Ben Shapiro lies about Omicron and vaccines

[ajax18]

If anything, the overwhelming of the hospital system due to Omicron has been due to vax mandates and the subsequent labor shortage that is limiting ICU beds available. Viruses often evolve to be more infectious and less deadly. Given that Omicron is actually helping our bodies recognize and fight off future variants of Covid, one has to ask what the real point behind quarantining, socialist distancing, and slowing the spread of Omicron is? Not only does this create artificial labor shortages and is horrible for the economy, it's also bad for most peoples long term health. Nor do vaccines stop people from getting infected with and spreading Omicron. So what's the point in vaccine mandates at work?

[Res Ipsa]

That's one anecdote from one hospital whereas the CDC number of 95% refers to nationwide.

We're talking about two different things.

You said "Hospitalizations are hitting record highs all across the country in number of patients taken in, and the CDC has determined that 95% of those cases involve Omicron."

I'm assuming you meant "95% of covid hospitalizations involve Omicron" (not total hospitalizations). Which is probably true. But that doesn't support your overall argument. But since you didn't actually provide a source for your claim, who knows.


In order to figure out what, exactly, is going on, we need better data. Let's look at Ohio, which conveniently has a data dashboard that breaks out ICU, ventilator, and other hospital patients. They're also not one of the most highly vaccinated states (#35), so hopefully you'll agree they might serve as a good "bellwether" for lesser vaxxed areas.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal ... alizations

When you look at the chart showing the trends, you can see three things:

1. The overall patient count for "covid positive" rises from 5,356 on 12/29 -> 6,727 on 1/11. A 25% increase
2. The number of "Covid positive -ICU" patients rises from 1,226 -> 1,243. A 1% increase!
3. And the number of "Covid positive - Ventilator" patients rises from 757 -> 843. An 11% increase.

You can also see that more than 2/3 of their hospital patients aren't covid patients. So when making claims about hospital capacity, be sure to include that in your math.

Obviously, if you have any other data that speaks to the country as a whole, or other regions you'd like to focus on, that would be great.

Absolutely fair, because the data on nationwide Omicron cases doesn't rely on one hospital. The data suggests hospitals ICU units are being completely overrun. Are you telling me that's because we've had a massive wave of non-COVID illnesses that require ICU/ventilators?

Where are you seeing data that shows a "massive wave" of ventilator usage and increase in ICU usage? You said "the data" twice, but didn't actually provide any actual data.

That report didn't poll people to ask about political affiliation. However this one did.

The US is seeing about ~1,600 daily deaths. How many of those would you say are "Trump loving morons" each day, and where are you getting that data from?

A couple of things. The percentage of new infections that are Omicron v. Delta varies widely across the country. Several regions were experiencing high levels of delta infection when Omicron first arrived, and Delta continues to spread in those areas. In areas where the rate of infection was relatively low pre-Omicron, the vast majority of new cases are Omicron. I haven't seen the CDC or anyone else say that 95% of new infections are Omicron.

Picking a single week or two-week period from a single state can't give us an accurate assessment of what is happening even in that state, let alone the country. That's especially true when the period involves the holidays. Cinepro's numbers are essentially useless, as we've known for 20 months or so that there is a lag between infection and hospitalization and between infection and severe infection that results in a stay in the ICU. On top of that, statewide reporting on hospitalization and ICU bed usage doesn't appear to be very accurate or updated in a timely manner. Ed Yong wrote a good piece on this today, also explaining why its misleading to emphasize the difference between with Covid and for Covid. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ay/621229/

The current hospital crisis is a combination of a surge in COVID patients and staff shortages caused by hospital staff becoming infected with COVID. It doesn't matter how many "officially" staffed beds a hospital has if 25% is sick with or recovering from a COVID infection.

This is also misleading: "You can also see that more than 2/3 of their hospital patients aren't covid patients. So when making claims about hospital capacity, be sure to include that in your math." Hospitals don't typically have no filled regular or ICU beds. Empty beds can't make money. There is an expected occupancy rate which, in the absence of COVID, would be composed of non-COVID patients. If we're talking about what causes a hospital overrun, the expected cases don't "cause" an overrun. The cause of the overrun is whatever has exceeded the additional capacity built into the system to absorb disasters or other mass casualty events. And the evidence is pretty clear that the cause of the current overruns is COVID.

What we aren't short of this time is ventilators. The supply of ventilators was significantly increased after the initial waves. Also, doctors have developed other protocols to try and keep moderate cases from progressing to the stage at which a ventilator is needed. So we've got vents. And we've got PPE. What we're short of this time around is staff. And, given the percentage of hospital personnel who actually quit their jobs over vaccine mandates (if I recall correctly, less than 1%), it was completely disingenuous for Shapiro to suggest that the staff shortage is primarily due to vaccine mandates.

But it is different in different states. Some states in the Northeast were short of hospital personnel before the pandemic. Others were not. Delta spikes happened in different locations at different times, and Omicron will spread to different areas at different rates. And although infection disease experts are cranking out papers at lightning speed, it's going to take a while to have enough data to answer many of the questions were all asking.

One thing that's important: this is really the first time we've had a surge occur in all states at the same time. Before, one state could help another during a surge by taking patients. Washington did this with Delta cases from Idaho and Oregon for months. My first real clue that Omicron could be nasty was when Washington hospitals announced they would no longer take out of state transfers back in early to mid December. When every state is surging at the same time, there's no slack in the system to call on. The only people who can create any slack is us, and we don't seem to be able to grasp that concept.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

If anything, the overwhelming of the hospital system due to Omicron has been due to vax mandates and the subsequent labor shortage that is limiting ICU beds available. Viruses often evolve to be more infectious and less deadly. Given that Omicron is actually helping our bodies recognize and fight off future variants of Covid, one has to ask what the real point behind quarantining, socialist distancing, and slowing the spread of Omicron is? Not only does this create artificial labor shortages and is horrible for the economy, it's also bad for most peoples long term health. Nor do vaccines stop people from getting infected with and spreading Omicron. So what's the point in vaccine mandates at work?

-_-

[Res Ipsa]

If anything, the overwhelming of the hospital system due to Omicron has been due to vax mandates and the subsequent labor shortage that is limiting ICU beds available. Viruses often evolve to be more infectious and less deadly. Given that Omicron is actually helping our bodies recognize and fight off future variants of Covid, one has to ask what the real point behind quarantining, socialist distancing, and slowing the spread of Omicron is? Not only does this create artificial labor shortages and is horrible for the economy, it's also bad for most peoples long term health. Nor do vaccines stop people from getting infected with and spreading Omicron. So what's the point in vaccine mandates at work?

That's 100% bull, Ajax. C'mon, link to the numbers of hospital personnel who actually quit because of vax mandates. We'll be waiting.

[K Graham]

I haven't seen the CDC or anyone else say that 95% of new infections are Omicron.

Omicron now 95% of new COVID-19 infections in U.S., CDC estimates

[Res Ipsa]

two right-wing friends from the AM ventures have Covid. Seem to be doing pretty well considering age and health, both have full vax plus booster.

Good for them. I hope they are rewarded for their efforts.

[K Graham]

If anything, the overwhelming of the hospital system due to Omicron has been due to vax mandates and the subsequent labor shortage that is limiting ICU beds available. Viruses often evolve to be more infectious and less deadly. Given that Omicron is actually helping our bodies recognize and fight off future variants of Covid, one has to ask what the real point behind quarantining, socialist distancing, and slowing the spread of Omicron is? Not only does this create artificial labor shortages and is horrible for the economy, it's also bad for most peoples long term health. Nor do vaccines stop people from getting infected with and spreading Omicron. So what's the point in vaccine mandates at work?

You're just mindlessly repeating the Ben Shapiro talking point that's already been debunked. You refer to natural immunity which only lasts a few months. So wrong on that point as well. You're also kinda dumb to think the economy would be rockin' and rollin' if we just pretended like everything was normal and businesses opened everything up at full speed. We learned from 2020 that businesses will close on their own because a drop in demand is predictable. Has nothing to do with mandates.

[K Graham]

If anything, the overwhelming of the hospital system due to Omicron has been due to vax mandates and the subsequent labor shortage that is limiting ICU beds available. Viruses often evolve to be more infectious and less deadly. Given that Omicron is actually helping our bodies recognize and fight off future variants of Covid, one has to ask what the real point behind quarantining, socialist distancing, and slowing the spread of Omicron is? Not only does this create artificial labor shortages and is horrible for the economy, it's also bad for most peoples long term health. Nor do vaccines stop people from getting infected with and spreading Omicron. So what's the point in vaccine mandates at work?

That's 100% bull, Ajax. C'mon, link to the numbers of hospital personnel who actually quit because of vax mandates. We'll be waiting.

Right Wing talking heads relied on a skewed poll which they took among their listeners which suggested 15-30% would quit before getting vaxed. But that actual number is closer to 5%.

[K Graham]

If anything, the overwhelming of the hospital system due to Omicron has been due to vax mandates and the subsequent labor shortage that is limiting ICU beds available. Viruses often evolve to be more infectious and less deadly. Given that Omicron is actually helping our bodies recognize and fight off future variants of Covid, one has to ask what the real point behind quarantining, socialist distancing, and slowing the spread of Omicron is? Not only does this create artificial labor shortages and is horrible for the economy, it's also bad for most peoples long term health. Nor do vaccines stop people from getting infected with and spreading Omicron. So what's the point in vaccine mandates at work?

-_-

[Res Ipsa]

I haven't seen the CDC or anyone else say that 95% of new infections are Omicron.

Omicron now 95% of new COVID-19 infections in U.S., CDC estimates

My apologies, Kevin. I confused the percentages for new cases and deaths. New cases are currently estimated as 98+% Omicron.