Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Xenophon]

I suspect that our auto-censor may have DNA from some kind of military history board, in which the decorations of German or Austrian generals and the like might have been mentioned frequently enough to warrant this auto-replacement.

That or Shades burning hot hatred for initialisms/acronyms caused him to add Grosskreutz during the discussion around the Kenosha shootings and subsequent trial.

[honorentheos]

I mean, who could have predicted we'd experience inflation after Trump?

Well, so far none of the self-styled conservatives I've ran into who wax prophetic over Trump's prediction of gas prices under Biden have actually put their money where Trump's mouth is and invested accordingly. But this is one part of a big problem. A leader who has secured indefinite rule by corruption and all branches of government serve him, as Trump desires, is setting up his country for failure.

Self-styled conservatives see Trump's lying as mark of strength. Hell, Trump sees Putin's lying as a mark of strength, and gushes over it. The best argument I've seen for Trump to lead us through this crisis -- and it's a totally predictable argument that I'd thought of independently and not a great argument -- is that Trump is a master poker player like Putin. Remember how Jim Kirk used to school Spock -- Spock's logic was no match for Kirk's BS? Trump has already made several suggestions about what he'd be doing, such as threatening nuclear war right back.

What people don't understand is that the most powerful nations have to be the adults in the room. Like trolls on a message board, an autocrat who inherited a garage full of nukes is fighting an asymmetric war where he's allowed to break rules as he wishes while the powers that be are not -- to the same extent. People get frustrated and want to see Putin's mirror image take him to task as it would happen in an 80's movie. Maybe Trump would be that guy. Maybe. I mean, it's a possibility having our own unpredictable and unhinged leader would put him into a corner. That's why I say it's the best argument I've seen in favor of Trump, because there is a possibility it would work. However, the possibility of nuclear war is also much higher. The possibility of ruining our credibility as a reliable world leader is about guaranteed. It's one of those desperation plays you might get to use once if you're lucky, but won't work long term. The teacher won't win in the long run by out-clowning the class-clowns.

All good points, Gad. I fall in the camp that believes tactical nukes are more probably going to be deployed by Russia than not in this conflict because the Russian military allows for their use in conventional warfare. Putin, front and center on the world stage and fighting a war he wins through brutality at best, didn't raise the alert levels of his nuclear forces for nothing. It's almost certain that wasn't just postering, nor is it likely to just be his way of rattling a saber at the west as using strategic nukes would not be an escalation so much as an act of insanity. Of course, the saying, "There is no such thing as a tactical nuke" is spot on, and the strategic as well as geo-political implications of tactical nukes being used are themselves unprecedented. People seeking easy solutions and inventing power fantasies where they or their hero of choice swoop in and stop the kids running through the rye towards the cliff are delusional.

Anyway, there are posts from back in 2017-2018 where the inevitability of inflation was discussed due to the actions Trump was taking at the time. One doesn't treat a nation like a hostile company takeover, rake up debt while compelling the Fed to keep rates low as the economy burns hot and not experience what we are to some degree. Not all of it is due to Trump's rash economic activity. But the core of it was set into motion three or more years ago. Oh well. Off to work.

[K Graham]

I'm not quite optimistic for Ukraine, but given the past weeks one thing has become clear, and that is the utter incompetence of Russia's military. They've lost so many troops, tanks and aircraft and their 40 mile convoy of armored vehicles was nothing short of idiotic. All Ukraine had to do was to bomb the front of the convoy and everyone else in the back had to come to a standstill. They were literally sitting ducks, and now Russia is asking China for aid.

The Russian troops stuck in the convoy were forced to hide in the woods, and here is footage of a Ukraine drone bombing them:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/0 ... om-vpx.cnn

[K Graham]

Russia has lost 77 aircraft in Ukraine since it invaded the country on February 24, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

A statement by the ministry on Monday said that Russia had also lost 90 helicopters since fighting broke out.

It also said that more than 12,000 Russian military personnel had been killed and 389 tanks had been seized from Russian forces.

Military website Oryx has also provided figures on military equipment that has been seized, damaged or abandoned. The website monitors the destruction of military equipment through open-source reports, such as social media, and each loss needs to be backed up with photographic evidence. The website's numbers on aircraft that have been captured or downed by Ukrainian armed forces are much lower: it estimates only 13 Russian aircraft have been lost since the war began. It says Ukraine has lost nine.

Russia has not provided up-to-date numbers on war casualties and loss of military equipment, including aircraft. Newsweek has contacted the Russian foreign ministry for comment.


https://www.newsweek.com/russia-has-had ... an-1687784

[Gadianton]

Putin, front and center on the world stage and fighting a war he wins through brutality at best, didn't raise the alert levels of his nuclear forces for nothing. It's almost certain that wasn't just postering, nor is it likely to just be his way of rattling a saber at the west as using strategic nukes would not be an escalation so much as an act of insanity. Of course, the saying, "There is no such thing as a tactical nuke" is spot on, and the strategic as well as geo-political implications of tactical nukes being used are themselves unprecedented.

I wasn't following the Crimea matter back in 2014. Reading about it now, there is no shortage of articles commenting on Putin's threat of nukes back then. Knowing he threatened it back then, but the world went on doing business as usual and then some, I'm convinced we might need to absorb 1 tactical without retaliation. In fact, you know, I can hear my mother's voice in my head from many years before that, even, saying, "he wants all those countries back he thinks were wrongfully taken from him." I don't think "rebuild 19th century Russian empire" or the Soviet Empire is some new idea he came up with recently. The fact he invaded and took Crimea under the threat of nuclear force should have been enough for the free world to blackball him.

He's literally getting his ass handed to him in Ukraine and looks like a fool. As he has less and less to lose and continues to look like a failure, he'll want to do the unthinkable if for no other reason than revenge. He will do it, in fact, as long as his generals agree to push the button and I think they might for a tactical. That's why as horrifying as it is to watch, I cringe at the ass-kicking he's taking, because it won't be long before he has nothing to lose.

One good thing to have come from this is that apparently, they are loading their cruise missiles with decoys. (the decoys release while the missile is in flight to confuse anti-missile defense systems). Apparently, this is a first to use with conventional weapons. Several of these have been collected, and I'm sure some engineer at Las Alamos is will be working around the clock to reverse engineer them. It would almost certainly be the same devices used in their strategic nukes.

[Jersey Girl]

About Putin's desire to reconstitute the USSR. If that is the end game, then what does he think there will be left of Ukraine or Russia for that matter? He'll end up with a destroyed economy in Russia and a destroyed infrastructure and land in Ukraine.

So what does he win? Two countries that are both destroyed with no way to rebuild either of them?

[Physics Guy]

I suspect that our auto-censor may have DNA from some kind of military history board, in which the decorations of German or Austrian generals and the like might have been mentioned frequently enough to warrant this auto-replacement.

That or Shades burning hot hatred for initialisms/acronyms caused him to add Grosskreutz during the discussion around the Kenosha shootings and subsequent trial.

Oh, yeah. I didn't follow the Rittenhouse story closely enough to recognize Grosskreutz or even Kenosha as connected to it. From far enough away, I'm afraid, crazy American shootings kind of all blur together and the details stop registering.

[honorentheos]

About Putin's desire to reconstitute the USSR. If that is the end game, then what does he think there will be left of Ukraine or Russia for that matter? He'll end up with a destroyed economy in Russia and a destroyed infrastructure and land in Ukraine.

So what does he win? Two countries that are both destroyed with no way to rebuild either of them?

See the Second Chechen War.

[honorentheos]

Putin, front and center on the world stage and fighting a war he wins through brutality at best, didn't raise the alert levels of his nuclear forces for nothing. It's almost certain that wasn't just postering, nor is it likely to just be his way of rattling a saber at the west as using strategic nukes would not be an escalation so much as an act of insanity. Of course, the saying, "There is no such thing as a tactical nuke" is spot on, and the strategic as well as geo-political implications of tactical nukes being used are themselves unprecedented.

I wasn't following the Crimea matter back in 2014. Reading about it now, there is no shortage of articles commenting on Putin's threat of nukes back then. Knowing he threatened it back then, but the world went on doing business as usual and then some, I'm convinced we might need to absorb 1 tactical without retaliation. In fact, you know, I can hear my mother's voice in my head from many years before that, even, saying, "he wants all those countries back he thinks were wrongfully taken from him." I don't think "rebuild 19th century Russian empire" or the Soviet Empire is some new idea he came up with recently. The fact he invaded and took Crimea under the threat of nuclear force should have been enough for the free world to blackball him.

He's literally getting his ass handed to him in Ukraine and looks like a fool. As he has less and less to lose and continues to look like a failure, he'll want to do the unthinkable if for no other reason than revenge. He will do it, in fact, as long as his generals agree to push the button and I think they might for a tactical. That's why as horrifying as it is to watch, I cringe at the ass-kicking he's taking, because it won't be long before he has nothing to lose.

One good thing to have come from this is that apparently, they are loading their cruise missiles with decoys. (the decoys release while the missile is in flight to confuse anti-missile defense systems). Apparently, this is a first to use with conventional weapons. Several of these have been collected, and I'm sure some engineer at Las Alamos is will be working around the clock to reverse engineer them. It would almost certainly be the same devices used in their strategic nukes.

Listening now to Zelenskyy appeal for better air systems and sanctions if we won't establish a no-fly zone and think he understands the bigger geopolitical limitations involved. Framing the attacks as daily 9-11's that we could help resist through a no-fly zone, but then pivoting to what we could more realistically do is admirable.

The use of a tactical nuke almost automatically has to be treated as a local issue if at all possible because otherwise...I mean, who wants to be the one to destroy civilization? But that will depend partially on where they use it if they do, and the size. A 1- to 5- kTon warhead delivered from a system on the battlefield that is deployed far from Poland, then it will be globally shaking but it would be imaginable that we respond militarily. But if it is close to the Polish border, the fallout drifts into Poland,...

[honorentheos]

Oh...the video...it's an interesting appeal.

"Peace in your country no longer depends on only you and your people. It depends on the people next to you."