Prediction: Bye, Bye, Biden

[Xenophon]

Where I remain frustrated is in the process that got us here. The lack of a primary process due to Biden being an incumbent president is where I feel the DNC and those around Biden failed the country. We need more transparency than we had.

This has been my biggest beef from the outset. I can at least understand the American public seeming concerned as there is such a disconnect between what small glimpse we get of politicians and what actually goes on day in, day out. But all the feigned concern from the folks that are around him constantly rang as very disingenuous. Party leadership could have pressed this issue much earlier, at the appropriate time, but they didn't care until they thought it might impact them.

I also hope that this change this "late" in the process may affect how ridiculously long our campaign seasons have become. Most countries don't have perpetual elections and maybe if the parties start to question the candidate change as a tactic that could be exploited then maybe we will see campaign season go back to kicking off after Labor Day rather than years before the actual election date. Probably not but one can hope.

Very nice thoughts, but like you I won't hold my breath.

[drumdude]

If his health continues to decline rapidly then I think those who asked for him to drop out will be vindicated. We will see.

Will we? We may not. I am not sure how public he will be post-presidency.

Very true. Some depends on how much Republicans want to push the investigation into any health coverups. They could very easily make it Kamala’s “Russiagate” if she is elected, in my opinion.

[Kishkumen]

My take, whether his age and health would prevent him from executing on the actual operations of the job is a moot point. He was expending too much political capital spinning his wheels against that narrative. We can argue about how much Democrats gave over to that narrative and if it was right but it didn't change the reality of what Biden was facing. It isn't always great but so much of politics is optics and the optics of the debate into the internal party pressure was just too much for him to overcome. Perhaps if the political landscape was different (less partisan approval numbers, less at stake for the November election, stronger Democrat unity, etc.) he could have served out another term and let the excellent people around him do their work. But here we are, and I think his call and how he played it was about as perfect as could be expected given the situation.

You are right, but to me “the narrative” and “optics” have come to weigh too heavily in the calculation of politics. I have a story about these events that opens with a Hollywood star writing a bitchy letter critiquing the president’s debate performance and ends with that president quitting his job. The narrative is driven by people who are so caught up in appearances that substance takes a back seat. And we wonder why people vote for Trump. Obviously this has become a show. The big difference is which channel you prefer tuning into.

[Xenophon]

You are right, but to me “the narrative” and “optics” have come to weigh too heavily in the calculation of politics. I have a story about these events that opens with a Hollywood star writing a bitchy letter critiquing the president’s debate performance and ends with that president quitting his job. The narrative is driven by people who are so caught up in appearances that substance takes a back seat. And we wonder why people vote for Trump. Obviously this has become a show. The big difference is which channel you prefer tuning into.

You'll find no disagreement from me. Certainly the 24 hour news cycle and media in general play a huge role in that but I also think Democrat are very bad about ceding control to it.

[Some Schmo]

Where I remain frustrated is in the process that got us here. The lack of a primary process due to Biden being an incumbent president is where I feel the DNC and those around Biden failed the country. We need more transparency than we had.

Are you saying both parties should have a full primary every 4 years? I don't ever remember a serious primary season for the incumbent party.

Harris's nomination doesn't bother me from a "does she deserve to be there" perspective because Biden voters implicitly voted for her as VP. Especially given Joe's age, one has to think people voted for him knowing it was possible Harris would have to take over at some point.

[Xenophon]

Are you saying both parties should have a full primary every 4 years? I don't ever remember a serious primary season for the incumbent party.

Harris's nomination doesn't bother me from a "does she deserve to be there" perspective because Biden voters implicitly voted for her as VP. Especially given Joe's age, one has to think people voted for him knowing it was possible Harris would have to take over at some point.

Not to answer for honor by here is my two cents. I don't necessarily believe they need a full primary every 4 years per se. But Biden's age and the desire from a whole host of the party to see him only serve one term and make way for younger blood is not some new narrative that only popped up after his debate. Party leadership didn't entertain that notion at the time and instead waited to give any push back until well after the primary and it was too late to actually let the people speak for themselves. Had they had the hard conversation early who knows how things might have gone. Sure we might have had the exact same result but at least it would have been open and transparent. You're right that it rarely happens but it isn't without precedent.


As far as supporting the ticket = being okay with Harris as President... I'm not sure that holds up under much scrutiny. Given the lack of options in primary and that when polled something like ~40% of the population can't name the VP I can definitely understand why voters may feel this was "forced" on them.

Personally I support Harris and I think she'll make a fine President from what I've seen but that doesn't change the fact that democratic leadership bungled this whole process.

Edit: that isn't to remove Biden's hubris in this, just that ultimately I believe the party as a collective has to be the one to make the call.

[Kishkumen]

But Biden's age and the desire from a whole host of the party to see him only serve one term and make way for younger blood is not some new narrative that only popped up after his debate.

I guess I really don’t understand politics, but isn’t the president considered the leader of his party? Did he make some deal with the Obama people that they would remain at the helm? That’s what this feels like. He made an agreement to be single term, and then it would be Harris’s time. He didn’t stick to the deal because, frankly, giving up the incumbent advantage is dumb when he beat Trump the last time. (In other words, Democrats did not anticipate facing Trump again when the original deal was struck.) The bad debate performance gave the Obama people the opening to stage a party coup (that’s what it is, after all), and now the Obama people have what they wanted in the first place.

I hope their gamble doesn’t cost us four more years of Trump. Obama had a reputation for arrogance and not working well with others. This move has his fingerprints all over it. Still, I really don’t want Trump, so I will vote for Harris. I don’t think Harris is the best person for the job. She may be the only person who has a shot now, because of what the Democrats pulled. I am much happier voting for Harris than someone even less likely to win. Biden, Democrat panic aside, may have had a better chance.

We have been asked to trust the mood of the moment over the historical trends in presidential contests. If this works, I will have no reason to complain. If it does not, we have real cause for anger against Democrat leaders and their entertainment network of pundits and celebs.

[Manetho]

He made an agreement to be single term, and then it would be Harris’s time.

Biden never promised to serve only one term. Reports that he made such a promise were never based on anything he himself said.

[Kishkumen]

Biden never promised to serve only one term. Reports that he made such a promise were never based on anything he himself said.

Someone has repeatedly put it out there, and I doubt it was for no reason. As I said, I don’t think Obama’s team ever liked Biden or wanted him to be president. Perhaps they put out the idea of one term. And they pounced when they had an opening.

[Bret Ripley]

Biden never promised to serve only one term. Reports that he made such a promise were never based on anything he himself said.

Someone has repeatedly put it out there, and I doubt it was for no reason.

From a 2019 Politico story:

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s top advisers and prominent Democrats outside the Biden campaign have recently revived a long-running debate whether Biden should publicly pledge to serve only one term, with Biden himself signaling to aides that he would serve only a single term.

While the option of making a public pledge remains available, Biden has for now settled on an alternative strategy: quietly indicating that he will almost certainly not run for a second term while declining to make a promise that he and his advisers fear could turn him into a lame duck and sap him of his political capital.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/1 ... erm-082129