If a Democrat suggested tariffs instead of Trump, progressives would be throwing a party over those tariffs!

[yellowstone123]

Get real. Tariffs can potentially work as a scalpel along with subsidies to accomplish geo-political goals, but nobody that you think is a progressive on this forum would support Biden if he put up a wall of tariffs enough crash the stock market and push us into a recession.

The main one playing identity politics is you.

I read that the bond market already indicates the USA is heading for a recession no matter what the stock market does. Can Trump’s short time period in office influence it ? I’m not sure. I’m sure uncontrolled spending/borrowing affects the health of the US economy.

[Chap]

Get real. Tariffs can potentially work as a scalpel along with subsidies to accomplish geo-political goals, but nobody that you think is a progressive on this forum would support Biden if he put up a wall of tariffs enough crash the stock market and push us into a recession.

The main one playing identity politics is you.

I read that the bond market already indicates the USA is heading for a recession no matter what the stock market does. Can Trump’s short time period in office influence it ? I’m not sure. I’m sure uncontrolled spending/borrowing affects the health of the US economy.

The stock market began massive falls as soon as Trump's Rose Garden proclamation of unprecedented tariffs on many countries was made and the markets reopened. This was not a long term phenomenon: Trump spoke, and a world-wide crash began. Don't kid yourself on this. It was cause and effect of an extremely obvious kind.

[Gadianton]

I read that the bond market already indicates the USA is heading for a recession no matter what the stock market does. Can Trump’s short time period in office influence it ? I’m not sure. I’m sure uncontrolled spending/borrowing affects the health of the US economy.

Are you saying the bond market was pointing to a recession prior to the tariff announcement (that Hound believes are the envy of the Democrats), and did you mean to say I'm *not* sure rather than I'm sure? Is your second question indicating that Trump may have some policies that would correct the oncoming recession if he had more time?

I wouldn't want to respond without understanding what you mean, exactly.

[Chap]

On the topic of bonds in particular:

10-year Treasury yield falls on fear that trade war will lead to recession

CNBC
U.S. Treasury yields continued to plummet on Friday, with 10-year Treasury yield earlier falling below 4%, after China retaliated against President Donald Trump’s aggressive “reciprocal tariff” policy rollout, causing investors to flood into bonds for safety on fears of a global recession.

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 4 basis points to 4.015%, hitting its lowest level since October. The yield had topped 4.8% earlier this year on hopes that Trump would rev up the U.S. economy with tax cuts.

The 2-year Treasury yield shed 5.5 basis points to trade at 3.67%. One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that he expects Trump’s tariffs to raise inflation and curtail growth, noting that the central bank faces a “highly uncertain outlook” due to the new raft of levies announced this week.

He indicated that policymakers are ready to stand pat on rates until they receive further detail on the impact of the tariffs.

“We are well positioned to wait for clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy,” Powell said in prepared remarks delivered before journalists in Arlington, Va.

China early Friday said that it would slap a 34% tariff on all U.S. good starting April 10 following Trump’s blitz earlier in the week that would mean an effective rate on some China goods of as high as 54%.

Investors have flooded into Treasurys for safety over the past few days, pushing yields lower, after Trump’s tariff rollout was signed into effect on Wednesday evening. The plan, which set a 10% baseline tariff across the board, hit over 180 countries and hammered global markets.

“Clearly, the rally is about pricing in the trade war rather than last month’s employment data,” said Ian Lyngen, managing director and head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. “If anything, this will galvanize Trump’s negotiating stance and leave the Fed without much room to be dovish -- after all, the hard data continues to perform well.”

The 10-year rate has tumbled since ending last week at around 4.25% on fears a trade war could raise prices and slow the economy into a recession.

See the whole article, and the chart that forms part of it.

[yellowstone123]

I read that the bond market already indicates the USA is heading for a recession no matter what the stock market does. Can Trump’s short time period in office influence it ? I’m not sure. I’m sure uncontrolled spending/borrowing affects the health of the US economy.

Are you saying the bond market was pointing to a recession prior to the tariff announcement (that Hound believes are the envy of the Democrats), and did you mean to say I'm *not* sure rather than I'm sure? Is your second question indicating that Trump may have some policies that would correct the oncoming recession if he had more time?

I wouldn't want to respond without understanding what you mean, exactly.

Thanks for the question, Gadianton.

I meant could Trump’s short term in office influence bonds. Could his announcement on tariffs influence bonds. I’m not really involved in either one and the things that I have posted recently were read on X after the announcement. No one here or on X has brought up the constant debt/spending/printing of federal reserve notes to the equation. Given the debt, tariffs may cause havoc, but I think it needs to be added to the equation. I don’t follow stocks and bonds that closely so when explaining the issue please keep it simple.

The other thing is this trade thing and tarrifs seem to have interesting history. President Clinton was pro NAFTA and pro adding China into the WTO which was suppose to open their borders to American goods. Bernie Sanders and Pat Buchanan were opposed to NAFTA. It just seems the issue being discussed today is coming full circle and it’s an issue again.

[Gadianton]

I meant could Trump’s short term in office influence bonds. Could his announcement on tariffs influence bonds. I’m not really involved in either one and the things that I have posted recently were read on X after the announcement. No one here or on X has brought up the constant debt/spending/printing of federal reserve notes to the equation. Given the debt, tariffs may cause havoc, but I think it needs to be added to the equation. I don’t follow stocks and bonds that closely so when explaining the issue please keep it simple.

I'm no international finance guru and I can only scratch the surface. Stocks are crashing, which means bonds should do okay, as they are safer, at least initially, while speculation swirls about what the fed will do in response. The national debt is a "concern" but nobody can really say how much debt is too much. According to Stephen Miran, China's debt is 3.5x GDP. The US sits at 1.2x GDP. And so if a trade war is a threat to indebted nations, then the US is in a better position. A trade deficit implies that China buys bonds -- to keep its low exchange rate and exports attractive, it either holds the dollars or buys bonds, or invests in US financial markets. They can't exchange the dollar for Yuan because that strengthens the Yuan and makes their exports more expensive. BUT -- what if they did? What if the whole world reacts by allowing the trade deficit to close? Then, the whole world will be buying fewer US bonds. That means the US can only run fiscal deficits by the Fed and US costumers being the main customer to the US Treasury. That means that the other half of the Trump plan, to cut taxes for the rich and print money instead to cover it, is in direct opposition to the Trump plan to restore balance of trade, as it's contrary to the Republican view that the US debt is a ticking time bomb. If the debt is in reality a ticking time bomb and we're going to default, do you want to default on US investors or foreign investors?

You are right to wonder about what bonds are doing. Understanding how bonds work (price and yields inversely correlated and risk premia per maturation dates) is the cornerstone of all money and financial market theory. If you get good at visualizing how bond prices and yields move in various scenarios, mastering that alone may qualify you as a portfolio manager. I get tripped up all the time. If I were really serious about learning this stuff, I'd practice bond exercises the way a pianist practices scales.

The other thing is this trade thing and tariffs seem to have interesting history. President Clinton was pro NAFTA and pro adding China into the WTO which was suppose to open their borders to American goods. Bernie Sanders and Pat Buchanan were opposed to NAFTA. It just seems the issue being discussed today is coming full circle and it’s an issue again.

It absolutely is coming full circle. Clinton was way wrong about how policy would play out. But isolationism just means losing ground to other countries that take advantage of trade. In retrospect, I'm one of those who would push the button to NOT trade with China. Putting the genie back in the bottle is a whole other story. Tariffs aren't going to bring back the middle class, and if we're pushed to a crises, the crash and recovery will push inequality further to the rich. To be clear: there is nothing to find in trade policy that will fix wealth inequality.

[yellowstone123]

Thank you, Gadianton. I understand what you are saying. I appreciate it.

[dantana]

When I go to the nutritionist I explain to her she cannot give me a one-size-fits-all diet. I will not eat kelp for breakfast lunch and dinner. You must adjust for real life. When I go to the driving range I tell the instructor, I am not 25 anymore. you must adjust you lesson for someone whose left arm does not pivot on a swivel. You must adjust for real life.

When I go to the White House I tell Trump - Manufacturing cannot turn on a plant like throwing a light switch. You want to bring jobs and manufacturing back to the states? Great. Fine. Wonderful idea. I hate cheap offshore product as much as the next guy. But, you cannot come in throwing bombs and expect the American voter to re-hire your party four years from now, which is the amount of time - and more, that it takes to get a plant on the ground. The Am. voter is fickle and has the focus of a herd of squirrels. Hell, you will prob. be impeached again in two years because of your antics. You need to adjust to the times, read the room instead of throwing haymakers and you would have had a much better chance of buying your party another term after you. Which is what it will take to get a manufacturer to feel safe. Projected stability.

A new Dailymail poll shows that Trump has gained 4 percentage points in his favorability rating since implementing tariffs. Once again, the progressives have opted to align themselves with the wrong side, demonstrating a willingness to sway to the rhythm of a suicide dance that will lead them off the edge of a cliff!

A polling of the inmates as to their level of love for dear leader is not a measure of the correctness of my statement. The statement: To bring industry to a country one is going to need to provide projected stability and a certain amount of time. Trump is providing neither with his clown car show.

As an aside, I've been working on obtaining a building permit for a single family residence here in Oregon for almost four months now. Still don't have it. How much longer it must take to get a production plant up and running.

[Some Schmo]

Let's clarify something right from the start, Trump's approach to tariffs, alongside efforts to reduce income and business taxes, is an innovative strategy that hasn't been attempted in our lifetime.

I was wondering how the cult was talking about Trump these days.

Seriously... we need a new word for the Trump fan level of stupidity, because our current lexicon is inadequate to really capture how dumb his fans are. My cat is smarter than these people, and he's a bit dim himself.

[Chap]

Let's clarify something right from the start, Trump's approach to tariffs, alongside efforts to reduce income and business taxes, is an innovative strategy that hasn't been attempted in our lifetime.

I was wondering how the cult was talking about Trump these days.

Seriously... we need a new word for the Trump fan level of stupidity, because our current lexicon is inadequate to really capture how dumb his fans are. My cat is smarter than these people, and he's a bit dim himself.

I love it. An innovative strategy that hasn't been attempted in our lifetime.

About the same could have been said if he had appeared on Fox News hitting himself in the head with a brick. I don't think ANY president of the US in anybody's lifetime has ever tried that!