The List

[canpakes]

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OK … America has muddled through the first 100 days of the Trump Administration. How are things starting to shape up, economically?
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Real GDP unexpectedly declined in the first quarter of 2025

Real GDP fell in the year's first quarter at an annualized rate of 0.3%.
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That doesn't mean a recession, but Americans have been worried one will happen this year.
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New data shows how the economy has looked in the first three months of Trump's second term.

• US real gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year.
• The last contraction was in the first quarter of 2022, which triggered fears of a recession that didn't materialize. It's also far below the growth rate of 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024.
• "The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending," a Bureau of Economic Analysis news release said. "These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports."

The new report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed how the economy has performed during the first three months of President Donald Trump's second presidency. Since the inauguration, the administration has made cuts to the federal government and announced tariffs, including on key trade partners like China and automobiles and some automobile parts.

"Anytime you see a contraction, or the opposite of economic growth, it is a concern," Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told Business Insider before the GDP release. "But ultimately the question also is about the outlook."

Hamrick added there are global headwinds to the US economy — tariffs and trade. "Tariffs present an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to employment," he said.

Federal spending fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1% in the first quarter of 2025.

The new report provides insight into how businesses prepared for tariffs. While imports increased 41.3%, exports increased 1.8%.

Personal consumption expenditures also increased 1.8%, a smaller gain than in the last quarter of 2024. Gross private domestic investment climbed 21.9% in the first quarter, with fixed investment in equipment surging 22.5% after a decline in the last quarter of 2024.

Stock futures were down after the report.

"While the softer Q1 GDP figures were likely significantly skewed to the downside by the record widening of the U.S. trade deficit, the economic outlook remains pessimistic and uncertain," Ryan Weldon, investment director and portfolio manager at IFM Investors, said.

Weldon added that the "negative impacts of the current tariff policy will only compound every day there are no resolutions, as imports stagnate on tepid demand and small and medium businesses are forced to make tough decisions on employment."

Several hard data measures haven't reflected policy changes just yet. Still, the back and forth on tariff announcements and suspensions have contributed to people feeling worried or like they must spring into action, which has been reflected in some recent data.

In March, retail sales increased at motor vehicles and parts dealers. Consumers could face higher prices there and other areas of the economy as dealerships and business owners make tariff-related decisions. Inflation has continued to slow down, but people are worried that it could accelerate because of tariffs. Hamrick said the "economy is being affected by both the perceived and anticipated impacts of tariffs."

David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said in a note before the GDP release that "without a quick resolution to the trade war, imports, exports and inventories all look set to fall sharply." He added people may slow down on making purchases, and companies may make some business changes like scaling back on hiring.

"Further federal cutbacks should prevent an overall government spending bounce-back, while tourism will likely be hit by the international reaction to the Administration's policies," Kelly said. "Given all of this, real GDP growth could be very slow, or even negative, over at least the first three quarters of 2025."

Wednesday's release reflects an advance estimate, so there's a chance real GDP could be revised in the coming months. While the new GDP report doesn't mean a recession, there are concerns about how the economy will evolve. "This is a huge wildcard in the face of a high degree of uncertainty felt by consumers and business leaders all of which undermines their ability to make decisions including on spending which would lend support to the economy," Hamrick said.
US real gross domestic product fell at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year.

The last contraction was in the first quarter of 2022, which triggered fears of a recession that didn't materialize. It's also far below the growth rate of 2.4% in the last quarter of 2024.

"The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending," a Bureau of Economic Analysis news release said. "These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports."
…

https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gro ... omy-2025-4

[canpakes]

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America Last. Even the veterans.

Trump's VA strands thousands of veterans by ending a key mortgage program

MAY 1, 20255:00 AM ET
By Chris Arnold

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, as of Thursday, has ended a new mortgage-rescue program that so far has helped about 20,000 veterans avoid foreclosure and keep their homes.

The move leaves millions of military veterans with far worse options than most other American homeowners if they run into trouble paying their home loans. And it comes at a time when nearly 90,000 VA loans are seriously past due, with 33,000 of those already in the foreclosure process, according to the data and analytics firm ICE.

At issue is the VA Servicing Purchase program, or VASP. It was put in place during the Biden administration after missteps by the VA left homeowners with no affordable way to catch up on their VA-backed home loans if they fell behind. VASP rolls the homeowners' missed payments into a new, low-interest rate loan that the VA then owns outright. With today's higher mortgage rates of around 7%, it is often the only affordable option for homeowners with VA loans.

But Republicans in Congress have been critical of the VA Servicing Purchase
program, saying it puts too much taxpayer money at risk. In a statement this week to NPR, the VA said, "[As of May 1,] the program, which was unilaterally created by the Biden Administration and lacks congressional authority, will stop accepting new enrollees."

"With the expiration of VASP, tens of thousands of Veterans and their families are now at significant risk of losing their homes," said Mike Calhoun, president of the nonprofit Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan organization that advocates for the financial rights of underserved communities, including veterans.

His group is urging Congress to quickly pass legislation to create a new program to fill the gap, and he said, "VA should extend VASP until this program is up and running."

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/01/nx-s1-53 ... osure-vasp

[canpakes]

May 28 (Reuters) - The Trump administration has canceled a contract awarded to Moderna (MRNA.O), opens new tab for the late-stage development of its bird flu vaccine for humans, as well as the right to purchase shots, the drugmaker announced on Wednesday.

Shares of Moderna were flat in after-market trading.

Moderna in January was awarded $590 million by the Biden administration to advance the development of its bird flu vaccine, and support the expansion of clinical studies for up to five additional subtypes of pandemic influenza

This was in addition to $176 million awarded by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) last year to complete the late-stage development and testing of a pre-pandemic mRNA-based vaccine against the H5N1 avian influenza.
HHS told Reuters earlier this year that it was reviewing agreements made by the Biden administration for vaccine production.

"The cancellation means that the government is discarding what could be one of the most effective and rapid tools to combat an avian influenza outbreak," said Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, adding that it is the opposite approach Trump took with Operation Warp Speed to combat COVID-19.

An HHS spokesperson said that after a comprehensive internal review, the agency had determined that the project did not meet the scientific standards or safety expectations required for continued federal investment.

Bird flu has infected 70 people, most of them farm workers, over the past year as it has spread aggressively among cattle herds and poultry flocks.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has questioned the use of vaccines and earlier this year drew censure from some in the U.S. Congress after he suggested in a television interview that poultry farmers should let the bird flu spread unchecked through their flocks to study chickens who did not contract it.

Moderna said it plans to explore alternatives for late-stage development and manufacturing of the vaccine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... reddit.com

[canpakes]

Apparently, the Trump Administration is having some trouble matching the deportation rate of the Biden Administration, and Stephen Miller is pretty mad about that.

Stephen Miller Totally Lost it and Yelled at Immigration Officials for Not Making Enough Arrests

Leigh Kimmins
Updated May 28 2025 1:15PM EDT

Stephen Miller “laid into” immigration officials for not arresting enough people during a fiery meeting about super-charging the Trump administration’s mass-deportation effort, Axios reports.

The White House deputy chief of staff is an immigration hard-liner, noted as the architect of several of Trump’s immigration policies, including the Muslim travel ban and the family separation policy, but sources have told Axios that he is unhappy with the rate at which criminals are being rounded up and shipped off.

He reportedly lost it during a May 21 meeting, ordering Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to triple their arrests. Two sources told Axios that they believed their jobs were in “jeopardy” if they failed to comply.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was also at the explosive meeting, although she reportedly maintained her cool.

Deporting unauthorized immigrants was a key campaign promise of Donald Trump. However, Trump’s average daily rate of removals is around one percent below what his predecessor Joe Biden’s average daily rate of removals was, according to TRAC Immigration. Axios reports that the current administration’s deportation rate is “roughly the same” as it was in Biden’s last year in office.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/stephen-m ... h-arrests/

[canpakes]

Make Americans Gaslit Again.

National parks ordered to police 'negative' history under Trump directive

By Olivia Hebert,
Updated May 23, 2025 4:30 p.m.

The Trump administration is enlisting national park visitors into the Republican president’s fight to rewrite American history, with a new directive that forces all park units to display signs that encourage guests to report any information that is critical of American history.

On May 20, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum directed all park units to display the signs to comply with President Donald Trump’s earlier executive order, which claims that U.S. history has been distorted by ideology and seeks to counter what it describes as revisionist narratives that portray the country’s past in a negative light.

Burgum’s order directs federal agencies and cultural institutions to remove content that “inappropriately disparage Americans past or living,” and to instead highlight the nation’s progress and achievements. It also calls for the removal of what it terms “improper ideology” from museums, monuments and public exhibits under federal control.

In a statement released in March, the American Historical Association, or AHA, condemned the order, defending the importance of historical integrity in public institutions and places. Thirty-six other organizations also signed on to the AHA statement.

“The stories that have shaped our past include not only elements that make us proud but also aspects that make us acutely aware of tragedies in our nation’s history,” they wrote. “No person, no nation, is perfect, and we should all — as individuals and as nations — learn from our imperfections.”

They added, “Patriotic history celebrates our nation’s many great achievements. It also helps us grapple with the less grand and more painful parts of our history.”

https://www.sfgate.com/california-parks ... 343308.php

[canpakes]

Record beef prices raise Memorial Day cookout costs

Tom Polansek and Heather Schlitz
May 23, 202511:48 AM MDT

Memorial Day cookout costs rise with beef prices
Bonelss beef trimmings imports from Brazil hit record levels
Cattle imports from Mexico hit by screwworm pest
CHICAGO, May 23 (Reuters) - Beef prices set records last month at U.S. grocery stores, and economists expect they will climb further as demand increases during the summer grilling season that traditionally begins with cookouts on Memorial Day on Monday.

Higher prices hit consumers who are increasingly nervous about the economic impact of President Donald Trump's trade policy and after Washington halted cattle imports from Mexico over a pest called New World screwworm, which could hike up beef prices further by tightening the cattle supply.

One consumer feeling the pinch is DeAndrea Chavis, an artificial intelligence analyst in Raleigh, North Carolina, who buys ground beef nearly every week to preparation tacos and other dishes for lunch but lately is making smaller portions because of rising prices.

Chavis said she has seen lean ground beef prices climb above $9 per pound from $6 to $8 in recent months. She is planning to keep hamburgers on the menu for a cookout next week but may have more hot dogs in the mix to control costs.

"Ground beef is supposed to be a cheaper option," said Chavis, 28. "Now that is even starting to add up."

Ground chuck prices in April reached a record $6 per pound, up 14% from a year ago, after farmers slashed their cattle herds to a 74-year low due to a years-long drought that reduced grazing lands.

However, demand for beef is expected to reach a 39-year high as consumers stomach higher prices, Rabobank senior analyst Lance Zimmerman said.

A Memorial Day cookout for 10 people eating a mix of foods, including one cheeseburger and chicken sandwich apiece, will cost an estimated $103, up 4.2% from last year, according to Rabobank. Hamburger meat prices jumped 6.4%, the bank said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/record ... reddit.com

[canpakes]

The fellow who has spent a decade making millions of dollars spreading fear and conspiracy theories about vaccines has decided to fire every member of the US. Vaccine Advisory Committee on the claim that there’s now public mistrust of vaccines.

US Health Secretary Kennedy guts vaccine advisory committee

By Ahmed Aboulenein, Michael Erman and Julie Steenhuysen
June 10, 20251:55 AM MDT

- Long-time vaccine skeptic Kennedy criticizes ACIP
- Experts say dismissal undermines confidence in health agencies
- ACIP's next meeting set for June 25-27 in Atlanta
- ACIP members are already vetted for conflicts of interest

WASHINGTON, June 9 (Reuters) - Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has fired all 17 members of a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention panel of vaccine experts and is in the process of replacing them, his department said on Monday, drawing protest from many vaccine scientists.

The move is the most far-reaching in a series of actions by Kennedy, a long-time vaccine skeptic, to reshape U.S. regulation of vaccines, food and medicine. Scientists and experts said the changes to the vaccine panel, which recommends how vaccines are used and by whom, would undermine public confidence in health agencies.

Kennedy promised the move would raise public confidence.

"Today we are prioritizing the restoration of public trust above any specific pro- or anti-vaccine agenda," Kennedy said in a statement from the Department of Health and Human Services.

Kennedy has for years sown doubt about the safety and efficacy of vaccines, but he pledged to maintain the country's existing vaccine standards to secure his appointment in President Donald Trump's administration.

The Food and Drug Administration, which is overseen by Kennedy's department, has approved a number of vaccines during his tenure despite concerns over his stances. Even so, at least one senior Republican member of Congress expressed doubts about the changes in the panel.

Kennedy said the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is rife with conflicts and has never turned down a vaccine, even though the decision to approve vaccines rests with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The CDC panel provides guidance to the CDC on which groups of people would most benefit from an already-approved vaccine.

"That's a tragedy," said former FDA Chief Scientist Jesse Goodman. "This is a highly professional group of scientists and physicians and others... It's the kind of political meddling that will reduce confidence rather than increase confidence."

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America called Kennedy's action concerning for public health.

"Upending the ACIP membership increases uncertainty and vaccine skepticism, undermining the health gains achieved through vaccination," the industry body said in a statement late on Monday.
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All 17 ACIP members were appointed under former President Joe Biden's administration, including 13 in 2024, HHS said. Without their removal, Trump's administration would not have been able to choose a majority of the committee until 2028.

"This is not a political committee, it's never been partisan," said Dorit Reiss, a vaccine law expert at UC Law San Francisco. "It's an expert committee. Presidents have never been involved in ACIP membership."

The decision drew criticism from Democrats in Congress, and one key Republican expressed concern.

"Of course, now the fear is that the ACIP will be filled up with people who know nothing about vaccines except suspicion," said Republican U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy in a post on X. "I've just spoken with Secretary Kennedy, and I'll continue to talk with him to ensure this is not the case."

Cassidy, a doctor from Louisiana who had expressed wariness about Kennedy's anti-vaccine views before clearing the path for him to become the nation's top health official, said at the time he had received assurances Kennedy would protect existing vaccination programs.

The CDC panel will convene its next meeting June 25-27 at CDC headquarters in Atlanta, the department said.

Vetting new panel members typically takes months, said one expert with close ties to the committee, who expressed doubts the newly appointed panel would be able to meet on time unless Kennedy and his team "have been working in the shadows" to onboard them months ahead of the announcement.

Kennedy has drawn condemnation from health officials for his vaccine policies including what they say is a weak endorsement of the measles shots during an outbreak that has infected more than 1,000 mostly unvaccinated people and killed three.

He announced last month the government was dropping its recommendation that healthy children and pregnant women should receive COVID shots, sidestepping the typical process.

Traditionally, once the FDA approves vaccines for sale to the public, ACIP's role is to review data in a public meeting and vote on vaccine recommendations, which are then sent to the CDC director to sign off.

The Affordable Care Act generally requires insurers to cover vaccines that are listed on the CDC vaccine schedules for adults and children. The recommendations also determine which vaccines the CDC's Vaccines for Children program will provide free of charge to those without insurance.

https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 025-06-09/

[canpakes]

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I guess if we have to choose between (1) assisting with the recovery of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russian forces, or (2) appeasing Putin, then this Administration is going to pick the second option. Every time.

Bipartisan House Members Urge Secretary Rubio to Save Program Tracking Kidnapped Ukrainian Children

June 11, 2025

This follows a bipartisan appropriations request to reunite children with their families while holding war criminals accountable.
Contact: Alexis.Torres@mail.house.gov

Washington, D.C.—Today, U.S. Representative Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), an active member of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, led a bipartisan group of colleagues in urging State Secretary Marco Rubio to maintain funding for the Conflict Observatory at Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab. Months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Conflict Observatory began collecting, analyzing, and preserving information related to Russian war crimes, including Putin’s abduction and concealment of Ukrainian children within Russia’s adoption system.

“Without your immediate action, the Conflict Observatory will be forced to shutter by July 1st, and its ongoing research identifying more kidnapped Ukrainian children will end. Although the Conflict Observatory’s database of children has been transferred to Europol, it will quickly become out-of-date in a matter of weeks—hindering efforts to ensure every child is returned to family. No explanation has been given to us as to why funding for the Conflict Observatory has been terminated. We are part of a bipartisan effort to seek the relatively modest amount of appropriations necessary to continue this invaluable work during the next fiscal year. We ask that you utilize your authority to keep the Conflict Observatory open until our appropriation request can become law,” wrote the lawmakers.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration illegally terminated Congressionally authorized funding for the Conflict Observatory before reinstating a six-week funding allotment to transfer all research and data to Ukrainian organizations and Europol, the European Union’s agency for law enforcement cooperation. The lawmakers note that Europol and other organizations do not have the specific expertise and resources needed to successfully navigate open-source intelligence and Russian websites to locate missing children.

“Research must continue unabated to maintain the rigorous process of identifying every Ukrainian child abducted by Russia. The Conflict Observatory has verified that at least 19,500 children have been forcibly deported from occupied areas of Ukraine, funneled into reeducation camps or adopted by Russian families, and their identities erased. The actual number of children remaining in Russia is presumably significantly higher, with a Russian official stating in July 2023 that Russia had brought 700,000 children from conflict zones in Ukraine to Russia. Many kidnapped Ukrainian children have not yet been identified due to the Kremlin changing their names, place of birth, and date of birth,” the lawmakers continued.

To ensure the United States upholds its core democratic values, Rep. Doggett and more than 50 colleagues submitted a bipartisan request last month to the House Appropriations Subcommittee on National Security, Department of State and Related Programs calling for no less than $8 million to be included in its Fiscal Year 2026 government funding bill to continue tracking kidnapped Ukrainian children. With President Trump cruelly terminating funding for critical foreign and domestic programs, the forced closure of the Conflict Observatory is yet another abhorrent example of this administration dismantling our nation’s status as a global superpower.

https://doggett.house.gov/media/press-r ... -kidnapped