... aC4iqEh6gM

[SNIP!]

A growing number of Mormon apologists (Terryl Givens, Richard Bushman and Patrick Mason) have admitted the Book of Mormon looks in many ways to be "inspired" by 19th century ideas floating around in Joseph Smith's community. They are getting closer to the truth all the time.
The author of the paper, Miller is now deceased, sent me this reply to a few questions I had on the article. Note that Miller's first attempt was kicked back and Jim re-wrote expecting kick back. To his credit he stated clearly it is NOT proof.
Good morning Markk, (edit name)

First of all, you can call me 'Jim' - I am retired and just doing my research - no longer as a university professor, but thanks.

And - thanks for the below.

So - you ready for a longggg answer??

As with any publication, the conclusions really only put out there information that is an opinion, more-or-less a target. A target for either the same researcher in the near future, or a target for other researchers. Some researchers like to profess that their conclusions are the final say ("I've done it - the true answer"), while others might indicate that the conclusions are the next step in a possibly lone line of hypothesis testing. We all want to be correct but more importantly, we want to be open in the discussion - or at least that is my approach.

My colleague Wade Miller (now deceased), senior author, wanted my help in working up the data that he and his Mexican colleagues had gathered from one locality. I gave him some suggestions as to how to approach the radiocarbon dating. I have not been to the fossil locality to 'see for myself' but had lots of questions. He created a manuscript that was not accepted for publication and having later read it, I understand why. So, he asked me to help write a new potential article ... my way.... but he had terminal cancer, was having issues, and his colleagues in Mexico could not work in English. So those are the 'rules of the game' presented to me for that project. Normally I would have just walked away but Wade was a very good colleague of mine.

The article we ended up publishing is definitely NOT proof of horses lasting through the terminal Ice Age extinction to the present or near present. It took me a fairly long time to get answers to my questions to Wade.

Yes - the biggest issue/problem with the data set is that we could not get radiocarbon dates from the younger horse fossils. But there is a logical and very plausible reason for this - just too much leaching of water through the bones and removing the collagen that is used for dating. This is actually a common issue with young, marsh deposits. But we do not 'win' by default. One argument from the many reviewers we had was that we likely had mixing of Ice Age horse up into the more recent time. One thing that kept impressing me was that why would horses be mixed from lower levels up but this did not happen with the other fossils of extinct mammoths, camels, carnivores etc. It did not make sense. And the obvious goat bones near the surface are not really mixed down into lower levels.

Take a close look at the animals that Wade and colleagues recovered and the radiocarbon dates. That one profile of the sedimentary layers. Although there is some mixing within each geological unit maybe, there does not seem to be mixing from the Ice Age up into the youngest, most recent levels.

My professional view is that there are many mammals (mega-mammals - mammoth, camel etc.) that became extinct by about 13,000-11,000 years ago. Some died out earlier but most, the last evidence was about that time. So, why the horses in this one remote region of northeastern Mexico. .... Hence my personal issues with the dataset and me being an author on the article. So - I wrote the article I hope in a way that basically states: 1) Here are the data as best as can be recovered and presented. 2) Here are all the details about the animals recovered and the radiocarbon dates presented stratigraphically. Originally Wade had the youngest dates at the top and the oldest at the bottom. This sort of worked ... but not. I obtained all the data and presented the dates on the profile based on what depth they were recovered - not by their age. This is more honest and least biased. 3) I hope that I have created the discussion and conclusions in a way that the reader will see that there are options to the conclusions. And that all options are testable - but it will take other localities to do this.

If horses were really lasting in the region the way this dataset implies, then there should be, must be, other localities with similar results. Very few localities in that region have been studied with the approach to do a detailed analysis. Many paleontologists and archaeologists approach a site with the idea to 'prove' some idea/concept that they may have. I ultimately do not really care what the result is - let's just see what the preserved data 'tells' us. But it often requires the researcher to be truly open and to do lots of different analyses. Approach the issue/problem/project from multiple views, using multiple analyses. I tried this as much as I could with Wade's data - again, my biggest issue was me not having been to the locality and seeing for myself. There are a number of Mexican paleontologists that apparently are at odds with some of the co-authors on this article. [i.e., I am swimming upstream] I do not know any of them other than Wade. One problem can be that other researchers may go to place purely to disprove what is being stated in our publication. That approach does not help really. We need researchers with open minds. Time will tell about what other publications say about our publication. I am fully ready to be targeted in a negative way. So be it, but so far, no issues.

I do a fair amount of work in Sonora, Mexico. Those publications are available to you if you want them. Just ask and I will send you pdfs. In no case have I found horses (or any now-extinct critter) lasting into the Holocene - the most recent 10,000 years. I have published about the Ice Age faunas from all over western USA - the same results about the extinct critters. I am currently working on plants and animals from 4 caves here in the Black Hills (SD) and 8 caves in the east-central Great Basin (Snake Range, NV). So far, same results........but I am having fun doing all of this. Oh, and one dry cave in the Trans-Pecos Texas region. I am not actively doing field work in Sonora anymore, but we are writing up lots about what we recovered from there.

I do not know where you live but if you ever make it out to the Black Hills, Hot Springs, SD (corner of SD, WY, and NE) come visit the Mammoth Site - a sinkhole with over 50 mammoths so far recovered from it, and we have a museum about other critters and cave faunas. If you do make it out here this summer or whenever, let me know and I can give you a tour of the site and show you our lab.

Let me know if you have other questions. All this is fun.
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