National Debt

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Gadianton
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Re: National Debt

Post by Gadianton »

Physics Guy wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2024 2:35 am
Everyone is free to risk all their money on anything, but it’s unwise to do that, so they don’t. Risky startups only get funded if people have a way to keep some money safe as a nestegg.

Leaving your money in a savings account is not a good alternative to buying T-bills. The interest rate is too low. The current average seems to be under 1%, while the current T-bill offers over 5%. A few banks do offer savings rates nearly that high, but only because they’re trying to compete with Treasury bills.

If the only safe investments have low interest like bank accounts, people need to save more principal, and spend less of their income. That might just sound thrifty and prudent, but if everyone does it, it’s called a depression.
I've avoided these kinds of examples as I think it's more important to first establish that debt can be positive in the restricted case where governments act like firms. There are murkier waters where governments who control their own currency don't go bankrupt like firms do, outspending a rival nation might be the best choice, spending on WWII could bring a country out of a great depression -- all the paradox of thrift perspectives.

I'm wiped out and maybe I don't understand your example, but the higher the interest you get, the more you'll save. Raising interest rates keeps people from spending, or at least it's supposed to, I don't think Jim is too thrilled with his results so far. When interest rates are 1%, people don't save more principle to get more effect, they consume more. It's almost counterintuitive in a way, like supply curves being upward sloping. Factoring in inflation is also important, if interest rates are high but inflation is higher, then saving still isn't very attractive.
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Re: National Debt

Post by Physics Guy »

People want security as well as growth. Even at zero interest, people will literally bury wealth in the ground to preserve it. They’ve been doing that for millennia. The “treasure buried in a field” was a trope in Jesus’s time.

The security that people want is for the unforeseen future. So if they can be sure that their nest egg will grow at some interest rate, and be bigger when they need it, they don’t have to save as much now. This is how almost everyone thinks about retirement savings. They want security for old age at the lowest possible cost to current lifestyle. Nobody wants to have to save too much. They save as much now as they must, in order to have enough then.

Once they have enough security, then people want to maximize growth with their riskable capital. This is the money that will get pulled out of a 1% investment, even if it’s safe, to go into a riskier investment that offers 10% gains. Treasury bills are never going to be good growth investments, but by providing decent interest with security they free up riskable capital that can go into other investments.

That’s my idea, anyway. I think that people are generally rational, even clever, about their own money, but that average expected net worth just isn’t exactly the thing they’re trying to optimize. Your last dollar is worth a lot more than your millionth dollar.
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Re: National Debt

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Short-term treasuries are generally taken to approximate the risk-free rate, whether that's .5% or 15%. Each individual's investment psychology is going to be a little different but for rationality to prevail in aggregate, I think we need to assume that more money is getting saved when saving at 15% represents the same risk as saving at 1%. If it is true or ever becomes true that people are calling BS on attractive short-term treasury rates, then clearly, an argument is on the table that such rates no longer represent the risk-free rate.

The problem of thrift is easiest to see in the case of deflation, the holy grail of the right-wing senator who faces spending .5% more of their disposable income on meat at the grocery store. If prices are falling fast, there is an incentive to hoard. Why should I spend my 200$ on that gameboy now when next month, it's going to be 175? The price spiral becomes a self-reinforcing reality. In contrast, if money is slowly losing value at small rate, then get the gameboy now because it will be 205$ next month. That's why the Fed believes that keeping a nice low level of inflation over time keeps people scrambling and consuming.

I have to get Shades over the hump of the non-controversial reasons to go into debt in order to get to the murkier waters of Keynesian economics that makes arguments like, the government should go into debt and hire a million people to go out and dig holes, and then refill them again. I like it when it's put this way better than saying the government should go out and build bridges. The idea of fiscal stimulus is that the government can kick-start an economy in depression where everyone is hoarding. It doesn't matter if it's doing anything useful with the money, it just needs to prime the pump.

The problem with all of the above is that it implies the world is fundamentally irrational. Why should there be price spirals? Why is it any more reasonable to believe prices will continue to drop than maybe it's hitting the bottom and time to start buying? Why doesn't the market self-correct? Models can be argued, but I think evidence is on the side of irrationality. I mean, point me to the pure market economy that smoked China over the last 20 years.
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Re: National Debt

Post by Analytics »

From my perspective, the big thing to keep in mind is the difference between real assets and financial assets. Real assets are tangible things with intrinsic value and include things like land, houses, factories, inventory, farms, herds of cattle, mines, malls, office buildings, computer systems, infrastructure, etc.

In contrast, financial assets don’t have any intrinsic value. There only value is an ownership claim on real assets or on other financial assets. Examples of financial assets include stocks, bonds, notes, liens, mortgages, and money. As a routine part of the economic system rolling forward, these financial assets are created and destroyed. And what’s fascinating about financial assets is that in aggregate, for every dollar of financial assets somebody has on their balance sheet, somewhere out there is another dollar that is a liability on somebody else’s balance sheet (for Physics Guy: it's like the theory that for every particle there is a corresponding anti-particle, and that these pairs of particles can be created and destroyed in pairs).

Applying this understanding to the national debt, here are a few implications:

The U.S. government has a liability of $35 trillion, but a giant constellation of other entities have offsetting assets of $35 trillion. But in aggregate, this doesn’t affect the global economy’s wealth.

In real terms, what really matters is that the economy produces the goods and services that everybody needs, that it does so in an efficient way, and that what is produced is distributed in a way that's fair. To the extent the national debt kills jobs, makes production inefficient, or causes the distribution of goods and services to be unfair, it is a problem. But if it doesn’t do those things, it really doesn’t matter.

Personally, I worry about shifting demographics more than the national debt.
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Re: National Debt

Post by Physics Guy »

My eyes were opened once when I took out a bank loan to buy a used car. The bank gave me the loan and my account balance went up suddenly. The extra money was real enough that I bought my car with it, and the seller bought things with the money I gave them, and so on. There was fresh money out there in the economy circulating around just as if I had dug up a lump of gold.

What opened my eyes was realizing that the bank manager had approved my loan and given me real money without first going around to their other depositors and asking them each to contribute a few hundred bucks toward my loan. Nobody lost the money I gained, the way they would have had to lose it, by giving it to me, if I had borrowed the money from friends.

The money did come from those other depositors, though. Banks aren’t just rich people lending out their own money. Banks lend out their depositors’ money. That’s what banks do to make profit. If a bank teller takes deposited banknotes and instead of putting them in the vault uses them to run their own loan sharking business on the side, hoping that their clients pay them back with interest before the depositors come to withdraw the cash, that’s embezzlement. If the bank itself does the same, it’s just banking.

It all balanced on paper. When my account balance went up, I also received a second account, for the loan, which was negative. The bank’s holdings went down, and its receivables went up. Along with all those numbers in databases, though, an actual car did change hands. This weird process is the foundation of modern economies.
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Re: National Debt

Post by Analytics »

Interestingly, there is one exception to the rule that "Banks lend out their depositors’ money.” That exception is the Federal Reserve. When the Federal Reserve lends out money, they aren’t lending money that somebody else deposited. Rather, they are spawning the existence of money out of nothing. When the Federal Reserve lends money to a bank, the money comes into existence. When the banks pay the money back to the Federal Reserve, the money ceases to exist.

The only reason money has any value is because we all collectively believe it has value. I have a few dollars in my personal nest egg. I’m hopeful the number of those dollars will grow with interest and that when I retire, an economy will exist where people will be willing to trade real-world useful goods and services for those dollars. But if people stop believing in the value of money, money becomes worthless.

In the inimitable words of Yuval Noah Harari:
Any large-scale human cooperation – whether a modern state, a medieval church, an ancient city or an archaic tribe – is rooted in common myths that exist only in people’s collective imagination. Churches are rooted in common religious myths. Two Catholics who have never met can nevertheless go together on crusade or pool funds to build a hospital because they both believe that God was incarnated in human flesh and allowed Himself to be crucified to redeem our sins. States are rooted in common national myths. Two Serbs who have never met might risk their lives to save one another because both believe in the existence of the Serbian nation, the Serbian homeland and the Serbian flag. Judicial systems are rooted in common legal myths. Two lawyers who have never met can nevertheless combine efforts to defend a complete stranger because they both believe in the existence of laws, justice, human rights – and the money paid out in fees. Yet none of these things exists outside the stories that people invent and tell one another.

There are no gods in the universe, no nations, no money, no human rights, no laws, and no justice outside the common imagination of human beings.

People easily acknowledge that ‘primitive tribes’ cement their social order by believing in ghosts and spirits, and gathering each full moon to dance together around the campfire. What we fail to appreciate is that our modern institutions function on exactly the same basis. Take for example the world of business corporations. Modern businesspeople and lawyers are, in fact, powerful sorcerers. The principal difference between them and tribal shamans is that modern lawyers tell far stranger tales.
Harari, Yuval Noah. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (pp. 28-29). HarperCollins. Kindle Edition.

Tying these ideas to the national debt, there are people and corporations that have trillions of dollars in imaginary assets that exactly balance out the trillions of dollars of imaginary liabilities that the U.S. government holds. As long as they are generally content to have trillions of dollars in government bonds, or trillions of dollars in invented currency that the Federal Reserve could create with the stroke of a pen, or trillions of dollars of any other imaginary asset, then the system will be okay. But if the entities with the imaginary assets wanted to trade them in for real-world assets, we would have a problem.

That is why the Social Security Trust Fund is irrelevant. As a society, we don’t need a trust fund full of imaginary assets that can be distributed to people when they retire. Rather, we need an infrastructure, physical materials, and a labor force that is willing and able to produce the goods and services retirees will need to survive. The fundamental problem is having a society that lives in balance with the environment, continuously invests wisely in infrastructure, and has a healthy workforce that is in balance with people who are too young or too old to participate in the workforce.

Those are the real issues.
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Re: National Debt

Post by Morley »

Analytics wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2024 3:18 pm
Interestingly, there is one exception to the rule that "Banks lend out their depositors’ money.” That exception is the Federal Reserve. When the Federal Reserve lends out money, they aren’t lending money that somebody else deposited. Rather, they are spawning the existence of money out of nothing. When the Federal Reserve lends money to a bank, the money comes into existence. When the banks pay the money back to the Federal Reserve, the money ceases to exist.

The only reason money has any value is because we all collectively believe it has value. I have a few dollars in my personal nest egg. I’m hopeful the number of those dollars will grow with interest and that when I retire, an economy will exist where people will be willing to trade real-world useful goods and services for those dollars. But if people stop believing in the value of money, money becomes worthless.

In the inimitable words of Yuval Noah Harari:
Any large-scale human cooperation – whether a modern state, a medieval church, an ancient city or an archaic tribe – is rooted in common myths that exist only in people’s collective imagination. Churches are rooted in common religious myths. Two Catholics who have never met can nevertheless go together on crusade or pool funds to build a hospital because they both believe that God was incarnated in human flesh and allowed Himself to be crucified to redeem our sins. States are rooted in common national myths. Two Serbs who have never met might risk their lives to save one another because both believe in the existence of the Serbian nation, the Serbian homeland and the Serbian flag. Judicial systems are rooted in common legal myths. Two lawyers who have never met can nevertheless combine efforts to defend a complete stranger because they both believe in the existence of laws, justice, human rights – and the money paid out in fees. Yet none of these things exists outside the stories that people invent and tell one another.

There are no gods in the universe, no nations, no money, no human rights, no laws, and no justice outside the common imagination of human beings.

People easily acknowledge that ‘primitive tribes’ cement their social order by believing in ghosts and spirits, and gathering each full moon to dance together around the campfire. What we fail to appreciate is that our modern institutions function on exactly the same basis. Take for example the world of business corporations. Modern businesspeople and lawyers are, in fact, powerful sorcerers. The principal difference between them and tribal shamans is that modern lawyers tell far stranger tales.
Harari, Yuval Noah. Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (pp. 28-29). HarperCollins. Kindle Edition.

Tying these ideas to the national debt, there are people and corporations that have trillions of dollars in imaginary assets that exactly balance out the trillions of dollars of imaginary liabilities that the U.S. government holds. As long as they are generally content to have trillions of dollars in government bonds, or trillions of dollars in invented currency that the Federal Reserve could create with the stroke of a pen, or trillions of dollars of any other imaginary asset, then the system will be okay. But if the entities with the imaginary assets wanted to trade them in for real-world assets, we would have a problem.

That is why the Social Security Trust Fund is irrelevant. As a society, we don’t need a trust fund full of imaginary assets that can be distributed to people when they retire. Rather, we need an infrastructure, physical materials, and a labor force that is willing and able to produce the goods and services retirees will need to survive. The fundamental problem is having a society that lives in balance with the environment, continuously invests wisely in infrastructure, and has a healthy workforce that is in balance with people who are too young or too old to participate in the workforce.

Those are the real issues.

Well said. Thank you for taking the time to put this together.
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Re: National Debt

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and has a healthy workforce that is in balance with people who are too young or too old to participate in the workforce.
https://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/#:~ ... government.

Good luck with that.
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Re: National Debt

Post by Analytics »

ajax18 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:32 pm
and has a healthy workforce that is in balance with people who are too young or too old to participate in the workforce.
https://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/#:~ ... government.

Good luck with that.
Thank you for providing an excellent article on this topic; I found the article both credible and insightful.

I thought this quote was insightful.
But after I got interested in disability, I followed up with some of the guys to see what happened to them after the mill closed. One of them, Scott Birdsall, went to lots of meetings where he learned about retraining programs and educational opportunities. At one meeting, he says, a staff member pulled him aside.

"Scotty, I'm gonna be honest with you," the guy told him. "There's nobody gonna hire you … We're just hiding you guys." The staff member's advice to Scott was blunt: "Just suck all the benefits you can out of the system until everything is gone, and then you're on your own."

Scott, who was 56 years old at the time, says it was the most real thing anyone had said to him in a while.

There used to be a lot of jobs that you could do with just a high school degree, and that paid enough to be considered middle class. I knew, of course, that those have been disappearing for decades. What surprised me was what has been happening to many of the people who lost those jobs: They've been going on disability.

Scott's dad had a heart attack and went back to work in the mill. If there'd been a mill for Scott to go back to work in, he says, he'd have done that too. But there wasn't a mill, so he went on disability. It wasn't just Scott. I talked to a bunch of mill guys who took this path -- one who shattered the bones in his ankle and leg, one with diabetes, another with a heart attack. When the mill shut down, they all went on disability.
I wonder how many of these mill guys who are on disability are ardent Trump supporters.
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Re: National Debt

Post by Dr Exiled »

Analytics wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2024 10:02 pm
ajax18 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:32 pm


https://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/#:~ ... government.

Good luck with that.
Thank you for providing an excellent article on this topic; I found the article both credible and insightful.

I thought this quote was insightful.
But after I got interested in disability, I followed up with some of the guys to see what happened to them after the mill closed. One of them, Scott Birdsall, went to lots of meetings where he learned about retraining programs and educational opportunities. At one meeting, he says, a staff member pulled him aside.

"Scotty, I'm gonna be honest with you," the guy told him. "There's nobody gonna hire you … We're just hiding you guys." The staff member's advice to Scott was blunt: "Just suck all the benefits you can out of the system until everything is gone, and then you're on your own."

Scott, who was 56 years old at the time, says it was the most real thing anyone had said to him in a while.

There used to be a lot of jobs that you could do with just a high school degree, and that paid enough to be considered middle class. I knew, of course, that those have been disappearing for decades. What surprised me was what has been happening to many of the people who lost those jobs: They've been going on disability.

Scott's dad had a heart attack and went back to work in the mill. If there'd been a mill for Scott to go back to work in, he says, he'd have done that too. But there wasn't a mill, so he went on disability. It wasn't just Scott. I talked to a bunch of mill guys who took this path -- one who shattered the bones in his ankle and leg, one with diabetes, another with a heart attack. When the mill shut down, they all went on disability.
I wonder how many of these mill guys who are on disability are ardent Trump supporters.
I bet there are a bunch of these guys that are ardent Trump supporters. He is at least telling them what they want to hear, as Michael Moore says here:

https://archive.org/details/MichaelMoor ... teForTrump

Moore has since changed his tune, but what he said at the time is how these people probably still feel. They like that someone is flipping off the people who shipped their jobs overseas.

Here is how the democrats have acted since Clinton and his third way. Their continued sell out to the donor class drives these former mill workers to Trump and the Tea Party populists:

https://jacobin.com/2022/08/democrats-s ... ate-equity
Myth is misused by the powerful to subjugate the masses all too often.
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