Gobal Warming: nonsense?

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_Coggins7
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Post by _Coggins7 »

Fred Singer--not a climate scientist


Then perhaps you could explain how he came by his positions as Professor at professor emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia, founding Dean of the School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences, University of Miami (1964-67); first Director of the National Weather Satellite Service (1962-64); and Director of the Center for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Maryland (1953-62), and vice chairman of the National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmospheres?

Oh, and he holds a Ph.D in physics from Princeton.

Sherwood Idos is a geographer? His bio states "Bachelor of Physics, Master of Science, and Doctor of Philosophy degrees are all from the University of Minnesota". Reading comprehension problems Tarski?


Robert C. Balling does have his Ph.D in geography. He also has some other degrees. How do you explain his being director of the Laboratory of climate sciences at Arizona State University or publishing articles in professional journals such as this http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?req ... 27&issue=5?

Indeed, for being unqualified, a rather large quantity of his professional publishing history is in atmospheric science. Why do you think that is Tarski?

http://www.siue.edu/~mhildeb/research.html

http://geography.asu.edu/balling/

Roger Peilke?

B.A., Mathematics, Towson State College, 1968 M.S., Ph.D., Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, 1969, 1973. Tarski couldn't impugn his credentials so he impugns his institution at which he works, which is at the pathetic and dubious University of Colorado and CIRES. Here is CERES own description of itself

http://cires.colorado.edu/about/ and I'll let both the institutions he works for speak for themselves.

Peike does, indeed, believe there is a human footprint. Thousands of other climate and earth scientists would disagree with him however, on various points (and, really, there is no direct empirical evidence to support that kind of claim. Outside of the GCMs, the evidence for human caused climate change is very circumstantial, even though nobody claims that humans have had no influence whatever). But Peilke believes in realistic mitigation and long term adaptation, not the hubris driven socialist cultural transformatin supported by the Left, who are AGW.s primary purveyors.

For a good intro into Peike's view of some of the issues discussed here, see

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin ... 007.20.pdf

Here's what Peilke, in his usual middle of the road manner, thinks of the AGW advocacy group, Realclimate:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prome ... ealcl.html

Gavin Scmidt, the head of the pro-AGW advocacy blog Realclimate, is not himself an empirical climate scientist, but a climate modeler who, like many other such applied scientists, creates computer simulations that produce just the results he wants them to produce, including catastrophic scenarios that have no basis in present empirical evidence. Here's his bio:

He received a BA (Hons) in Mathematics from Oxford University, a PhD in Applied Mathematics from University College London and was a NOAA Postdoctoral Fellow in Climate and Global Change Research.


You, see, Mr. Schmidt works strictly in the abstract, for the very government dependent and funded agency that started this hysteria in the first place, as a climate modeler-the only real source for evidence of AGW that has ever existed. He also contributes to the Realclimate blog, a blog originally started to defend Michael Mann and his discredited "hockey stick" graph that had conveniently erased both the empirically well documented Little Ice Age and MVP from geologic history.

Mann's fudging of the evidence, as well as his refusal to share his methodology with critical colleagues casts as much doubt on his intellectual credibility as Tarski has brought upon himself here.

As to Schmidt's general credibility within climatology regarding the human "footprint" see

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg1 ... eesaw.html

Peilke is wrong about the degree and possible effects of GW, but he's a reasonable observer who dislikes the massive politicization that has taken place (indeed, general global warming ceased almost ten years ago, and has been essentially flat ever since. Other evidence suggests cooling could be right around the corner. Primarily, however, the overwhelming burden of the evidence is clear that we don't know what the Hell is going to happen next year or in a thousand years. We simply don't have that kind of knowledge and climatology is too young a science and lacks too much basic knowledge about the global climate system to make those kinds of predictions).


Now, as I've told some of the other Mormocoms in this debate, if you want to take the low road and ground virtually your entire argument, as Tarski has chosen to do, in ad hominem circumstantial well poisoning (the funding source of a group or individual has no necessary connection to quality of his opinions or arguments), then you live or die in that context.

Let's take the AGW advocacy group Tarski has used here, Realclimate, as an example. These folks are past masters at "He's funded by Exxon" technique of debate circumvention, yet Realclimate.org was set up by Environmental Media Services, a leftist media clearinghouse that provides the supplies the mainstream media with environmental scare stories and junk science on every topic from AGW to genetically engineered crops to the dangers of the Big Mac. EMS is the media arm of Fenton Communications, the peeminant leftist communications firm in America. Fenton Communications was started in 1982 by David Fenton, a deeply ideological leftist who began the firm for the explicit purpose of political advocacy. Fenton Communications itself was originally started as a "project" of the extreme leftist Tides Foundation, based in San Francisco, a foundation that acts as a distributor of the money of other foundations and doners to third parties. This puts a buffer of anonymity between the original doners and their political ideology and the end recipients and any public activism or educational activities those third parties may engage in.

Tarski would probably be in good company with Fenton here, as he has used his firm to support a number of Marxist governments and groups, including the Nicaraguan Sandinistas, the Brutal FMLN, Grenada's dictator Maurise Bishop, and the Soviet sponsored MPLA regime in Angola.

Interestingly, the scientists at Realclimate aren't the only environmental extremists with which Fenton has been associated. His work with the NRDC during one of the most shameless junk science scares in history (Alar) is noteworthy, as is his work with clients such as the Environmental Working Group, Amnesty International, Air America Radio, the NAACP, the Rainforest Action Network, the Sierra Club, Global Exchange, the Open Society Institute, and Pew Charitable Trusts, the Institute for Policy Studies, Ralph Nader's Public Citizen, TransAfrica, the magazine In These Times, the National Urban League, the American Friends Service Committee, Rock the Vote, School of the Americas Watch, the Nature Conservancy, Greenpeace, the Heinz Family Foundation , the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Turner Foundation, the Tides Foundation.

Oh, and another Fenton employee, Arlie Schardt, Chairman of Environmental Media Services, the group that set up Realclimate.org, was premier ecofascist Al Gore's national press secratary during his first run for the Presidency.

No matter how Tarski may slice it, incest is still best.


As to the nature of the "consensus" one of many good introductions would be http://www.cei.org/gencon/019,04362.cfm


Chris Landsea is just some hurricane guy whose only beef seems to be whether there had been an increase in hurricanes or not. He is not at a top university (or any university).


Landsea is a climate scientist, and was with the IPCC until he quite in disgust at its politicization.


Richard Lindzen is the one guy who has some real credentials to speak on the topic. He only claims that the IPCC report to policy makers had exaggerated language. In fact, that may be true but the exaggeration was something like 90% certain where it should have been more like 80% certain. It is my understanding that he backs up most of the science in the scientific portion IPCC of the report. He is however, in the extreme minority regarding his minor skepticism. He also claims that second hand tobacco smoke is not harmful (minority there to I suppose).


Nice try at greasing your own skids, but it won't wash. You clearly don't know a thing about Lindzen or his positions on AGW (or you do, but don't care to admit it publically). Get your nose out of Mother Jones and start doing some substantial reading of his material.

Poor, poor showing Tarski.
The face of sin today often wears the mask of tolerance.


- Thomas S. Monson
_Tarski
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Post by _Tarski »

Coggins7 wrote:
Poor, poor showing Tarski.


You are delusional. We will let the readers be the judge. I know who is on my side in this and as I have pointed out, the most important climate scientists and scientific societies are on my side.

Fill a hat with the names of the top climate scientists in the world. Pick a name at random from the hat (a large hat). What are the chances that a person agreeing with you will be drawn? Well, the odds are so in my favor I would feel comfortable betting 10 years salary that a name agreeing with you will not be drawn. Even on a hundred trials.

Ihave made it clear what caliber of scientists and what societies agree with me.

You think you made a good showing?

As I said, you are delusional.
when believers want to give their claims more weight, they dress these claims up in scientific terms. When believers want to belittle atheism or secular humanism, they call it a "religion". -Beastie

yesterday's Mormon doctrine is today's Mormon folklore.-Buffalo
_Coggins7
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Post by _Coggins7 »

Let me just explain what an idiot you are. I am a centrist by comparison to most people who think of themselves as on the left. I believe in a responsible free market, democracy and individual rights. I do not follow Chomsky
or Hugo Chavez.


Who are you trying to lie to Tarski, me or yourself. Everything you've said here puts you solidly on the committed Left of the political spectrum. You're views on the Iraq war are in essense those of Cindy Sheehan, Dennis Kucinich, and MoveOn.org.


I am left of you for sure but then so are half the republican senators!!



I'm already certain you have only the slimmest grasp of what either the Left or the Right really mean in both a philosophical land historical context.


Almost half of my scientific friends and colleges at my university in the south voted for bush.
All of these scientists accept the minimal statements I made about GW.



You have not made miminal statements about it. You're claims regarding it hail from the fever swamps of the modern environmental movement, or, in other words, the far Left.


So I am not a "leftist". In many countries I would be considered to be on the right.


If this is the case, than why is every politically relevant statement you've ever made, here or at MAD, understandable only within the context of a staunch leftist worldview?


Second, you are so untrained that you can't realize that


a. The consensus became large after your partly faked, unprofessional, and politically motivated Oregon petition. Most of all it was reactionary.


Neither you nor you're dubious and uncheckable mainstream media sources have demonstrated any such thing. Even if the reporters who claimed to have done some research (and these are mainstream media reporters-who knows really what they did or how intellectually substantive it might have been?) are completely accurate, your example claims that, how many, perhaps a few dozen...a few score, a hundred of the 17,000 signatories should be removed as bogus? Some of your sources do nothing but cast innuendo on the Petition, and produce no numbers at all. The entire thing is utterly lacking in either solid documentation or reliable numbers. And the tentative numbers that are there are...tiny compared to the whole. Much of it is, according to at least one of the authors, pure guesswork.


b. The worlds premier skeptic Michael Shermer and a host of critics changed their mind based on evidence well after that silly petition (which is old and half of a random sample said they wouldn't sign it again while others didn't even remember signing it).


Who cares? Do I need to post a list of scientists who used to believe in AGW but are now skeptical?


The evidence was correlated and the evidential situation clarified after that time. The Fourth Assessment Report "Climate Change 2007" took place recently and was where and when the total and also latest evidence was hashed out in it's most comprehensive and convincing form. You are out of date.


And you're killing yourself. The fourth assessment and even the usually hysterical summery for policy makers, feature lower temperature increases for future warming than past reports, and the bogus "hockey stick" is gone. Keep in mind that the IPCC is not a scientific body but a political body, composed of many scientists but many non-scientists as well. It is also a body utterly awash in interested government money from around the world, much of it hostile to America, capitalism, and liberal democracy generally. The IPCC is really not the last word on GW, nor should it even necessarily be taken serious on a number of points. It is not a scientific body per se The political corruption of the peer review process at IPCC is now legendary, as is the fact that, indeed folks, there are no scientists in the IPCC at all. The IPCC is a creature of the U.N., specifically, a subsidiary of UN Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization. Now, the UNEP, which really runs the IPCC, is a radical environmentalist organization, not a scientific group. There are hundreds of scientists who work for the IPCC, but these are intermingled with many more political ideologues and interested parties who's interest is not scientific.

Indeed, here's what the Preface to the 1995 Second Assessment report from Working Group I ("The Science of Climate Change") says regarding the purpose of IPCC reports:

...the underlying aim of this report is to provide objective information on which to base global change policies that will meet the ultimate aim of the FCCC - expressed in Article 2 of the Convention...


You see, there was never any question in the minds of those who founded and who maintain the IPCC whether catastrophic AGW was real or not. That was apparently decided before the IPCC was created to prove what had already become politically required: capitalism and modern industry are warming the planet through the introduction of a very minor trace greenhouse gas, CO2, and humanity and the biosphere are at risk. The IPCC's purpose does not seem to ever have been to discern whether AGW was real or not; its only purpose was to confirm what everybody already knew wrapped in the folds of the prestige of scientific research. Now, what kind of science is it that sets out to confirm what is already assumed (as opposed to trying to ascertain whether a specific hypothesis is really valid or not)?

Tarki's kind, apparently.

Science marches on.

The fact that you are not scientifically trained is the reason you can't tell the difference between the Oregon (pseudo-)petition
and the IPCC report and the endorsement of every major scientific society.


See above. You're reliance on a U.N. created and funded propaganda mill belies your smarmy credentialism as well as your very real lack of evidence with which to support your claims.


You just don't have a feel for truth as is witnessed by your belief in everything from demons, disappearing gold plates, seer stones and your imaginary cartoon caricature of a "leftist" to fairy tales like Noah's Ark and angels with flaming swords commanding new wives.



More Dawkinsesque froth and spittle. Keep up the pose Tarski.
The face of sin today often wears the mask of tolerance.


- Thomas S. Monson
_Tarski
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Post by _Tarski »

Coggins7 wrote:
More Dawkinsesque froth and spittle. Keep up the pose Tarski.


This is perfect. Your arguments don't amount to anything more than statements like this.
You keep repeating yourself and it never gets any better. Ironically, you seem to think that you are doing so well.

Hilarious.

I will continue to enjoy intellectual company of real thinkers (including, yes, Richard Dawkins, Dan Dennett, Steven Weinberg, Steven Hawking etc).

You on the other hand, can remain in you delusional rightwing, anti-science religious fundamentalist world full of seer stones, angels, Noah's ark, Adam and Eve and other bedtime stories.
Have a nice delusional life.
Image
Image
when believers want to give their claims more weight, they dress these claims up in scientific terms. When believers want to belittle atheism or secular humanism, they call it a "religion". -Beastie

yesterday's Mormon doctrine is today's Mormon folklore.-Buffalo
_Canucklehead
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Post by _Canucklehead »

Coggins7 wrote:Let me just point out a few things here while I agree with Wade but with some reservations.

1. There is no empirical evidence, as of yet, that CO2 drives climate change. It must have some effect, of course, but that effect is clearly quite small, as CO2 is less than one percent of all greenhouse gases and we know that, over the last several million years, when major warmings have occurred, the warming always precedes the rise of C02 levels. C02 always lags behind actual warming by roughly 800 years or so, give or take.

2. The present warming (a little over half a degree centigrade in a century), is modest, normal, and well withing natural variability. There have been a number of periods in geologic time in which C02 levels have been much higher than today, and global mean temperatures have not necessarily been higher in all of these cases.

3. There is no human "footprint" yet known in empirical climate science. The entire AGW edifice has been constructed purely out of computer simulations (which are not the same thing as empirical climate science) and highly circumstantial evidence of dubious plausibility.

4. Tarski probably doesn't recognize the hysteria and fanaticism because, as a leftist, these mental states are a normative condition for him (as his Iraq war quip clearly demonstrates). The hysteria has been steadily growing since the 90s, and has reached fantastic (and societally dangerous) proportions at the present time. We now have journalists and even some true believing climate scientists calling for the firing, professional and social ostracizing, and even the prosecution and corporeal punishment (for "crimes against humanity) of other scientists, no matter how qualified, who dissent from the orthodox dogmas of the form of militant fundamentalist pantheism known as environmentalism. We have pro AGW, government funded climate scientists fudging evidence, hiding their data from peer scrutiny, and media hounding their most extreme scenarios.

5. Modern environmentalism, when it is not of the militant pantheist "deep ecology" cast, is little more than the present halfway house for the West's hardcore, inveterate Left; that international community of Communists, neo-Communists, Marxists, Cultural Marxists, and other assorted and related utopian collectivists who lost their Great White Hope when the Berlin Wall came tumbling down. In the early nineties, there was a mass exodus out of overt support for naked Marxist economic and social theory (except in the academy, where even the most vacuous ideas still hold out against reality) and into a theoretical framework in which the old socialist dreams could be persued surreptitiously in the name of another popular movement. That movement was environmentalism. Environmentalism had already become dominated by the Left, of course, but the massive influx of a displaced radical Left into the movement galvanized and energized it, not only in North America, but across the world. Gorbachev wasn't out of office too long before he started Green Cross International and underwrote the Earth Charter.

AGW, more than any other issue, has been the environmental movement's ace in the hole with regard to the ultimate destruction of capitalism, republican self government, democratic institutions, and the Judeo/Christian moral and social fabric they so despise. For the anti-modern, anti-technology, neo-primitivist deep ecologists, even if not communists per se, this kind of ideology and its policy prescriptions fits quite nicely with their equally fervent hatred of economic liberty, individualism, and Judeo/Christian social structure.

5. AGW is the greatest pseudo-scientific, ideologically driven hoax of the entire last century and has continued on into the present. The only two situations I can think of that approach it in both intellectual dishonesty, emotional hyperventilation, and dearth of scientific justification is the DDT and general anti-chemical hysteria of the sixties, sparked by Rachael Carson, and the intellectual depredations of Lysenko in The Soviet Union in the field of biology.

6. Gore's propaganda dog and pony show has been shredded repeatedly by serious critics. If anyone wants the links to some excellent critiques, just let me know.


With this diatribe, coggins lost any credibility that he had with me. He makes all kinds of ridiculous, delusional claims, peppered with hate-filled attacks against anything he deems to be of the "left" (all the while claiming that the lefists are the ones filled with hate), and doesn't provide a single shred evidence in support of anything he's claiming.

Ack.
_wenglund
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Post by _wenglund »

I don't wish to get into a counterproductive war over who has the biggest scientists. Rather, I would like to do some simple math using data that is likely agreeable to Tarski (please let me know if or where you disagree).

1. Greenhouse gases contribute approximately 30 degrees celsius to warming the earth. 1

2. Carbon dioxide (one of several greenhouse gases) contributes between 9-26% of the greenhouse effect 2, which means that it is responsible for warming the earth by between 3 to 7.5 degrees celsius.

3. Over the last 100 to 150 years, carbon dioxide levels have increased about 25% or 90 ppmv (from 280 ppmv to 370 ppmv). 3.

4. Over that same period of time the earth's temperature has increased .3 to .6 degrees celcius (about 1/2 a degree). 4

5. Let's assume that this temperature increase is disproportionately caused by an increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Let's be quite generous and say that carbopn dioxide is 80% responsible for the increase in temperature, which would mean that increased carbon dioxide levels are responsible for an approximately increase of .24 to .48 degrees celsius (between 1/4 and 1/2 a degree)--which means that at the very worst, the 25% increase in carbon dioxide produced an approximate .625% (.00625) increase in tempurature over the last 150 years.

6. But, not all carbon dioxide is human generated. In fact, only 22% of current carbon dioxide concentrations are due to human activity. 5. So, at the very worst, human production of carbon diaoxide was responsible for an increase of .11 degrees celsius (about 1/10th of a degree) over the last 150 years, or a .14% (.0014) increase.

7. Transportation fuels represent 19% of human-generated carbon dioxide. 5. So, at the very worst, transportation fuels may be responsible for an increase of .02 degrees celsius (two-tenths of a degree) over the last 150 years, or a .03% (.0003) increase.

So, if we humans were to discontinue altogether using transportation fuels that generate carbon dioxide, the best we can hope to decrease global warming sometime in the future is by two-tenths of a degree celsius.

Ignoring for the moment the impracticality in doing so, will this relatively nominal benefit be outweighed by the over-all cost in eliminating, all together, carbon dioxide-generating transportation fuels?

Putting this issue even further into perspective, if one then takes the relatively small proportion of transportation fuels consumed by SUV's (let's be extrodinarily generous and say it is 5% of the total consumption) and put those SUV drivers in smaller cars that generate less carbon dioxide (lets again be generous and say that smaller cars generate 50% less carbon dioxide than SUV's), that would at best result in cooling the earth by five-onehundreths of a single degree celsius, or .0075% (.000075).

Yes, I can certainly see great cause for concern and action. LOL

Even more significant, when one compares the amount of time and energy and money and public attention devoted to generating such microscopic, let alone unrealistic results, and then contrast that with all the tremendous personal and social good that could be accomplished with the same time and energy and money and publicity, then perhaps one may get a sense for why I think the whole global warming bruhaha is nonsense. ;-)

Thanks, -Wade Englund-
_barrelomonkeys
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Post by _barrelomonkeys »

Wade, I'm going to send cacheman a pm at MAD to tell him that these global warming conversations are down in the Off Topic Forum. He had shown interest in the conversation a few days ago.
_cacheman
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Post by _cacheman »

Thanks Book of Mormon for pointing me here:)

I'll take a little time to look over Wade's post.

cacheman
_barrelomonkeys
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Post by _barrelomonkeys »

cacheman wrote:Thanks Book of Mormon for pointing me here:)

I'll take a little time to look over Wade's post.

cacheman


:)
_cacheman
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Post by _cacheman »

AAARRGHHH! I spent over an hour typing up two posts which I lost when I tried to submit them. I do have the second one saved on my work computer, and I'll get back there tomorrow. Shades, why do I have to login a second time when I post, and why do I consequently lose my post? I'm probably doing something wrong, but it would be nice to avoid it.

Anyway, I don't have time now except to say that I got stuck on Wade's #2 statements. I'll come back and clarify that when I can. Right now, I've got to take my wife a shoppin'.

cacheman
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