Rationale to Trump's Tariffs

[Gadianton]

I watched an interview with Stephen Miran that transpired post lib day. He's a weirdo. He is smart though. Could I glean anything from it? Perhaps enough. His deference to Trump is so absolute that it does make you wonder if he's simply letting you know that questions that put him in a bind will be met with the only thing he can say and keep his job.

A question arose about who came up with the silly formula. He said not him, but another advisor (whose idea Trump selected). He played apologist by affirming the president's executive order declares trade deficits a national crisis, and so it was suiting that the tariff plan was implemented on those terms. He defended the dumb formula but made it clear he had nothing to do with it.

He denied any policy reliance on his opinion paper from last year, saying that there is no master plan, and what gets implemented is team Trump. It's a one man operation -- the man with a mandate. However, his own opinions seemed to be in line with his paper. On who pays the tariff, he gave the analogy of a 30% property tax. The seller is stuck with the house he has while the buyer can shop elsewhere. When the seller lowers his price by 30%, the seller pays the tariff, and that's consistent with his paper that our importers will devalue their currency.

Great example. Except that, the house buyer not shopping elsewhere in the analogy is exactly the situation of the tariff failing to close the trade deficit, which is a national emergency. In order to close the deficit, the tariff must punish the buyer such that the buyer buys elsewhere. I get from him that tariffs are a justified rent on the dollar's world reserve status. You want the dollar and the disruptions that come to the US domestically to provide those dollars, then you can pay rents. But that's a complete 180 message from Trump's insistence that the trade deficit must close.

The most laugh-aloud part was his description of Trump as a master negotiator. There is no plan. His paper isn't the plan. The conflicting messaging is due to many different opinions about the situation within the cabinet. None of those opinions really matter including his (per him), because at the end of the day, everything that unfolds is the decision of the man with the mandate. This is exactly how some of us have imagined it, Trump is playing poker at the world table with the whole planet watching. Making it up as he goes -- thinking with his gut. Nobody can wheel and deal like him. Miran basically affirms that this is what's actually happening.

[canpakes]

From The Hill -

Cracks are growing between congressional Republicans and President Trump over his tariff policy, with some lawmakers looking to strip him of his unilateral tariff authority and others seeking briefings from the White House on the strategy amid growing economic tumult.

Seven Republican senators signed on to a bill led by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the Senate’s president pro tempore, and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) that would require the president to give Congress 48 hours notice of new tariffs, make them subject to congressional approval after 60 days, and allow Congress to rescind tariffs.

The legislative effort, which has emerged as a proxy fight for those against the tariffs, became a quick flashpoint on Monday the number of cosponsors grew and the White House threatened to veto the bill.

The attempt by the White House to nip the push in the bud only hours before lawmakers returned to the Capitol has not stemmed the concern among GOP lawmakers who worried that the economy could continue to tumble after Wall Street saw a third straight day in the red to open the week.

“It’s very hard to overturn a veto. … It doesn’t mean the battle isn’t worth having,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has not signed onto the bill, but has emerged as a leading voice against Trump’s widespread tariffs. “Win or lose, it’s worth the debate.”

Paul noted that he spoke over the weekend to a room of roughly 1,000 GOP voters in South Carolina, where he showered praise on Trump and his team but made clear that support did not extend to these extensive levies.

“But we have to, even if you’re supportive, question when millions of investors decided: ‘Wow, this thing is really going to screw up the economy,’ because these aren’t partisans. … They’re doing it to try to preserve their wealth and, for some, it’s their job,” Paul said. “These aren’t dumb people. These are millions of people who all came to the same conclusion. I think we do need to be worried about it.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/523 ... p-tariffs/

[Doctor Steuss]

From social media, the piece of spaghetti that appears to have stuck to the wall in trying to "it's chess, not checkers" this thing from MAGA cultists is that Trump is doing all of this in order to make the Fed lower interest rates.

That's where the cult has landed. Just ignore the fact that the thing that brought us the previously extremely low interest rates was almost 9 million jobs being lost, and trillions of dollars in socialist bailouts, handouts, and welfare.

Trump's chess plan here is to increase unemployment, and necessitate massive socialism, in order to make financing things cheaper.

[canpakes]

From social media, the piece of spaghetti that appears to have stuck to the wall in trying to "it's chess, not checkers" this thing from MAGA cultists is that Trump is doing all of this in order to make the Fed lower interest rates.

And it appeared that we were well on our way to achieving that goal when he took office. All Trump had to do was … nothing at all.

But everyone must pay for Trump and MAGA’s collective ego, and their expensive and destructive dog and pony show.

[Gadianton]

Another part I thought was funny, Miran repeatedly boasted Trump's legendary negotiation skills, and he backed it up with evidence at one point, saying that nobody believed Trump could clinch the "phase 1" deal with China yet he pulled it off. Looking into that, phase 1 required 200B increase in purchases of certain US exports and they didn't do any of it. Getting someone to agree with terms because you're so impossible they don't have much choice but to pay the terms lip service isn't the best way to ensure the treaty works. Xi was smart, he recognized that compromising would make Trump look strong and yield victory in the moment, and that following through was much less important because nobody is going to care six months down the road.

[Kishkumen]

Another part I thought was funny, Miran repeatedly boasted Trump's legendary negotiation skills, and he backed it up with evidence at one point, saying that nobody believed Trump could clinch the "phase 1" deal with China yet he pulled it off. Looking into that, phase 1 required 200B increase in purchases of certain US exports and they didn't do any of it. Getting someone to agree with terms because you're so impossible they don't have much choice but to pay the terms lip service isn't the best way to ensure the treaty works. Xi was smart, he recognized that compromising would make Trump look strong and yield victory in the moment, and that following through was much less important because nobody is going to care six months down the road.

This is the story of all of Trump's negotiations. They are performance art. Trump looking tough. Trump is such a sad lightweight that the only thing he can effectively pull off is destroying the country through his lawlessness and incompetence.

[Some Schmo]

This is the story of all of Trump's negotiations. They are performance art. Trump looking tough. Trump is such a sad lightweight that the only thing he can effectively pull off is destroying the country through his lawlessness and incompetence.

The funny thing is that Trump never does look tough. He just looks stupid.

It's never, Oh, that was a good move... how do they respond? It's always, Oh, Trump is blathering ignorance again... I bet they can't believe this idiot was elected...

[canpakes]

First, Trump was spooked by panic in the bond market from his ill-conceived tariff ‘strategy’, enough to quickly roll back most of his tariff declarations.

Now, he’s making exceptions on all of the items that he supposedly would want to see made in the US.

Most ineffective tariff strategy ever.

[I Have Questions]

First, Trump was spooked by panic in the bond market from his ill-conceived tariff ‘strategy’, enough to quickly roll back most of his tariff declarations.

Now, he’s making exceptions on all of the items that he supposedly would want to see made in the US.

Most ineffective tariff strategy ever.

It doesn’t give the impression that it’s a “strategy”. It’s more of a series of petulant outbursts by a spoilt brat.

[Chap]

Just remind me, who is kissing whose ass here?

If Trump was not a stupid ignorant person surrounded by sycophants who always agree with with him, he would never, ever, have put giant tariffs on electronic stuff. He would have known, or been told:

(a) Businesses like Apple depend crucially on low-cost production of electronic kit in China.

(b) It would take years to set up parallel facilities in the States, and the cost would be much higher.

(c) Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs would have caused large price rises for US consumers, and greatly damaged US businesses.

OK, so the tech bros phoned Mar a Lago and gave him a piece of their minds, and Trump caved.

I wonder what Xi Jinping thinks and feels when he realises that his major world rival is led by somebody like Trump?