November Election Thread

[_subgenius]

There is a good chance Repubs remain control of both House and Senate. The only "success" with Democrats will be among their fringe elements thus fueling their further self-destructing hair fire, resulting in an implosion that shatters Democratic hopes in 2020.

The Democrats are likely going to take back the House. According to 538, the Democrats now have a 81.7% chance of taking back the House. Link

538 now has Democrat Abby Finkenauer with a 96.7% chance of winning Iowa 1st Congressional district. Link

538 now has Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick with a 96.4% chance of winning the Arizona's 2nd Congressional district. Link

538 now has Democrat Mike Levin with a 95% chance of winning California's 49th Congressional district. Link


According to 538, the Republicans now have a 80.7% chance of keeping the Senate. Link

538 now has Republican Kevin Cramer with a 66.4% chance of defeating Incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp. Link

I do think that Senator Heitkamp will lose her reelection bid. North Dakota is a much redder state now than it was back in 2012. Back in 2012, Heitkamp just barely won her Senate election while Romney won North Dakota by about 20 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won North Dakota by as much as 36 percentage points. The Democrats unable to win that Senate race in North Dakota will make it basically impossible for the Democrats to take back the Senate this election.

538 now has Nevada GOP Senator Dean Heller with a 58.9% of winning his reelection bid. Link

538 now has Arizona Democrat Kyrsten Sinema with a 64.3% of winning her Senate election. Link

While I will be voting for Kyrsten Sinema for Senate, I don't really agree with 538 with Sinema having that high of a percentage chance of her winning. I would put Sinema's chances of winning this Arizona Senate race at about 55%. And Romney was recently in Arizona here to help get out the Mormon vote for Republican Martha McSally.

538 now has Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly with a 78.3% chance of winning his reelection bid. Link

538 is not a reliable source, peddle your tea leaf reading stats elsewhere.
Perhaps try a "what do i think" instead of a "what did 538 tell me to think" kinda approach.

reference also via FiveThirtyEight:
Hillary Clinton
71.4% of winning

Donald Trump
28.6% of winning

[_EAllusion]

If Democrats lose the House, which they easily could, they're likely to do it while winning one of the larger landslides in votes in the past 50 years. That we even talk about the election like it is in doubt even though Republicans have less than 1% chance of winning a majority of votes speaks to the strength of their anti-majoritian edge in the chamber that's theoretically supposed to be proportional to popular will.

There will be a breaking point with this if it doesn't stop. I don't know when or in what form, but no democracy sustains a minority institutionally locking out a majority without democracy itself becoming threatened or there being a counter-wave that smashes the minority. Those are the options given enough time.

[_Kevin Graham]

I don't get math

Yeah no kidding.

You're the same idiot that tried to argue with Steelhead about volume calculations of water required to flood the earth years ago. How can you be an architect and not know that volume is increasing at the cube of the radius for a sphere?

We're supposed to take you serious now because you think 71.4% means 100%?

[_Water Dog]

Okay. So, recap. So far the Democrat's strategy is: Destroy the #metoo movement and unite conservatives, Hillary goes on national tv to defend her rapist husband again, Elizabeth Warren provides proof she's been lying all these years, media tries really hard to spin this as a vindication, oh and 60 minutes landed an interview with Trump in which even after heavy editing he comes across taking them to the woodshed so badly Variety declares him the winner of every segment as if it was a debate. Oh yeah, and pink tutu lady. Oh, and Beto is going to lose, so now Democrats want him to give his campaign money to other candidates and he says "finders keepers." Among other things. Any good news for Democrats anywhere? Oh yeah, 538 still thinks they'll take the house.

Lot of game left to play.

Oh yeah, almost forgot, creepy porn lawyer and his prostitute client lose in court, ordered to pay Trump legal fees. LOL. Kevin "Avenatti" Graham.

[_subgenius]

Okay. So, recap. So far the Democrat's strategy is: ...

to be fair their strategy has been:
1. Honor the election results - *omg its over for him now, donate money
2. Election results are unreliable - *omg its over for him now, donate money
3. Electoral college is anti-democratic - *omg its over for him now, donate money
4. Russia! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
5. Rich White guy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
6. He is going to take away SSM, Gynecology, and make you get a job! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
7. Stormy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
8. Russia! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
9. Stormy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
10. Manafort! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
11. Stormy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
12. Russia! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
13. Cohen! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
14. Puerto Rico! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
15. Rich White guy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
16. Dr. Ford! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
17. His dad cheated on taxes (how un-american) - *omg its over for him now, donate money
18. Kanye is not the right kind of black person! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
19. Elizabeth Warren is a minority! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
20.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desensiti ... psychology)
21.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)

[_Water Dog]

Oh, how can democrats screw up the Kavanaugh debacle even more? This is how.

Recently Senator Heidi Heitkamp’s campaign ran an ad (see below) formulated as an open letter sent to Congressman Kevin Cramer by survivors of sexual assault.

The letter purports that some of Cramer’s recent comments about the controversy surrounding the appointment of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh were insensitive, but at least four of the women named in the ad feel like they got the raw end of the deal.

Kady Miller of Bismarck is one of the women named in the ad, but says in a Facebook post that “A lot of these people listed, including me, did not give anyone permission for our names to be posted.”

“I don’t even support Heidi Heitkamp and I am not a domestic abuse survivor,” she continues.

https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/w ... ermission/

Just wow.

[_Water Dog]

And then this in MO. Democrats are triggering their own people against them.

A St. Louis woman says she received an unsolicited and inappropriate text from the Missouri Democratic Party that she claims used sexual assault as a "get out and vote" method.

For a survivor of sexual assault, she says it goes too far.

Ads on Facebook, radio and TV are everywhere as the November election draws near.

The current #MeToo movement, along with the recent hearings for Justice Brett Kavanaugh, make sexual assault a part of the campaign.

"Do not politicize sexual assault or rape," said the woman, who wished to remain anonymous to protect her privacy.

Something she felt was violated when she received a text message this week.

"It really upset me, I never signed up to be on their text message list," she added. "We need to make sure people take sexual assault seriously and protect survivors."

https://www.kmov.com/news/survivor-clai ... 4539b.html

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/20 ... t-comments

From the comments section:

Now if Mitt only lived in Utah, he could be the perfect representative of the white male patriarchy that infects the Beehive State. Good luck with you West Coast Carpetbagger Utah, you truly deserve the filth you refuse to wash away

It's a well known fact.
The majority of voters in Utah vote GOP/LDS (am I supposed to write that out ?) because they do as they are raised and told. My parents taught us to think for ourselves. We learn about the candidate and vote for the one we think will do the best job based on our own opinion, not that of others.

I have no idea why Mitt is even showing up at anything, didn't the folks already raise their right hand to a square and say "Yes" at LDS inc comicon? They guy has done nothing campaign wise because he doesn't have to, the fools who vote for him and hoist him on the rest of us are simply that..fools. Mitt and W h orrin are one in the same....we gain nothing but we most certainly will lose more.

So instead of a progressive, committed, intelligent resident of the state, we get a generic, anodyne carpetbagger MittBot 3.0, who will go back to Washington, posture and preen for the Fox cameras, kiss Trump*s flabby orange butt, and rake in millions from donors, while doing absolutely nothing for the citizens of Utah that he's supposed to represent. Meet the Mormons!

Persecuted "Massachusetts" has hoodwinked, all of the of the non thinking sheep..Why is he campaigning in Arizona for a Republican woman, who is running to take Mormon Jeff Flakes seat../s
I still say arrogant Flip-flopping Romney is setting himself up too run for president in 2020..Anyone who is planning on voting for him should ask the question..If elected senator will you serve out your full term? I think he'll quit and nominate one of his politically climbing sons to take his place.
Romney is 73 years old and has had prostate cancer and his wife has MS..Why would a couple with so much money not spend time together in one of their many homes...Romney, puts his money in off shore accounts and Swiss banks, to avoid paying U.S. Taxes, closed down companies he bought up under Bain Investment, closed them down and claimed bankruptcy on them, then moved them and jobs to foreign countries, laying off hundreds of U.S. Workers causing them to loose their pensions that us U.S. Taxpayers bailed out.While he and his investors continued to make Millions of dollars.
After his arrogant 47% comment in 2012 before a crowd of rich 1% donors in Florida when he was running for president, I don't know how any decent Human being could vote for him..He called Our Veterans, the Working poor and their Children, the Elderly and the Mentally ill.. Freeloaders. Saying if elected it wouldn't be his job to concern himself with "Those" people.He discounted almost half the population..Bigly sad.
Christian Con-servative Romney, is also against DACA, and said he'll be harder on immigration than amoral, cruel, racist Trump, who locks Children up in cages and separates families.. He a phony, a fraud and fake, who suffers from bones spurs, just the guy he said the same thing about.

It only goes downhill from there. Man, if this is the message Democrats are consistently sending out into the ether they're not going to do well this November.

- Doc

[_Water Dog]

I can understand why some would see him a carpetbagger, certainly truth to that. This sort of unhinged demonstrates an intense lack of situational awareness. In the grand scheme of things Romney is pretty moderate. He will be another Flake type. The idea that Utah would elect a "progressive" is so much silly. If the Mormon royalty wasn't being ordained, someone like Lee or Chaffetz would win. All these comments boil down to, "I HATE MY NEIGHBORS." Then move, nobody likes you anyway.

I have this theory. It's my general observation that leftists in Utah are way more fanatical, on the average, than leftists in other places. It has something to do with the exmo phenomena. Raised with the persecution complex, a form of victimhood culture, and then all this is compounded through the process of ostracization that pairs with disaffection from the church. And much like politics, a lot of the people who disaffect do so not for intellectual but emotional reasons. They were already the one that couldn't get along. And now they find themselves in a minority position, where they feel they have been victimized in every way imaginable by the culture that surrounds them. They feel powerless. This sort of intense lash out is what you get.

Reeeeee

This Kyrsten Sinema woman fits that mold perfectly. She doesn't just side with the democrats and live on the left, she's freaking all in. Full on anti war baby killer protests, saying all the unhinged things, never married open bisexual, etc., etc. She's smart though, so she's tried to remake herself as a sane person over these past several years. But her history reveals what she is. And her approach in dealing with these revelations reveals she is still very much that person.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Okay. So, recap. So far the Democrat's strategy is: ...

to be fair their strategy has been:
1. Honor the election results - *omg its over for him now, donate money
2. Election results are unreliable - *omg its over for him now, donate money
3. Electoral college is anti-democratic - *omg its over for him now, donate money
4. Russia! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
5. Rich White guy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
6. He is going to take away SSM, Gynecology, and make you get a job! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
7. Stormy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
8. Russia! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
9. Stormy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
10. Manafort! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
11. Stormy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
12. Russia! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
13. Cohen! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
14. Puerto Rico! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
15. Rich White guy! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
16. Dr. Ford! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
17. His dad cheated on taxes (how un-american) - *omg its over for him now, donate money
18. Kanye is not the right kind of black person! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
19. Elizabeth Warren is a minority! - *omg its over for him now, donate money
20.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desensiti ... psychology)
21.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)

And it's having the unintentional consequence of Trump already securing $106M in donations for an election that's two years away.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/politics ... index.html

- Doc