What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

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_Jersey Girl
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote: Trump has never had to operate in a world where he can't just walk away after screwing someone over and deal with a fresh new face the next day. In this job, you screw over your own government and, whoops, they're still here tomorrow, and will be the next day and every day for the rest of your term.

This guy is screwed. Hard. This was a huge miscalculation on his part.

- Doc


And they will be there long after you're gone. Gov't workers hate the hell out of pay freezes and RIF's. (Do they still have RIF's and will that be the next move?).

In any case, if I thought he had a brain I'd almost bet he was trying to get impeached just to get out of the game and get back to his old life which he'll never have again. Then again, he'd be foolish to do so with the Mueller investigation breathing down his neck with possible charges to follow.

All I do know is that it is near agony to witness what has happened in the past few weeks to current. As if it wasn't already stressful and chaotic to begin with.
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

Yeah, all those people you're paying to do a job? Good luck getting them to do their job. I get that the GOP is trying to destroy the government and then point to it to say, "See? It doesn't work!", but this gambit is just dumb beyond all reasoning. Even his own side can see what he's doing doesn't work. 2020 isn't going to go well for the GOP if they keep this up. But, hey, they get to appoint some judges!

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Gunnar »

I would not be a bit surprised if even a substantial number of those he successfully appointed as judges eventually turn against him -- more likely sooner than later. I am fairly confident that even a majority of successful conservative judges (even Trump appointed ones) have some sense of ethics and belief in the importance of truth and the rule of law -- despite the deplorable example set by Trump and so many of his associates.
Last edited by Guest on Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
No precept or claim is more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.

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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Gunnar wrote:I would not be a bit surprised if even a substantial number of those he successfully appointed as judges eventually turn against him -- more likely sooner than later. I am fairly confident that even a majority of successful conservative judges (even Trump appointed ones) have some sense of ethics and belief in the importance of truth and the rule of law -- despite the deplorable example set by Trump and so many of his associates.


Aside: I remember at this time 19 years ago, the biggest thing on our mind was Y2K. Look where we are now. :-)
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Gunnar »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Gunnar wrote:I would not be a bit surprised if even a substantial number of those he successfully appointed as judges eventually turn against him -- more likely sooner than later. I am fairly confident that even a majority of successful conservative judges (even Trump appointed ones) have some sense of ethics and belief in the importance of truth and the rule of law -- despite the deplorable example set by Trump and so many of his associates.


Aside: I remember at this time 19 years ago, the biggest thing on our mind was Y2K. Look where we are now. :-)

I know this is off topic, but many people underestimate the importance of Y2K. Few people realize how many thousands and even millions of man hours were devoted by hard-working computer programmers to find and modify or eliminate problematic computer code that was not compatible with dates beyond the year 2000, or how many potentially serious problems would have been caused by failure to so. So successful was this massive effort that we managed to pass into the new century with hardly a ripple, causing many who were not computer literate to mistakenly conclude that it was never a real problem to begin with. The nations most potentially at risk were those who depended the most on computer technology.

Y2K bug

The Y2K bug was a computer flaw, or bug, that may have caused problems when dealing with dates beyond December 31, 1999. The flaw, faced by computer programmers and users all over the world on January 1, 2000, is also known as the "millennium bug." (The letter K, which stands for kilo (a unit of 1000), is commonly used to represent the number 1,000. So, Y2K stands for Year 2000.) Many skeptics believe it was barely a problem at all.

When complicated computer programs were being written during the 1960s through the 1980s, computer engineers used a two-digit code for the year. The "19" was left out. Instead of a date reading 1970, it read 70. Engineers shortened the date because data storage in computers was costly and took up a lot of space.

As the year 2000 approached, computer programmers realized that computers might not interpret 00 as 2000, but as 1900. Activities that were programmed on a daily or yearly basis would be damaged or flawed. As December 31, 1999, turned into January 1, 2000, computers might interpret December 31, 1999, turning into January 1, 1900.

Banks, which calculate interest rates on a daily basis, faced real problems. Interest rates are the amount of money a lender, such as a bank, charges a customer, such as an individual or business, for a loan. Instead of the rate of interest for one day, the computer would calculate a rate of interest for minus almost 100 years!

Centers of technology, such as power plants, were also threatened by the Y2K bug. Power plants depend on routine computer maintenance for safety checks, such as water pressure or radiation levels. Not having the correct date would throw off these calculations and possibly put nearby residents at risk.

Transportation also depends on the correct time and date. Airlines in particular were put at risk, as computers with records of all scheduled flights would be threatened after all, there were very few airline flights in 1900.

Y2K was both a software and hardware problem. Software refers to the electronic programs used to tell the computer what to do. Hardware is the machinery of the computer itself. Software and hardware companies raced to fix the bug and provided "Y2K compliant" programs to help. The simplest solution was the best: The date was simply expanded to a four-digit number. Governments, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, worked to address the problem.

In the end, there were very few problems. A nuclear energy facility in Ishikawa, Japan, had some of its radiation equipment fail, but backup facilities ensured there was no threat to the public. The U.S. detected missile launches in Russia and attributed that to the Y2K bug. But the missile launches were planned ahead of time as part of Russias conflict in its republic of Chechnya. There was no computer malfunction.

Countries such as Italy, Russia, and South Korea had done little to prepare for Y2K. They had no more technological problems than those countries, like the U.S., that spent millions of dollars to combat the problem.

Due to the lack of results, many people dismissed the Y2K bug as a hoax or an end-of-the-world cult.

Maybe the consequences of doing nothing would not have been as bad as feared, but you can't very well argue with the sentiment "Better safe than sorry." One of the typical potential problems I read about was exposed by a computer simulation in a sewage plant in Hawaii that proved that not correcting their operating software would have caused an important control valve to open at an inappropriate time, resulting in a massive sewage spill when the calendar changed to the year 2000.

One older computer I had at the time simply refused to work properly, after the beginning of 2000, until I manually reset its internal calendar back to before 2000.
No precept or claim is more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.

“If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you.”
― Harlan Ellison
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _subgenius »

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _EAllusion »

Gunnar wrote:I would not be a bit surprised if even a substantial number of those he successfully appointed as judges eventually turn against him -- more likely sooner than later. I am fairly confident that even a majority of successful conservative judges (even Trump appointed ones) have some sense of ethics and belief in the importance of truth and the rule of law -- despite the deplorable example set by Trump and so many of his associates.


Trump has been appointing a far, far right wish list that is similar in, um, ethical outlook as the current Republican Congress is. He'll lose some court cases, but he's not going to face a judicial revolt from his appointees. Far more likely is that mainstream Democratic agenda is going to be increasingly found unconstitutional like you saw in the lower court Obamacare ruling.
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Gunnar »

EAllusion wrote:Trump has been appointing a far, far right wish list that is similar in, um, ethical outlook as the current Republican Congress is. He'll lose some court cases, but he's not going to face a judicial revolt from his appointees. Far more likely is that mainstream Democratic agenda is going to be increasingly found unconstitutional like you saw in the lower court Obamacare ruling.

Yes, I realize that, but even some of his appointees must realize and be dismayed by how corrupt and dishonest he is, and that he can't be given carte blanche to get away Scott free with all of the egregious violations of the U.S. Constitution he is probably already guilty or will attempt to commit in the future. Besides that, to be even marginally qualified to sit on federal courts they must have been through law school, and thus be far better educated than Trump is. There is no way they can fail to realize how willfully ignorant and abysmally stupid Trump is -- especially about the Constitution and the rule of law.

The situation is grim and will undoubtedly will become grimmer still before it begins to improve, but there have to be lines that even a majority Trump's appointees to the courts will not let him get away with crossing. Thus I still hold out a glimmer of hope that even Trump's appointees to the courts will try to keep him at least somewhat in check.
No precept or claim is more likely to be false than one that can only be supported by invoking the claim of Divine authority for it--no matter who or what claims such authority.

“If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you.”
― Harlan Ellison
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:I think President Trump being a complete piece of worthless trash will start to dawn on more and more of his base. For example, about 380,000 federal employees are on furlough and 420,000 are working without pay as the new year approaches. Combine that with their pay freeze and boy are you going to start seeing some crap go down.


Here's an example. TSA staff calling in sick.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/first ... spartanntp
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

The House Democrats will be investigating:

► The President's financial ties to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

They'll also be:

► Hiring money laundering experts to investigate President Trump.

► Investigating members of President Trump's administration including Secretary of Education Betsy Devos and Ivanka Trump's use of personal email for government business.

► Investigating Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, Russian interference, Acting AG Whitaker, Trump's role in the illegal payments of hush money during the election, emoluments clause of the Constitution violations by President Trump*, among a litany of other issues.

► Trump’s tax returns.

This is in addition to various states' AG's investigating Trump for a host of crimes which will be fun reading in the upcoming months.

- Doc

* This one is worth a whole 'nother post by itself.
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
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