Calling it "Politically Motivated"

[Gadianton]

Both Trumpers and liberals are in a fork when it comes to criticisms or apologetics of Trump tariffs, but its far worse for the unibrow Trumpers.

Tariffs passing full costs to consumers such that the US is forced to re-industrialize is NOT a short term pain, which is how unibrow Trumpers are taking it. "Oh, it will hurt a little but America will be a great exporter once it's all over." That's a big, long-term pain. But that's not the origin of the talking point. The "brief pain" as Miran explains (also in interviews on TV), comes only if countries evade the tariff.

When we export dollars to China and import cheap crap, China holds the dollars or buys US treasuries. Why? The short-term answer is that any other option disrupts its gig as an exporter. If China exchanges dollars for Yuans, that puts pressure on the Yuan, makes it more expensive, and its exports suffer. Miran takes it as a given that the response to a tariff will be currency devaluation. That a country already implicitly keeps its currency down by holding dollars makes devaluation the obvious extension of that logic. And when it devalues, it effectively pays the Tariff. The tariff doesn't pass through to US consumers. Miran calculates (based on theory) that a 10% tariff will result in the "brief pain" of a one-time price shock to American consumers of 1%. He justifies this further with outcomes of the original tariffs on China not leading to inflation.

Unibrow Trumpers appear to misconstrue what the "brief pain" is supposed to be. It's the one-time price shock as trading partners pay the tariff rather than submit to it. So in that sense, liberals are wrong also. In theory, yes, Americans pay the tariff, but only if the tariff hits consumers, which it won't if the importers devalue their currency in response. But if importers devalue, then how does that help the balance of trade? It doesn't! The dollar becomes stronger, and the US is LESS an exporter than it was prior to the tariffs! I almost feel like Miran may have wrote the paper in part to convince Trump's team that their logic is bogus, and to gently suggest options.

Miran shifts to the idea that Trump views Tariffs as a negotiation tool (possibly suggesting to Trump to view it that way only?). Now that the countries "pay the tax", can he get better cooperation for a more sustainable plan to de-value the dollar in a friendlier way, at which time the tariffs drop.

Miran explicitly views the solution to trade imbalance -- something he believes really is a problem -- as solved by weakening the dollar in a collusion between world leaders to do so, like Plaza Accord. If the dollar weakens, exports increase. Tariffs play no fundamental role other than retrofitting around Trump's personal bombastic style.

[Markk]

If they stopped getting our dollars, that would mean we are not buying their products, and return their growth would stall and decline.

Why?

What can Chinese people do with American paper, that they cannot do without it?

I explained it above.... in short "growth." if you are talking about paper and not dollars, probably nothing, and I have no idea why you would inject that into this conversation. other than you did not read what I wrote.

Maybe you can expound a bit on what you mean by paper?

[Physics Guy]

No, you didn't explain. You just said "growth". What does that mean? Why can growth only happen in China if China has enough US dollars?

I'm not just being perverse, here. One of the worst ways of not understanding something is to think one has it all straight, but not actually know what the words mean. I'm afraid I'm suspecting that here. I could completely be wrong about that. If I am, it will be easy to show it, by explaining some more.

The dollars in question here are mostly not literally American banknotes. They mostly really are paper, however. They're loans that Americans take out from foreigners. That's how Americans pay more for imported goods and services than they receive for their exports. They buy on credit. Those deficit dollars are paper: written promises by American companies to pay foreign companies in the future, with interest. Why do people in China need those American promises in order to "grow"?

[canpakes]

We maybe you can off the top of you head, in a paragraph or two give me the abstract of that.

No.

MAGA needs to cure itself of its need to ignore any understanding of complex issues and systems in favor of meaningless 4-word catchphrases.

[Gunnar]

I don't agree for even a second that Clinton and Bush are the main culprits,

NAFTA....

All I can do is suggest a little homework. My guess is you were not around when all this took place.

https://youtu.be/GJY_gD7YYjM?t=260

Bush after Clinton left, signed What Clinton was a champion of into law.

WTO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wo2wD4BQGs

Trade representative Michael Kantor signed us into the WTO under Clinton. Clinton authorized it. Also reading through this, the WTO is financed by contributions from it members, and the US as always gave the largest donations to an organization, even more than China. We did not withdraw from the WTO, but Trump suspended our contributions from what I read.

China into the WTO and favored nation status.

Jimmy Carter and maybe even Regan, and Bush the elder for sure, were behind this....in 1999 Bush the younger convinced Congress to pass a law, which he signed, to grant China favored nation status (PNTR). It was a republican led congress and senate....The Senate passed the law 83-15, the law passed congress at 237-197. 3/4 rep...1/4 Democrat. It is kind of cool in one way, and only one way... that Clinton wanted it bad, and his party did not, but the GOP did, and sided with a blue president. We won't see that kind of debate anytime soon in that we are so polarized and married to identity politics.

https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/d ... 08-1082956#_=_

https://www.baronpa.com/library/the-vot ... -the-world

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1999/11/15 ... 942642000/

Note that when we let China in the WTO, there was a 60 billion dollar trade deficit, in 2024 it was almost 300 billion.

He is just the useful idiot being used by the real culprits, namely the ultra-conservative and ultra-wealthy corporate leaders who have for decades been trying their darndest to fill the courts with conservative judges beholden to them alone,

You do understand that all these ultra wealthy corporate leaders that deal with China and other trade partners that are taking advantage us are going to take the biggest hit. Again do your homework.

I don't see that any of the above significantly diminishes the main point I was trying to make, and I don't think these ultra wealthy corporate leaders are trying to see beyond the current wealth and power they are accumulating from the status quo.

The main point I was talking about is the many decades long, systematic efforts of the wealthy, conservative elite, to fill the court system (especially the Supreme Court) with ultra conservative judges and justices willing and eager to be bought and owned by these avaricious corporate elites, as thoroughly and brilliantly documented and exposed by (for example) Sheldon Whitehouse, the Senator from Rhode Island: The Scheme
How the Right Wing Used Dark Money to Capture the Supreme Court

See also:

The Scheme: Sheldon's Court Capture Speeches

This is a series of lectures by Whitehouse comprehensively documenting the largely successful attempts by wealthy, conservative elites to fill the courts with corrupt judges amenable to serving their selfish interests, including the dumbing down of Americans and the politicians elected to serve them.

Here is the latest and most immediately relevant of these lectures: The Scheme 35:

April 1 | Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Courts Subcommittee, delivers the thirty-fifth in a series of speeches titled “The Scheme,” exposing the machinations by right-wing donor interests to capture the justice system to achieve what they cannot through the elected branches of government.

Whitehouse discusses the Department of Justice and FBI’s politically motivated, improper investigation into the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF). Whitehouse calls out the red flags indicating misuse of law enforcement in the GGRF investigation, and will set the record straight on President Donald Trump and his MAGA allies’ corrupt lies about the “weaponization” of the justice system.

How I wish Sheldon Whitehouse had run for President and won!

[Markk]

We maybe you can off the top of you head, in a paragraph or two give me the abstract of that.

No.

MAGA needs to cure itself of its need to ignore any understanding of complex issues and systems in favor of meaningless 4-word catchphrases.

And what is the democratic plan, for this complex issue. Maybe you can articulate this in your own words. Or maybe it would be best for you to first explain in your own words what these complex issues actually, and we can work of of that?

[canpakes]

No.

MAGA needs to cure itself of its need to ignore any understanding of complex issues and systems in favor of meaningless 4-word catchphrases.

And what is the democratic plan, for this complex issue. Maybe you can articulate this in your own words. Or maybe it would be best for you to first explain in your own words what these complex issues actually, and we can work of of that?

Markk,

You’ll want to ask Markk to point you to them. Markk said, earlier in this thread, that he saw and understood The Plans, which in some cases even included occasional targeted tariffs, which he seems to interpret as ineffective.

Left Markk know that you need to know about The Plans. : )

[Markk]

NAFTA....

All I can do is suggest a little homework. My guess is you were not around when all this took place.

https://youtu.be/GJY_gD7YYjM?t=260

Bush after Clinton left, signed What Clinton was a champion of into law.

WTO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wo2wD4BQGs

Trade representative Michael Kantor signed us into the WTO under Clinton. Clinton authorized it. Also reading through this, the WTO is financed by contributions from it members, and the US as always gave the largest donations to an organization, even more than China. We did not withdraw from the WTO, but Trump suspended our contributions from what I read.

China into the WTO and favored nation status.

Jimmy Carter and maybe even Regan, and Bush the elder for sure, were behind this....in 1999 Bush the younger convinced Congress to pass a law, which he signed, to grant China favored nation status (PNTR). It was a republican led congress and senate....The Senate passed the law 83-15, the law passed congress at 237-197. 3/4 rep...1/4 Democrat. It is kind of cool in one way, and only one way... that Clinton wanted it bad, and his party did not, but the GOP did, and sided with a blue president. We won't see that kind of debate anytime soon in that we are so polarized and married to identity politics.

https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/d ... 08-1082956#_=_

https://www.baronpa.com/library/the-vot ... -the-world

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1999/11/15 ... 942642000/

Note that when we let China in the WTO, there was a 60 billion dollar trade deficit, in 2024 it was almost 300 billion.

You do understand that all these ultra wealthy corporate leaders that deal with China and other trade partners that are taking advantage us are going to take the biggest hit. Again do your homework.

I don't see that any of the above significantly diminishes the main point I was trying to make, and I don't think these ultra wealthy corporate leaders are trying to see beyond the current wealth and power they are accumulating from the status quo.

The main point I was talking about is the many decades long, systematic efforts of the wealthy, conservative elite, to fill the court system (especially the Supreme Court) with ultra conservative judges and justices willing and eager to be bought and owned by these avaricious corporate elites, as thoroughly and brilliantly documented and exposed by (for example) Sheldon Whitehouse, the Senator from Rhode Island: The Scheme
How the Right Wing Used Dark Money to Capture the Supreme Court

See also:

The Scheme: Sheldon's Court Capture Speeches

This is a series of lectures by Whitehouse comprehensively documenting the largely successful attempts by wealthy, conservative elites to fill the courts with corrupt judges amenable to serving their selfish interests, including the dumbing down of Americans and the politicians elected to serve them.

Here is the latest and most immediately relevant of these lectures: The Scheme 35:

April 1 | Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Courts Subcommittee, delivers the thirty-fifth in a series of speeches titled “The Scheme,” exposing the machinations by right-wing donor interests to capture the justice system to achieve what they cannot through the elected branches of government.

Whitehouse discusses the Department of Justice and FBI’s politically motivated, improper investigation into the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF). Whitehouse calls out the red flags indicating misuse of law enforcement in the GGRF investigation, and will set the record straight on President Donald Trump and his MAGA allies’ corrupt lies about the “weaponization” of the justice system.

How I wish Sheldon Whitehouse had run for President and won!

So you don't want to address tariffs, which is the current discussion path?

Let me ask you this, do you own that book and have you read it? I have a lot of questions for you if you have read the book and can expound on it, but there is no use asking questions if you have not read the book.

[Markk]

And what is the democratic plan, for this complex issue. Maybe you can articulate this in your own words. Or maybe it would be best for you to first explain in your own words what these complex issues actually, and we can work of of that?

Markk,

You’ll want to ask Markk to point you to them. Markk said, earlier in this thread, that he saw and understood The Plans, which in some cases even included occasional targeted tariffs, which he seems to interpret as ineffective.

Left Markk know that you need to know about The Plans. : )

Cakes guess you have nothing to offer. I'll leave you with the plan....and if you like you can break it down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QmUVCswLis

[canpakes]

Cakes guess you have nothing to offer.

Not true. I can read those links out loud for you, for $100 a link.

You have to admit, that’s a reasonable cost.

You might want to sign up soon, though. After next week, I’m imposing a tariff of 25% on that cost.