Prediction: Bye, Bye, Biden

[Gunnar]

There is only one thing that will give me a measure of hope here, and this is if she chooses a good running mate. I am thinking Mayor Pete. Which may be risky, but that guy will destroy J.D. Vance in the vice presidential debate.

I think either Buttigieg or Sheldon Whitehouse would make mincemeat out of J.D. Vance in any Vice-Presidential candidate debate. I agree that "Mayor Pete" might be risky because the MAGA controlled Republican Party will unfairly attack and defame him mercilessly because of his sexual orientation, but on the other hand, Whitehouse might be risky because he doesn't have nearly as widespread name recognition as Buttigieg does. Besides that, I don't know if Whitehouse has any inclination to accept the nomination if offered to him.

[Xenophon]

The Clintons endorsed her, and I am sure Obama will. I have a feeling this was the preferred outcome from the outset, maybe even the objective behind the coup, and that those who were against it just didn't have confidence in her as a candidate. I don't really have confidence in her as a candidate. I think she could do the job. Certainly she would do it better than Trump. But I am not convinced that she will pull in new voters or even keep Biden's 2020 voters.

I think the odds that she is the nominee are well above 50% but I'm worried in how we get there. Prior to Biden dropping out I had seen a lot of signaling for an open nomination process at the convention which could lead to all sorts of chaos. I think your trepidation with her as a candidate is very fair. Certainly she is supremely qualified but I think there is an in-built assumption in those backing Biden's exit that his incumbency advantage will transfer/translate to her which I don't believe is a given. She certainly has more claim to the successes of the administration than any other Democrat but it remains to be seen if she'll keep it all. I also expressed concerns previously that she is at relatively even before the GOP campaign machine turns against her. There is a dramatic difference in the scrutiny placed on Presidential candidates vs VPs so I hope she can maintain (and improve) on that as she enters the spotlight.

[Kishkumen]

Then you'll just have to go back to China and have them release a virus that will make cheat by mail necessary again.

Conspiracy kooks are sad people. Sorry for your loss.

[Kishkumen]

I think either Buttigieg or Sheldon Whitehouse would make mincemeat out of J.D. Vance in any Vice-Presidential candidate debate. I agree that "Mayor Pete" might be risky because the MAGA controlled Republican Party will unfairly attack and defame him mercilessly because of his sexual orientation, but on the other hand, Whitehouse might be risky because he doesn't have nearly as widespread name recognition as Buttigieg does. Besides that, I don't know if Whitehouse has any inclination to accept the nomination if offered to him.

Good points. I hope we don't have an all-California ticket (Harris/Newsom). I don't think that helps very much, and both of them lack gravitas, in my opinion.

[Gunnar]

I think either Buttigieg or Sheldon Whitehouse would make mincemeat out of J.D. Vance in any Vice-Presidential candidate debate. I agree that "Mayor Pete" might be risky because the MAGA controlled Republican Party will unfairly attack and defame him mercilessly because of his sexual orientation, but on the other hand, Whitehouse might be risky because he doesn't have nearly as widespread name recognition as Buttigieg does. Besides that, I don't know if Whitehouse has any inclination to accept the nomination if offered to him.

Good points. I hope we don't have an all-California ticket (Harris/Newsom). I don't think that helps very much, and both of them lack gravitas, in my opinion.

Besides that, I have the impression that Newsom feels duty bound to complete his full term as Governor before running for any other position. I could be wrong, about that, I suppose.

[honorentheos]

I think either Buttigieg or Sheldon Whitehouse would make mincemeat out of J.D. Vance in any Vice-Presidential candidate debate. I agree that "Mayor Pete" might be risky because the MAGA controlled Republican Party will unfairly attack and defame him mercilessly because of his sexual orientation, but on the other hand, Whitehouse might be risky because he doesn't have nearly as widespread name recognition as Buttigieg does. Besides that, I don't know if Whitehouse has any inclination to accept the nomination if offered to him.

Good points. I hope we don't have an all-California ticket (Harris/Newsom). I don't think that helps very much, and both of them lack gravitas, in my opinion.

And it's electoral suicide to have both the President and VP from California. Section 2 and the 12th amendment being what they are.

[Kishkumen]

And it's electoral suicide to have both the President and VP from California. Section 2 and the 12th amendment being what they are.

D’oh!!! Yeah! Oops!

[drumdude]

Prior to Biden dropping out I had seen a lot of signaling for an open nomination process at the convention which could lead to all sorts of chaos.

Thankfully Kish doesn't have time for these delusional non-sequiturs.

[Bret Ripley]

Democracy IS on the ballot.

I really wish that were an exaggeration. It's like people forget that Trump literally tried to subvert the democratic process by pressuring his VP into illegally overturning the election results.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-cap ... 022-06-16/

[hauslern]

Ukraine will breath a sigh of relief. If Trump loses, comedians will lose their favorite subject for jokes. Putin will give Trump a villa on the Black Sea. Fox News will support Marjorie Taylor-Greene.