Biden needs to step aside

[Kishkumen]

If there is one thing we can say about the Democratic Party’s process for selecting a candidate, it is that it has not been especially democratic in nature. Now you have many of the people you would expect to place their wisdom above the voters doing exactly that and hoping to overturn the results of the process the party oversaw in the first place. All
that is being achieved is the creation of bigger divides between average people and the liberal elites. It is damaging. They keep putting their thumb on the scale in different ways, at the risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Had they nominated Bernie back in 2015, we would not be here, but, of course, they knew better when they called his fans racist and sexist for supporting the Jewish dude from Vermont.

[Xenophon]

If there is one thing we can say about the Democratic Party’s process for selecting a candidate, it is that it has not been especially democratic in nature. Now you have many of the people you would expect to place their wisdom above the voters doing exactly that and hoping to overturn the results of the process the party oversaw in the first place. All that is being achieved is the creation of bigger divides between average people and the liberal elites. It is damaging. They keep putting their thumb on the scale in different ways, at the risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Had they nominated Bernie back in 2015, we would not be here, but, of course, they knew better when they called his fans racist and sexist for supporting the Jewish dude from Vermont.

One interesting piece to me is in both Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders backing Biden. Given the usual party in-fighting it wouldn't have surprised me to see them push for a different candidate. Cynics will probably just say it is because they think they can control Biden but my take is that they see an administration they can work within while also given them a decent chance at retaining the White House.

[Xenophon]

There will be much discussion about the Ipso poll released today that has some 67% of those polled thinking that Biden should step aside but I think the headlines are going to miss some very critical points. Link to the poll and background data.

First, 50% said the exact same thing about Trump. Second, despite those feelings, the same poll has the candidates in a dead tie. Last (and probably most important to me), is that Biden out performs on the questions of:

• He is honest and trustworthy - 39 to 22 for Biden
• He represents your personal values - 36 to 31 for Biden
• He understands the problems of people like you - 34 to 32 for Biden

I'm still stuck on the original idea that if Democrats can keep focused on actual policy positions and plans. Speak to the work they are actually doing and keep the discussion centered on the politics of the administration they will have the strongest chance come November.

Another part of the poll that tickles me a bit is that only 27% watched/listened/read the whole thing and that 31% say they've seen no news or commentary about it since the debate happened.

[Binger]

There will be much discussion about the Ipso poll released today that has some 67% of those polled thinking that Biden should step aside but I think the headlines are going to miss some very critical points. Link to the poll and background data.

First, 50% said the exact same thing about Trump. Second, despite those feelings, the same poll has the candidates in a dead tie. Last (and probably most important to me), is that Biden out performs on the questions of:

• He is honest and trustworthy - 39 to 22 for Biden
• He represents your personal values - 36 to 31 for Biden
• He understands the problems of people like you - 34 to 32 for Biden

I'm still stuck on the original idea that if Democrats can keep focused on actual policy positions and plans. Speak to the work they are actually doing and keep the discussion centered on the politics of the administration they will have the strongest chance come November.

Another part of the poll that tickles me a bit is that only 27% watched/listened/read the whole thing and that 31% say they've seen no news or commentary about it since the debate happened.

None of this matters. We all know that that. It is all click-bait drama and media hype. The democrats control the ballot mailouts in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Milwaukee. They control the collection of so-called mail in ballots and dropboxes. They control the so-called counting of ballots in those four cities. There is zero chance that they are going to count fewer ballots for Biden/Democrat Replacement than for Trump. Zero. I don't think anyone believes that Trump has a shot of getting the votes in those cities. In light of that, I think that those three states will push to keep Biden on the ballot and just blame the results late collection of superdy duperdy legit ballts and on garbage polls that say 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump, 2025, Trump. Any suggestion that Trump is leading in the states that have these three cities is just drama to keep folks consuming the hype and clicking.

Then... there is the money. Biden has a lot of money that can't be transferred willy nilly. He ain't going anywhere without one hell of a parachute.

[Kishkumen]

One interesting piece to me is in both Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders backing Biden. Given the usual party in-fighting it wouldn't have surprised me to see them push for a different candidate. Cynics will probably just say it is because they think they can control Biden but my take is that they see an administration they can work within while also given them a decent chance at retaining the White House.

They understand that a Trump presidency is potentially catastrophic.

[Binger]

One interesting piece to me is in both Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders backing Biden. Given the usual party in-fighting it wouldn't have surprised me to see them push for a different candidate. Cynics will probably just say it is because they think they can control Biden but my take is that they see an administration they can work within while also given them a decent chance at retaining the White House.

This has everything to do with being in a safe seat. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has no control over Biden. She is a thorn in his bummy bum bum. As soon as the polls come out that the backroom and elite replacement for Biden is a better option, and the donors move in, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders will go along to get along.

[Res Ipsa]

Several reasons.

Because of knowing where I am (please don't imagine things by that more than what I mean it to suggest - that is, that I not comfortable with political confrontation, name calling, personal insults, etc - and I engage people largely determined by what I believe to be interested parties that have good intentions and are discussing in good faith) I will offer a few reasons and keep in brief.

Like millions of my fellow Americans, for the last several decades, I get my butt out of bed and go to work to provide for my family. I keep hearing how great things are. I wonder if this message is coming from people on planet earth or if it's coming from some pretend planet in space where messaging, not reality, is the most important thing.. In 2019, pre-covid, I was financially fine. My small business was fine, The hundreds of people I did business with were all fine. I believe all of this was a result of policies. Now, business is very tough - very, very tough - everything is expensive - Gas, electricity, insurance, vehicles, food, wood, supplies, paper towels - Literally everything is much more expensive. These same hundreds of people that I do business with are all saying the exact same thing as me.- I am not really interested in getting into a debate about inflation and/or the many reason that this is the case. For whatever reason, a nuclear bomb has went of on the middle class in this country and that is very concerning to me. I can't help but to think that the war of fossil fuels and governmental regulations has had a very negative impact on this.

Ceeboo, what you've done here is called people who base their opinions on actual data about the economy as "coming from some pretend planet in space," while refusing to discuss the actual data. Then, after refusing to discuss the causes of inflation, you go on say that "you can't help but think" that a "war on fossil fuels" and "government regulations" had a very negative impact on inflation.

The worldwide spike of inflation had several causes which are pretty-well understood, none of which are Joe Biden. And, if you think inflation is still a major problem in the U.S., then you should be very concerned about two significant parts of Trump's agenda: making the highly inflationary tax cuts from his first term, which had to include a sunset provision because they increased the deficit so much, and tariffs, which ordinary Americans will pay in higher prices.

Trump said at his rally yesterday that the price of bacon had quadrupled during Biden's presidency and that "We don't eat bacon anymore." Both statements are false. The nominal rise in the price of bacon is 14%. But, when you take into account the fact that inflation has affected both wages and prices, bacon is more affordable today than it was when Trump left office. Right here. On planet earth. https://jabberwocking.com/yes-donald-tr ... out-bacon/

You see, your description of the impact of inflation is woefully incomplete. All those poor business who have to pay more for everything also raised their prices. And wage inflation has matched or exceeded price inflation. So, the impact on the average American is nowhere as dramatic as it is when one looks only at prices. Of course, these are averages, which means there are winners and losers.

Economists have known for decades that there can be a wide divergence between how the economy is actually performing and people's perceptions of how it is doing. I saw an interesting paper a bit ago that shows how Americans' perceptions of the economy change when the party holding the presidency changes. The change happens to have been much greater among self-described republicans in recent elections -- their perceptions change almost overnight when the presidency changes hands -- from great to horrible or horrible to great.

This is America -- everyone gets their own opinion. But, on a subject as complex as the economy, closing one's eyes to the actual data leads to, at best, uninformed opinions and, at worst, wildly wrong opinions.

[Dwight]

https://www.threads.net/@meidastouch/post/C9SdoUjxsmu#

Granted it is edited with a bias for Biden, but a video from the same day, speeches by both candidates. I've seen Trump fans "praising" Biden for being able to read his teleprompter, but Trump had them too, and it seems he can't even do that.

[canpakes]

And, if you think inflation is still a major problem in the U.S., then you should be very concerned about two significant parts of Trump's agenda: making the highly inflationary tax cuts from his first term, which had to include a sunset provision because they increased the deficit so much, and tariffs, which ordinary Americans will pay in higher prices.

Ceebs, pay close attention to this part of Res’s reply.

A person would need to be quite thoroughly detached from reality to have watched suppliers increase costs - and consumers subsequently pay those increases - during the recent round of inflation, but then believe that those same suppliers will just swallow a 10% additional cost in the form of a tariff applied via Trump Administration policy.

Neither Trump nor Biden created worldwide post-pandemic inflation, but your current favorite candidate is promising you to your face to raise prices, so that he can essentially tax you an additional 10% on most of your shopping list items.

And for what?

[Morley]

Two weeks ago, when I started this thread, Joe Biden had just barely closed out the first of 2024's presidential debates with Donald Trump. That evening, I posted that Biden should drop out of the race because of his poor performance. I didn't (and don't) think that he could win the election. Even though I said that, I also expressed my opinion that I didn't think that there was a chance in hell that Biden would leave--and that, at least as far as the presidential election went, the party would probably be doomed.

I've changed my mind on this point. Given the mounting public pressure, I don't see how Biden can continue. I'm going to predict that sometime before the mid-August Democratic Convention, Biden will find a way to leave.

If this happens, the sooner the better. The cleaner the cleaner. The more transparent the better.

As of right now, I'd take that bet. Barring the kind of major, catastrophic health event the good Dr. Steuss has alluded to I just don't see him stepping away. Post debate polling hasn't showing it getting any worse than the initial slide, which is actually pretty impressive given the sheer amount of negative press he is taking over it. There are indications that the Democrats shift towards tying Trump to Project 2025 is gaining ground, along with the opening up of further Epstein documents that don't play well for Trump. Given that and the still relatively long time period before the actual Election I truly believe they think they can get across the finish line.

Again, this isn't saying yours (and lots of folks) concerns about him aren't valid or that a potential change might actually work, just that the campaign is trying to get out there "you're stuck with us now move on" and I don't see anything that makes me think that will change unless their hand is truly forced.

Yeah, I agree that things have calmed down for Biden and it looks like the party has fallen inline behind him. I still think he's going to be in trouble. I'm guessing that, lurking under the relatively calm surface, there are many who are getting their houses in order as they're waiting to spring. Biden's problem is that he can't have even one more episode that gives supporters reason to doubt--and I think that it's inevitable that he will have, at the least, that one more episode.

I'm afraid that the Epstein line of inquiry is going to fizzle. Preliminary glances at the papers seem to show that Trump doesn't appear as prominently as at first might have been suggested. I hope the look into Project 25 does something--but, again, I have my doubts. The subject may be too policy-oriented for voters to care about. Let's face it, if voters still think that the president controls the economy (which many of them do), they're not going to get into the weeds about a Project 2025, a plan that Trump denies ever hearing about.

Anyway, I hope that I'm wrong and you're right--and that a fair wind is going to blow in Biden's direction. Meanwhile, I'll continue to hope for the best--in whatever form that takes.