Climate Change Predictions

[honorentheos]

Also, African Sumac is one of my least favorite trees. I'm sure they have their place but it isn't in Arizona.

True; it’s an ‘introduced’ variety, and seen as invasive. The seeds sprout too easily and in no time, a single tree can end up fostering a community of saplings.

My guess is that it was first popularized as a tree that would take no effort to grow. And, examples in some older neighborhoods do have a certain beauty about their form and trunk. Likely its continued use benefited from nostalgic memories.

When we left AZ, they were no longer being recommended by more conscientious designers or landscapers.

https://www.aznps.com/invasives/GrowNat ... _sumac.htm

The generation of designers that came up planting them along with oleander, pines, and Bottlebrush trees are resistant to the change but most landscape architects I know won't entertain planting them. The industry goes through cycles like that. In the early 2000s everyone planted Sissio like it was a wonder tree. Now nurseries barely stock them as their root problems became more evident and caused damage. Most recently Pistache and Mulgas are the trees being over planted. Ursala at the AG extension did a research project a few years back showing the Red Push may be a very drought resistant tree once established and even outperforming natives. That bolsters their use even more in the urban forestry and landscape design community.

But our issue is we don't know what we don't know until the full consequences of our attempts to modify the environment manifest. Native fauna evolved to rely on native plant communities to fulfill habitat needs which we largely ignore when creating mini garden transplant oasis in the desert. A sumac seed may be used by some bird species for food but displace other habitat needs a mesquite provides for the same species, for example, or no needs for another species. Or it could be perfect habitat for invasive fauna which encourages their population to displace native fauna as well. Sustainable and resilient site design practices have evolved to demand more humility and holistic multidisciplinary decision making.

[ceeboo]

My guess is Ceeboo has no personal reason to take it seriously and human nature makes the attempt to change his mind almost impossible.

My guess is that there is almost definitely a reason that you (as well as others in the thread) are forcing this discussion to be focused on me - Rather than discussing the previous several catastrophic predictions about the climate that did not come to pass in the OP.

But the real Ceeboo will not have that luxury. God help him if his government fails to act in time as the impacts of it will not hit everyone equally.

Another catastrophic prediction? Imagine that.

Your authoritative warning (littered with confidence) is strikingly similar to how a cult leader will express prophecy to his/her followers about end times - So what happens when that prophecy doesn't come to pass? Nothing - What happens the next time the prophecy doesn't come to pass? Nothing. And the next waring of upcoming catastrophe? Nothing, the followers are very loyal and without a hint of skepticism they just keep folowing.

[huckelberry]

So you did not respond because you understood absolutely nothing of what I said.
I said nothing about fires.

ok ok I will explain a bit. In 1970 if you went to Lewiston Idaho on many days there would be limited visibility from seriously annoying smoke. There was no fire. The smoke came from industrial smoke stacks. At that time there was growing environmental concerns which, though requiring people to make a bunch of noise did result in widespread change in industrial emissions (car and truck as well). You live in a much cleaner environment due to a combination of industry change and legal pressure from government.

Okay - Thanks for giving me another shot. (Smoke/fire - same ballpark? - Kidding)

Still not sure (Keep being patient with me, sometimes I miss the point) what that has to do with the OP/topic which is about past articles written, spanning decades, that make predictions that ended up not being remotely accurate.

Hi ceeboo. there are definitely crackpot articles and magazines looking for attention from extreme scenerios. Your presentation ends with the observation that these sort of articles harm their purpose more than help it. On that he is definitely correct.

The environmental issues were bigger and more important than some goofy articles about ice ages. The current need to develop more renewable non carbon based energy sources is a bigger issue than exaggerated fears about all the ice suddenly disappearing.

[honorentheos]

I should note a little hypocrisy on my part here. My yard is largely unirrigated and designed to use storm water as much as possible. But while it is largely planted with natives we had a few Cassia from the previous owner whose seed took root on their own after the redo so I decided to see how they did. I don't use pre emergent as we let wildflowers grow in the late winter and spring so the seed left behind in the soil had a chance to sprout. And the.Cassia grow wonderfully without supplemental irrigation. But I don't think the quail covey the frequents that neighborhood and is often in our yard uses them. They mostly frequent the iron wood and fairy dusters which is where they were this morning when I spooked them.

Anyway, the Cassia are Australian in origin and probably not a good habit plant either. But I love their flowers in the spring and their resiliency. So there is my contribution to the hypocrisy.

[honorentheos]

My guess is Ceeboo has no personal reason to take it seriously and human nature makes the attempt to change his mind almost impossible.

My guess is that there is almost definitely a reason that you (as well as others in the thread) are forcing this discussion to be focused on me.

To the contrary I was dismissing your op. We don't have time to waste on deniers. If I thought you would honestly engage I'd take some time to offer corrections to your OPs misinformation. Instead I felt it presented an opportunity to point out to whomever might care to know that climate denial is diminishing as the urgency to act has passed a tipping point.

Your OP is a relic of a past that did damage we have to work hard now to overcome. I'm sorry but your view isn't worth the effort or the time needed to attempt some form of shift in understanding you almost certainly won't undergo. You can't personalize the impacts and have a political reason to be skeptical I couldn't care less about at th scale of the Internet troll. I'm sorry. But it will almost certainly matter to your son and his generation in a way you can't currently conceive.

[canpakes]

My guess is Ceeboo has no personal reason to take it seriously and human nature makes the attempt to change his mind almost impossible.

My guess is that there is almost definitely a reason that you (as well as others in the thread) are forcing this discussion to be focused on me - Rather than discussing the previous several catastrophic predictions about the climate that did not come to pass in the OP.

But the real Ceeboo will not have that luxury. God help him if his government fails to act in time as the impacts of it will not hit everyone equally.

Another catastrophic prediction? Imagine that.

Your authoritative warning (littered with confidence) is strikingly similar to how a cult leader will express prophecy to his/her followers about end times - So what happens when that prophecy doesn't come to pass? Nothing - What happens the next time the prophecy doesn't come to pass? Nothing. And the next waring of upcoming catastrophe? Nothing, the followers are very loyal and without a hint of skepticism they just keep folowing.

I just stated upstream that you should post more examples of ‘catastrophic predictions’, so that they could be discussed. Your response here ignores that and instead makes this about you, then you claim that other folks are in a cult.

NGL, but when your case depends on complaining about one scientist’s timeline being two decades incorrect for the unexpected end of a 10,000-year climate cycle that is clearly underway, then the culty/political groupthink response appears to be coming from your own side of the fence.

As mentioned before - this trend isn’t exactly looking good:

[honorentheos]

For those interested in a more productive, forward looking discussion it's worth looking to the outcomes of COP28:

https://unfccc.int/cop28

It included the presentation of the results from the first global stocktake which some folks may want to be aware of when it comes to predictions and results over the last decade:

https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stockt ... his-decade

I can say with firsthand knowledge that major companies everyone on this board does business with whether they know it or not aren't playing the games presented in the OP. The cost of inaction in relation to the evidence of the last few years doesn't allow for that politicizing of the issues. In 2008 when Sarah Palin was waxing dumb about touchy feely libtards, she was governor of a state whose climate action initiatives and attempts are understanding it as an issue were no nonsense because the State of Alaska couldn't afford to treat it like a game. The impacts were noticeable to them then and while they remained pro drilling they were not goofing when it came to coastal resiliency impacts. It reflects where many are now who want to have and eat their cake. The consequences have become real but the actions are straddling a line in the hopes we can fix the problems while preserving old practices as much as possible.

[canpakes]

Maybe Ceeboo should ask himself how or why the idea of using less oil became politicized.

[ceeboo]

My guess is that there is almost definitely a reason that you (as well as others in the thread) are forcing this discussion to be focused on me.

To the contrary I was dismissing your op. We don't have time to waste on deniers.

Showing a few decades worth of articles written by climate experts now gets you labeled a "denier." LOL!

If I thought you would honestly engage I'd take some time to offer corrections to your OPs misinformation.

You're going to offer "corrections" to several articles that literally exist? The entire point of the OP is that they exist.

Your OP is a relic of a past that did damage we have to work hard now to overcome.

Relic of the past? Would you consider OP article from 2017 to be a relic from the past? How about the OP article from 2018? 2020? How about the one written in 2022?

I'm sorry but your view isn't worth the effort or the time needed to attempt some form of shift in understanding you almost certainly won't undergo.

And if I were to tell you that I have never shared my view anywhere on this entire thread - what then?

You can't personalize the impacts and have a political reason to be skeptical

There does indeed seem to be some political factors in play here - I would suggest it's on your side.

I couldn't care less about at th scale of the Internet troll. I'm sorry.

No need to be sorry, expressing your views ought to be delivered without apology.

But it will almost certainly matter to your son and his generation in a way you can't current conceive.

Well, at least folks like you can conceive - so maybe all of our kids, thanks to you, will be okay.

[honorentheos]

Benefit of a doubt - if you pick one of the reports from the OP of your choice I'll discuss it with you in detail. But you have to commit to a discussion. Not, "very interesting thanks for posting", but an exchange of data and the synthesis of the other person's points within the response.

Fair?