How good is Nat Silver forecast?

[_Res Ipsa]

The thing about gerrymandering is that a big enough wave can swamp it entirely. Political gerrymandering means creating a few districts where the opposition has a huge percentage of votes and then creating many more districts where you have a smaller majority of votes. At some point, a wave can overrun all of those weaker districts.

[_EAllusion]

The thing about gerrymandering is that a big enough wave can swamp it entirely. Political gerrymandering means creating a few districts where the opposition has a huge percentage of votes and then creating many more districts where you have a smaller majority of votes. At some point, a wave can overrun all of those weaker districts.

This isn't a bad point to make, but given that Democrats are currently riding a wave that happens roughly once every 10-20 years and it's probably not enough for the levees to fall, I'd say that modern gerrymandering is worth this risk.

[_Res Ipsa]

The thing about gerrymandering is that a big enough wave can swamp it entirely. Political gerrymandering means creating a few districts where the opposition has a huge percentage of votes and then creating many more districts where you have a smaller majority of votes. At some point, a wave can overrun all of those weaker districts.

This isn't a bad point to make, but given that Democrats are currently riding a wave that happens roughly once every 10-20 years and it's probably not enough for the levees to fall, I'd say that modern gerrymandering is worth this risk.

Maybe. I'm sure there will be lots of number crunching after Tuesday.

The Supreme Court denied cert. today in a case where a State Supreme Court overturned political gerrymandering on on State Constitutional grounds. Not definitive, but may indicate a willingness to let state courts handle political gerrymandering.

[_aussieguy55]

Then you just appoint state judges who support you (conservative)

[_Res Ipsa]

Then you just appoint state judges who support you (conservative)

That varies from state to state. In my state (Washington), Supreme Court justices are elected, not appointed.

[_Brackite]

The latest from Nate Silver is that the Democrats now have an 85.4% chance of taking back the House. Link

Democrat Josh Harder now has a 77.6% chance of winning California's 10th Congressional district. Link