China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

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Chap
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China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

Post by Chap »

The Deepseek A.I. system (https://www.deepseek.com)) is open source, free to use and my quick test suggests it performs about as well as ChatGPT. It was produced for a LOT less money than ChatGPT, and does not need high-capacity nVidia chips, which the US government has forbidden to be sold to China.

I asked it to write a poem about Donald Trump in a language that was not English, in a specified rather difficult poetic form. It did so at once, and did so quite well.

Understandably, certain stocks are crashing heavily. See the story here - maybe this points to a problem that tariffs can't solve?

Global tech shares fall as China A.I. chatbot DeepSeek spooks investors
Chinese startup’s $6m product raises doubts about sustainability of western artificial intelligence boom

Investors punished global tech stocks on Monday after the emergence of a Chinese chatbot competitor to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, DeepSeek, raised doubts about the sustainability of the US artificial intelligence boom.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index in New York opened lower after investors digested the implications of the latest A.I. model developed by the startup DeepSeek.

Nvidia, the most valuable listed company in the US and a leading maker of the computer chips that power A.I. models, lost more than $400bn (£321bn) in stock market value in early trading as its shares declined 13.6%, while Microsoft shed $130bn and Google’s parent, Alphabet, declined by $80bn.

Nvidia’s fall – which wiped about $465bn off its value, was the biggest in US stock market history, according to Bloomberg.

The DeepSeek A.I. assistant topped the Apple app store in the US and UK over the weekend, above OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Shares in other A.I.-related companies based in the US, such as Tesla, Meta and Amazon, all fell when US markets opened.

DeepSeek claims to have used fewer chips than its rivals to develop its models, making them cheaper to produce and raising questions over a multibillion-dollar A.I. spending spree by US companies that has boosted markets in recent years.

The company developed bespoke algorithms to build its models using reduced-capability H800 chips produced by Nvidia, according to a research paper published in December.

Nvidia’s most advanced chips, H100s, have been banned from export to China since September 2022 by US sanctions. Nvidia then developed the less powerful H800 chips for the Chinese market, although they were also banned from export to China last October.

DeepSeek’s success at building an advanced A.I. model without access to the most cutting-edge US technology has raised concerns about the efficacy of Washington’s attempts to stymie China’s hi-tech sector.

Marc Andreessen, a leading US venture capitalist, compared the launch of DeepSeek’s R1 model last Monday to a pivotal moment in the US-USSR space race, posting on X that it was A.I.’s “Sputnik moment”, when the Soviet Union astounded its cold war rival by launching a satellite into orbit.

According to DeepSeek, its R1 model outperforms OpenAI’s o1-mini model across “various benchmarks”, while research by Artificial Analysis puts it above models developed by Google, Meta and Anthropic in terms of overall quality.

The company was founded by the entrepreneur Liang Wenfeng, who runs a hedge fund, High-Flyer Capital, that uses A.I. to identify patterns in stock prices. Liang reportedly started buying Nvidia chips in 2021 to develop A.I. models as a hobby, bankrolled by his hedge fund. In 2023, he founded DeepSeek, which is based in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou.

The company is purely focused on research rather than commercial products – the DeepSeek assistant and underlying code can be downloaded for free, while DeepSeek’s models are also cheaper to operate than OpenAI’s o1. In an interview with Chinese media, Liang said “A.I. should be affordable and accessible to everyone.” Liang also said that the gap between US and Chinese A.I. was only one to two years.

The DeepSeek development raises doubts over the necessity for hefty investment in A.I. infrastructure such as chips and the market-leading role of US tech companies in A.I., which in turn threatens to put American tech sector valuations under pressure.

DeepSeek claims R1 cost $5.6m to develop, compared with much higher estimates for western-developed models. Last year Dario Amodei, the co-founder of leading A.I. firm Anthropic, put the current cost of training advanced models at between $100m and $1bn.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell on Monday, and technology stocks were down by 4.5%. The Dutch chipmaker ASML slid by 8.2%, while Germany’s Siemens Energy, which provides hardware for A.I. infrastructure, was down nearly 20%, and France’s digital automation company Schneider Electric fell by 9%.

It followed losses in Asia, where the Japanese chip companies Disco and Advantest – a supplier to Nvidia – suffered declines of 1.8% and 8.6% respectively. In the US, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 2.6%, and S&P 500 futures slipped 1.4%.

Richard Hunter, the head of markets at the platform Interactive Investor, said: “It will almost certainly put the cat among the pigeons as investors scramble to assess the potential damage it could have on a burgeoning industry, which has powered much of the gain seen in the main indices over the last couple of years.

“The larger question has suddenly become whether the hundreds of billions of dollar investment in A.I. needs re-evaluation.”

Andrew Duncan, the director of foundational A.I. at the UK’s Alan Turing Institute, said the DeepSeek development was “really exciting”.

He added: “It demonstrates that you can do amazing things with relatively small models and resources. It shows that you can innovate without having the massive resources, say, of OpenAI.”
Last edited by Chap on Tue Jan 28, 2025 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Gadianton
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Re: China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

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The selloff was in the cards one way or another; the market just needed an excuse. NVIDIA has been hitting resistance since October. But it is interesting news for sure. We should, of course, try to steal the technology if we can.
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Re: China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

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It should be the US leading open source A.I.. But Silicon Valley lost their idealism over a decade ago.

"Open A.I." is an Orwellian joke, there's nothing "open" about it.
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Re: China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

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Gadianton wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2025 2:30 am
The selloff was in the cards one way or another; the market just needed an excuse. NVIDIA has been hitting resistance since October. But it is interesting news for sure. We should, of course, try to steal the technology if we can.
It's supposedly open source, but I love a good caper for the flag of course.

https://venturebeat.com/A.I./open-source- ... less-cost/
https://github.com/deepseek-A.I./DeepSeek-V3

Steal, cheat, connive, let's get those yellow bastards. However, the better course is probably to study their open source and perhaps not overpay our tech heroes for their supposed prowess.
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Moksha
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Re: China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

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Trump could always ban it or tack on a 1000% tariff.
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canpakes
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Re: China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

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Gadianton wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2025 2:30 am
We should, of course, try to steal the technology if we can.
We can start by asking it, “How can I steal your technology?”
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Re: China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

Post by Kishkumen »

Dr Exiled wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2025 4:34 am
Steal, cheat, connive, let's get those yellow bastards. However, the better course is probably to study their open source and perhaps not overpay our tech heroes for their supposed prowess.
Uh, is this even acceptable as a form of humor?
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Gadianton
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Re: China gives us Deepseek: US markets crash

Post by Gadianton »

Kish, I don't think Dr. E really meant we shouldn't print money and hand it over to Elon and the A.I. and crypto bros, nor that we shouldn't seize the country of Greenland so that Peter Theil and his friends can have a place to build their own libertarian nation and LARP. But sure, he should be careful about joking about such things if that's what he was doing.
Social distancing has likely already begun to flatten the curve...Continue to research good antivirals and vaccine candidates. Make everyone wear masks. -- J.D. Vance
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