Republicans in Disarray

[honorentheos]

It's highly unlikely McCarthy would or could turn to Democrats for support to overcome the impasse. Between the in-party criticism and in-district exposure to a challenger, plus becoming the target of rightwing media, I'd say there is very, very little chance of something like this happening.

I think it's more likely he could decide to call the bluff of Gaetz, Boebert, and whatever other holdouts are left after his latest round of concessions by proposing a vote to allow the person with a plurality of votes to win. Republicans would start doing the math and finding the odds of it resulting in a Jefferies win uncomfortable. At which point I think the door could open to moderate Republicans looking for a coalition among Democrats with whom they could find a consensus candidate for Speaker and backdoor them in. But I don't think that's likely, either.

[Vēritās]

At this point in his moment of humiliation and desperation, do you really think he'd turn down negotiations with Dems if it means getting what he wants?

I mean it really can't get any worse for him right now. The alienation is already happening and if he gives any more concessions to those 20 he could lose the votes he already has.

[Manetho]

At this point in his moment of humiliation and desperation, do you really think he'd turn down negotiations with Dems if it means getting what he wants?

I mean it really can't get any worse for him right now. The alienation is already happening and if he gives any more concessions to those 20 he could lose the votes he already has.

Democrats have no reason to accept any of the promises he might make. Any rules he might pass that are favorable to Democrats would have to be passed after he becomes speaker, at which point he wouldn't need Democrats for anything. Remember, McCarthy condemned the January 6 attack and then turned around and went to Mar-A-Lago to kiss the godfather's ring. Nobody can trust him.

And if he did somehow make a deal with the Democrats, most of the Republican votes he has now would disappear. Those folks would see it as a betrayal to make a deal with the Democrats, even under these extreme circumstances. The "reasonable Republican" is virtually an extinct species.

[Res Ipsa]

Welcome to Day 5 of Republicans in Disarray -- Special Treason Weasel Day

Yes, it's the second anniversary of Treasons Weasel Day. Will the House observe a moment of silence to remember those who died? To remember an armed attack on the Congress, many of whom are on the floor of the Chamber today? Or would the Treason Weasels that still hold seats in the House prefer that we just forget that they conspired to overturn the results of a free and fair election?
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The Chaplain still seems to think God will fix this. Gotta admire her optimism.

The customary quorum call has begun.
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The floor looks emptier than it has. For the record, a quorum is one-half of the total number of House members (218)
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275 members present. That's pretty low. I suspect there are lots of off-floor meetings going on.

One reporter summarized the rumor mill this way:

So to recap: there is a deal, but also there is no deal, but also there are commitments in writing expected to bring between 6-10 or 10-12 anti-McCarthy votes over to McCarthy, but also nobody is going to change their votes, and there will be progress today but also no progress.

In the meantime, there are rumblings among McCarthy supporters that he has promised too much to the Anti-McCarthy factor.

Nominations:

(1) McCarthy, nominated by Mike Garcia (CA)

This isn't about McCarthy -- he's a good, god-fearing man. It is about Americans. Nation is a wobbling top, about to fall. [Usual laundry list] Thanks Capitol Police and gets a standing ovation. [Good on him.] Little Round Top metaphor -- we must hold the line. To Democrats, "we are on the verge of a very important victory." [Really, taking four days to decide something usually decided on one vote is an "important victory?"]

(2) Jeffries, nominated by Jim Clyburn (SC)

Thanks the Clerk for maintaining the dignity of the proceeding. [She had to remind Garcia to address remarks to the chair] Appeals to deToqueville: "America is great because she is good." If we cease to be good, we will cease being great.

(3) Jim Jordan, nominated by Matt Gaetz

McCarthy hasn't earned the position. He hasn't, because you earn the position by getting the votes. He hasn't and he will never will. McCarthy isn't pure in intent [discusses his view of specific parts of settlement negotiations]. McCarthy's intent is entire driven by self-interest. The do not trust McCarthy with the power of the speakership

(4) Hern (my apologies for earlier misspelling his name), nominated by Boebert (CO)

Apparently they've given up on nominating the young, black superstar.

Vote!

[Moksha]

At this point in his moment of humiliation and desperation, do you really think he'd turn down negotiations with Dems if it means getting what he wants?

I mean it really can't get any worse for him right now. The alienation is already happening and if he gives any more concessions to those 20 he could lose the votes he already has.

Republicans could field much worse speakers than McCarthy. However, wouldn't this be akin to the fox agreeing to ferry the scorpion across the river?

[Res Ipsa]

Significant changes in Round 12.

For the first time, McCarthy received more votes than Jeffries. (It's so sad when a talking point evaporates.) Eleven dissenters flipped to McCarthy. Because of absences, McCarthy only needs 217 votes to win. That shrinks the pool of Anti-McCarthy votes to seven. If he can peel away three, he becomes speaker.

The remaining R holdouts are: Biggs (AZ), Boebert (CO), Crane (AZ), Gaetz (Florida), Good (VA), Harris (MD), and Rosendale (MT). Sparks returned to McCarthy from her string of "present" votes. The most significant flips were probably Gosar and Perry.

Thirteenth Round --- Fight!

Nominations:

(1) McCarthy, nominated by James Comer (KY)

(2) Jeffries


Rumor mill says McCarthy folded on using the debt ceiling vote to force budget concessions.

No other nominations. This may be the end. (Hope springs eternal)
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Biggs votes Jordan
Boebert votes Jordan
Crane votes Jordan
Gaetz votes Jordan

McCarthy needs the other three.

Good votes Jordan

That's enough to defeat McCarthy unless the total votes cast changes

Harris votes McCarthy!!
Rosendale votes Jordan

Perry skipped his turn even though he was in the chamber. Not sure if that means anything.

[honorentheos]

Boebert and Gaetz seem dug in. Biggs also seems unlikely to go for McCarthy. My read of Good is he likes the press attention and would be unlikely to jump over as well. Crane is an unknown to me along with Harris and Rosendale. I would have guessed Gosar wouldn't have flipped, though, so who knows.

[Res Ipsa]

Boebert and Gaetz seem dug in. Biggs also seems unlikely to go for McCarthy. My read of Good is he likes the press attention and would be unlikely to jump over as well. Crane is an unknown to me along with Harris and Rosendale. I would have guessed Gosar wouldn't have flipped, though, so who knows.

I was looking for three for McCarthy, which gives him the Speakership, with four protest votes for Jordan. Doesn't look like that's happening this round.

[honorentheos]

Boebert and Gaetz seem dug in. Biggs also seems unlikely to go for McCarthy. My read of Good is he likes the press attention and would be unlikely to jump over as well. Crane is an unknown to me along with Harris and Rosendale. I would have guessed Gosar wouldn't have flipped, though, so who knows.

I was looking for three for McCarthy, which gives him the Speakership, with four protest votes for Jordan. Doesn't look like that's happening this round.

Hard to say right now. I only feel confident in expecting Boebert and Gaetz to hold out for sure. My guess is Biggs and Good would be your other two but only because I am not familiar with the remaining holdouts.

[Res Ipsa]

I was looking for three for McCarthy, which gives him the Speakership, with four protest votes for Jordan. Doesn't look like that's happening this round.

Hard to say right now. I only feel confident in expecting Boebert and Gaetz to hold out for sure. My guess is Biggs and Good would be your other two but only because I am not familiar with the remaining holdouts.

Hard to say. It could be that this vote will split 5-2 just to stick a finger in McCarthy's eye and remind him who's really in charge, followed by a vote that elects McCarthy. Or the hardcore group is really serious that they will never ever vote for McCarthy. Another round may tell us.