The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[_Icarus]

Looks like cases and deaths have been halted in China, perhaps due to market forces.

Probably more likely the case is that those who would dare report more deaths have been executed.

[_Res Ipsa]

Looks like cases and deaths have been halted in China, perhaps due to market forces.

Probably more likely the case is that those who would dare report more deaths have been executed.

BS.

It’s exactly this kind of nonsense that is preventing us from using lessons learned in China to better slow the spread here.

The disease is still killing people in China and people are still getting sick. What China has successfully done is slowed the the peak so that their health care systems aren’t overrun, even in Wuhan. That’s exactly what epidemiologists recommends in every epidemic. China has a team on the ground in Iran right now, trying to help get Iran’s epidemic under control using what they have learned so far. Chinese scientists are communicating with their counterparts at the WHO and are publishing papers with their findings.

What are you doing to help slow the spread of the virus in your area?

[_Icarus]

I'm not sure if you're calling my post nonsense or the situation in China nonsense.

[_Res Ipsa]

I'm not sure if you're calling my post nonsense or the situation in China nonsense.

Color me surprised.

[_Icarus]

Still not helpful.

[_Icarus]

Moksha said China is reporting that all deaths have been halted.

I threw shade on that premise because I know China is just as much concerned about its image as it is anything else.

You then call my post nonsense while at the same time agreeing with my premise that people are still dying in China.

Sorry if my post triggered a nerve in you. My wife and I both are high risk. I've had lingering bronchitis going on three years and she is going through chemo.

[Guest]

Testing information.

The administration can’t stop itself from doing more politics than taking helpful action.

Here’s the scoop on testing:

Because of the problem with the CDC’s test kits, all testing had to be done by the CDC. To try and make the most sensible use of a scarce resource, the CDC adopted a restrictive definition of Persons Under Investigation. Only PUIs we’re eligible to be tested. (There seems to be some discrepancy of whether there was some flexibility by the CDC, but there was no indication of that on the website.). The original definition of PUI only included people showing symptoms after returning from China or who had close contact with a confirmed case (which means by test) in the preceding two weeks. Those requirements applied even to people dying of pneumonia in hospitals where the cause of infection could be identified.

So, because travel bans do not prevent the entry of infectious diseases (WHO has consistently advised against them). The virus entered and began to spread in several us locations without being detected.

On Feb 28, the CDC broadened the definition of a PUI to include people hospitalized with severe respiratory disease where the caused cannot be determined (no travel or close contact required). They also added more countries than China. They also have the states permission to use the CDC test kits. Some states, like mine, started testing within hours, and began identifying the people who were seriously ill from the virus. We located a cluster of highly vulnerable people, which is why our death rate is so high.

Today, the CDC punted and basically said the decision to test is up to local doctors. The administration also announced that millions of tests will soon be available. That’s misleading because the capacity of labs to test samples is also a limiting factor. Don’t expect drive up testing kiosks for a while, if ever. Right now my county has confirmed cases, but only about 26 people who have been tested but are awaiting results. I think the total tested is less than 100 in my county.

ETA: As of noon today, there have been something like 100 people tested in Washington state for COVID-19. Our public health lab can process 200 tests day, but two samples are submitted for each person. Ramping up means finding and buying new equipment and hiring new people. So, dollars. Meanwhile, a representative of the King County health department spent the day yesterday visiting privately owned labs in the area (and we have a fair number), asking them to join the testing effort. Nothing was said about the UW lab, but they are supposed to come on line soon.

Meanwhile, the KC health department stressed that there is no good reason for non-high risk folks to get tested just because they are displaying symptoms of a mild infection. If you get symptoms, stay home and isolate yourself from other family members. If you were tested and found positive, they would tell you to do the exact same thing. If you are sick enough that you wonder if you should be hospitalized, call a doctor or hotline (I don't recommend the latter, here, as the lines are jammed with healthy people demanding to be tested and and have the schools closed. If you are sick enough to need hospital care, they can arrange for you to be transported there in a way that won't expose dozens of health workers. (The first Solano County case resulted in 40 nurses and 88 other health care workers having to be benched for 14 days.)

ETAA: UW announced testing available with capacity for 1000 samples per day. Local tests have priority, but they’ll analyze samples from other locations if they are able. And doctors can request tests online.

[_Chap]

Looks like cases and deaths have been halted in China, perhaps due to market forces.

Probably more likely the case is that those who would dare report more deaths have been executed.

I rather think that the penguin was hinting in that direction. Though administrative detention is probably judged sufficient penalty for making trouble by reporting inconvenient facts under present circumstances.

At times like the present, statistics produced by the Chinese government are only trustworthy when either:

(a) The true data are as the government would like them to be, or preferably better.

(b) The government feels that the political price of falsifying data in terms of loss of public trust is not worth paying.

[_Res Ipsa]

Moksha said China is reporting that all deaths have been halted.

I threw shade on that premise because I know China is just as much concerned about its image as it is anything else.

You then call my post nonsense while at the same time agreeing with my premise that people are still dying in China.

Sorry if my post triggered a nerve in you. My wife and I both are high risk. I've had lingering bronchitis going on three years and she is going through chemo.

Then you should be informing yourself rather than posting misleading speculation about the accuracy of China’s reporting.

[_Res Ipsa]

Chap, your speculation is no better. It certainly is worse than the information gathered by the WHO team that spent time on the ground there.