Kulinski had the same question. I think this is a big problem with the theory.Gadianton wrote: ↑Wed Jul 31, 2024 2:01 pmAnd then Obama threatened "article 25" (or whatever) where Harris Becomes president, but then holds off endorsing Harris for a long time because he had someone else in mind for president, all the while Biden KNEW Obama wanted someone else and therefore, could have called his bluff -- there are some bugs to work out.
But, in the broad strokes, I don't have a lot of skepticism regarding the plausibility of the scenario. I have no idea if it is true, and, as honorentheos correctly points out, Hersh has a spotty record. It could be that someone is playing him.
But, I think we should consider the place of Biden in the power structure of his party. He was chosen to be Obama's safe old white guy VP, not because he was viewed as a viable future president. Had he had any pull, he would have been running for pres at the end of Obama's presidency, but Obama talked him out of it, supposedly because Biden was still grieving the loss of his son.
On the other hand, it is well known that important people in the Obama camp thought that Biden was a lightweight and not presidential material. Biden's personal loss made it easy for Obama to talk him out of running. So, Hillary runs.
But Hillary loses. One of her obvious weaknesses happens to be blue collar men, Joe's people. So Joe is put back in play to prevent the second Trump term. Still, opinions of the Clintons and Obama's people have not fundamentally changed. Joe is to run, be president for one term, and hand it off to his VP when his term is over. The younger generation of Democrat leaders is also very unhappy, and only the threat of a second Trump term makes this at all palatable.
Unfortunately, people did not count on Trump running again, and they did not know how successful Biden's presidency would be. Biden probably felt like it would be a bad idea to forego running for the second term, since Democrats still had some of the same Rust Belt vulnerabilities and Joe won the first time. Meanwhile, Joe's age is increasingly showing, and he appears to lack the stamina and clarity to make it through a second term, perhaps even his first. When he drops the ball in the debate with Trump, his detractors seize the initiative and push him out.
In the run up to his departure from the race, there are questions that bother me. First, Biden was really digging in his heels. Second, we have no idea what was really going on with his mysterious illness. Third, the complaints about polls are just stupid. If you look at the history of polling, Biden was well within touching distance of prevailing. Every time someone points to his polling, it is an insult to our intelligence. We are supposed to believe that, while Reagan could be down 17 points in the polls and still win, Biden might be within the margin of error but would definitely lose?
Finally, I have become, since about 2007, increasingly wary of the coordinated messaging we see in the media and among political leaders. Right now, the message is "JP Vance is weird." All Democrats near a mic or camera are saying "weird." Occupy Wall Street was hit with "they don't know what they want." The mantra was repeated ad nauseam until everyone parroted it. Media people on the Center and Left, with few exceptions, were ready to band together to say Joe had to go, and then they all quickly banded together to thank him for his heroic departure. Before Biden pulled out, I heard marginal but persistent messages about how rank and file voters were opposed to Biden pulling out, while leaders of the party were lining up to end their support for Biden.
I am supposed to believe that these leaders were "just listening to their constituents"? I don't think it generally works that way. I think there is a lot of horsetrading and pushing to get people lined up. Lyndon B. Johnson on the phone with the carrot and the stick type of stuff. I think it is kind of naïve to imagine that this happened in the way that the coordinated "messaging" is selling. I don't know whether Obama threatened the old guy with the 25th or what, but I do believe that he was probably feeling strong pressure to get out, and that Obama and his people, the Clintons, and other party leaders were the pushers/bullies. Who do you think had the power to work the financial pressure?