Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Jersey Girl]

Half a minute made me smile. Some languages are universally understood.

Ukrainian soldier gives US Volunteer a short class in PRONUNCIATION... and then they swear at Putin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mztpiPXdTd0

[Gadianton]

I read that Russia has cut off communications with the US. I hope this does not mean an escalation is imminent.

It might be that the persons we'd communicate with suddenly disappeared...

[MeDotOrg]

From the BBC

Russia says it will focus its invasion of Ukraine on "liberating" the east, signaling a possible shift in its strategy.

The defense ministry said that the initial aims of the war were complete, and that Russia had reduced the combat capacity of Ukraine.

Russia's invasion appeared aimed at swiftly capturing major cities and toppling the government.

But it has stalled in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance.

"The main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been carried out," said Sergei Rudskoy, head of the General Staff's main operations administration.

"The combat capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces have been substantially reduced, which allows us to concentrate our main efforts on achieving the main goal: the liberation of Donbas," he added, referring to an area in eastern Ukraine largely in the hands of Russian-backed separatists.

Russia's military has been bombarding and trying to encircle key Ukrainian cities such as the capital Kyiv, which Gen Rudskoy characterised as an attempt to tie down Ukraine's forces elsewhere in the country while Russia focuses on the east.

Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said his troops had landed "powerful blows" on Russia and called on Moscow to recognise the need for serious peace talks.

"By restraining Russia's actions, our defenders are leading the Russian leadership to a simple and logical idea: talk is necessary. Meaningful. Urgent. Fair. For the sake of the result, not for the sake of the delay," he said.

I think this could be interpreted as floating a trial balloon. Perhaps Putin would agree to withdraw from the rest of Ukraine if he were to 'liberate' the Donbas region. At this point Putin is saying "I can't walk away from the table without getting something." Perhaps there is a recognition that conquering and holding all of Ukraine is simply beyond the capabilities of the Russian army. (It also starts to bring into focus the cruelty and desperation of the Russian Army's actions in western Ukraine.)

Would giving Putin the Donbas be peace in our time? If I look at the situation strategically I think this is not the time to let Putin dictate terms. Time is not on his side. An additional month of sanctions, another month of body bags and missing soldiers, lowering morale on the battlefield and at home...his position will not get stronger.

But then I think all of that has to be balanced against the suffering going on in the rest of the country. How many tens of thousands of Ukrainians could die in a month? But could Zelenskyy negotiate the loss of Ukrainian territory and sell it to the country?

[Physics Guy]

It would sure be nice to punish Putin and not let him get even one damn thing short of a noose out of his adventure in mass murder. It would probably even save many lives in the future by making future despots think twice.

How many Ukrainian lives is that worth in the present? I don't think that's for anyone to decide but the people who are living those lives. Maybe they've done enough now already, and suffered enough, and they can step back and pass the torch to someone else. If they do, no-one else is in a position to blame them.

[Moksha]

I think this is one of the videos I viewed on the topic.

Natasha from Natasha's Adventures describes the situation in Russia as "like being on a bus with a drunk driver who has pulled into the oncoming lane and we cannot do anything about it." She also is dismayed by many Russians being buffaloed by the Russian version of Fox News and not knowing what is really going on.

[dantana]

many Russians being buffaloed by the Russian version of Fox News and not knowing what is really going on.

Good one Moksha.

[Jersey Girl]

Just over one minute. President Z spells out his terms and conditions. Hopefully there will be more discussion and information coming on this. This brief clip was the first I've seen on it.

Ukraine Prepared To Discuss Neutrality With Russia To End War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sQYJuDJHgk

[Jersey Girl]

I think this is the most important piece I've heard from Zelensky since this hellish war began. He knows exactly what is going on re: global politics. He understand the position of every country in terms of providing aid, what the limitations are and why. He says that Putin has been out of touch with the world for at least 2 decades and so his vision for the Russian v. Ukraine conflict is skewed because he doesn't understand the Ukraine he is fighting with. He offers insight to his own approach to leadership, strategies, and philosophies.

"I will stay with these people until the end." ~ Volodymyr Zelensky


War in Ukraine: The Economist interviews President Zelensky | The Economist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNjiRmIWtss

23+ minutes

[MeDotOrg]

Russia has been trying to romance China into providing aid, but China really has to evaluate the situation. If China defines the U.S. as the enemy, and the enemy of my enemy is my friend, then a partnership with Russia is something to logically consider.

The problem for China is that it is far more dependent upon a good relationship with the West than Russia. And China right now is in SERIOUS financial difficulty. Just like the U.S. in 2008, it started with a debt-fueled housing bubble. Think of the potential for corruption between rating companies and financial institutions in a country with the housing demand the size of China. Chew on this: China has, conservatively, 60 million unoccupied apartment units. That's an apartment for everyone in France. Most of the units cannot be occupied, they are shells of buildings without wiring or fire escapes or even stairs.

Deficit financing fueled deficit financing until the Government finally stepped in and said that developers had to pass 3 tiers of financial stress tests. Suddenly the music stopped. Companies ceased expanding, and a lot of debt was coming due, but the Government said the market couldn't borrow anymore. Evergrande Property Development has become the poster child of greedy overreach, failed to meet a bond payment in December. They could be the Lehman Brothers of the Chinese Real Estate market.

So at the same time Russian banks are charging 20% interest, Russia wants to borrow from China, which is desperately trying to keep solvent. The real estate market in China has been a considerable part of their financial success in the 21st Century. If China begins to supply Russia, they risk alienating the West at a time when they desperately need trade to prop up their sagging economy.

I could be wrong, but the cost/benefit ratio for China helping Russia is not too good.

[Gadianton]

Chew on this: China has, conservatively, 60 million unoccupied apartment units. That's an apartment for everyone in France

Not just unoccupied, but in many cases not fit for occupancy -- no utilities or maybe the building is just an unfinished skeleton or structurally unsound and can't be finished. Maybe it's an entire city nobody lives in yet. In China, there's nowhere to invest your money, so people resort to this. Well, the same thing happens everywhere even when there are good opportunities but the scale here is absurd. The nice thing about investing in anything based on attractive price movements but with blurry fundamentals is that as long as everyone is tacitly agreed not to look, you don't have to worry about things like earnings reports.

consider the result of America-Chinese trade, which probably has produced more wealth than the entire world up to that point. We got a bunch of cheap junk that goes straight to a landfill and they got millions of apartments they can't live in.