Northam vs. Gillispie thread

[_EAllusion]

Election next Tuesday. Northam is still a reasonably decent favorite, but Gillispie could easily win without it being shocking. It's a 66/33 situation. It's a close election with a large range of polling.

You just know that dozens of think pieces explaining that Northam lost because the Dems didn't embrace or run hard enough on the author's policy preferences are already prewritten.

Gillispie's rather overtly racist campaign that Northam couldn't figure out how to respond to augurs what 2018 is going to be like.

[_Xenophon]

I'm worried everyone will point at that Quinnipiac poll that had Northam up 17 among likely voters and draw some crazy conclusions. As you said the polling is widely ranged, especially over the last month, and when we look at polls on issues instead of on candidates I can easily see a path for Gillespie. He is winning pretty handily in job creation and crime (those MS13 ads seemed to have had the desired effect).

I noticed in the 2 recent polls where Gillespie was up (particularly the Hampton) there were a fair number of undecided voters. I haven't seen much analysis on it but do they suspect that those undecideds may fall to Gillespie, mirroring the 2016 election trend?

[_EAllusion]

The Hampton poll looked like straight garbage and they have a poor track record. At the same time, there's no way Northam is up 17. They cancel each other out.

Polls are finding a typical number of undecideds. The outier polls find more. The polling range suggests an error greater than Northam's mean lead has a decent chance of happening. The error could just as easily be in his favor, but Dem anxiety over losing is laser focused on it breaking against him.

There's going to be a lot of belly-aching if he loses, because the Trump parallels are going to feel too close to home. And he definitely could lose.

If Gillespie wins, that does mean the Republican gerrymander advantage is even stronger come 2022. You also will see more voter suppression of Dem blocs. That's the most significant thing at stake.

[_EAllusion]

Northam has run a comically inept campaign. Progressives will be out for blood if he loses.

I assume that Republicans, and this board's gang of conserva-trolls, will try to spin it as validation of everything Trump and the GOP is doing.

That Gillispie will have won with an overtly racist campaign will be the real gut punch. America shouldn't be moving backwards on race.

[_Xenophon]

That Gillispie will have won with an overtly racist campaign will be the real gut punch. America shouldn't be moving backwards on race.

Painful indeed. Also, in before "you don't seriously mean that all Gillespie voters are racists"

[_The CCC]

Show me what they do and I'll know what they really believe. Voting for a overt racist shows me what they really believe.

[_subgenius]

Election next Tuesday. Northam is still a reasonably decent favorite, but Gillispie could easily win without it being shocking. It's a 66/33 situation. It's a close election with a large range of polling.

You just know that dozens of think pieces explaining that Northam lost because the Dems didn't embrace or run hard enough on the author's policy preferences are already prewritten.

Gillispie's rather overtly racist campaign that Northam couldn't figure out how to respond to augurs what 2018 is going to be like.

The fact that for almost 2 decades (and blatantly since 2008) Virginia has been trending Democrat due to the white flight from DC is not any reason to portend anything for this race.

But have faith, the Democrats are still very much capable of losing elections that they believe they deserve to win.

[_Dr. Shades]

For those wondering--like I was before I did a google search--these two are running for the governorship of Virginia, with Northam as the Democrat and Gillespie as the Republican.

(Information that might've been helpful to include in the opening post, methinks.)

[_EAllusion]

For those wondering--like I was before I did a google search--these two are running for the governorship of Virginia, with Northam as the Democrat and Gillespie as the Republican.

(Information that might've been helpful to include in the opening post, methinks.)

This is not at all an obscure subject. At a certain point, I think it is appropriate to trust my readers to have some basic awareness of the news. Would you prefer that every thread about Donald Trump explain that he is president of the United States, a large country located in North America?

[_beastie]

Northam has run a comically inept campaign. Progressives will be out for blood if he loses.

I assume that Republicans, and this board's gang of conserva-trolls, will try to spin it as validation of everything Trump and the GOP is doing.

That Gillispie will have won with an overtly racist campaign will be the real gut punch. America shouldn't be moving backwards on race.

Yeah, it's been a disgusting campaign with lots of dog whistles.

And when Northam punched back with an ad showing Gillespie and Trump superimposed on the Charlottesville tiki torch monsters, the republicans still squealed foul.

by the way, I wanted Perriello. He voted for Obamacare knowing it would cost him the next election, because he believed it was the right thing to do. If Northam loses, plenty of dems will be upset that the powers-that-be avoided the more populist candidate yet again.