Friday Election Updates

[Res Ipsa]

The state of the race for President:

Wisconsin (10 EV, called for Biden): Biden +.06% (+20,534) All ballots had to be received on election day. After totals are certified, any party can request and get a recount if the margin is less than 1%

Michigan (16 EV, called for Biden): Biden +3% (+147,897) All ballots had to be received by election day. Automatic recount if margin is less than 2000 votes. Recount request may be granted if the requesting party has a ""reasonable chance of winning the election."

Pennsylvania: (20 EV, called only by Decision Desk HQ) Biden +.02% (+13,662). Left to count: Tough to piece together. Maybe 100K mail in and provisional ballots. Plus an unknown number of late-arriving mail in ballots and military and overseas ballots. Final deadline for receipt of all ballots is today at 5:00 p.m. (Th deadline for regular mail-in ballots is being disputed -- it could be changed to day of election). Automatic recount if margin is .5% or less. Individual voters can request a recount in their county if they submit an affidavit concerning irregularities they witnessed. Deadline is 5 days after election.

Georgia: (16 EV, no calls) Biden >0.1% (+1603) Left to count: about 25K votes, comprising regular absentees, overseas and military, provisionals, and rejected ballots that have an opportunity to cure defects. Candidates can request a recount within two days after certification if the margin is .5% or less.

North Carolina (15 EV, no calls) Trump +1.4% (+76,737) Left to count: Potentially 160K mail-in and provisional ballots. Deadline for receipt of mail-in ballots is 11/12. No updates expected unto 11/12.

Arizona: (11 EV, called for Biden by Fox and AP): Biden +1.3% (+40,954) Left to count: about 200,000. I think that includes all types of ballot, but not sure. Trump needs to win about 60% of the remaining ballots to catch Biden, but he has been underperforming that number. Automatic recount for margins of 0.1% or less. No other recounts permitted, but voters can file challenges to the result in state court.

Nevada: (6 EV, no calls) Biden +1.6% (+20,137). Left to count: 150K late arriving mail-in and provisional ballots. Most are from Clark County, which is heavily democratic. Clark County will report results at 7:00 ET today. Deadline for receipt of ballots is 11/10. No automatic recount. Parties and voters may request a recount within 3 days of certification.

Elections are complicated.

[Res Ipsa]

Updates:

The GA Secretary of State says there will be a recount. Biden has increased his lead to 4266.

PA: Biden increased lead to 16,784. This total does not include the disputed ballots received after 8:00 p.m. on election day.

NV: Biden increased lead to 22,657.

AZ: Biden's lead decreased to 38,455. I think we're still expecting an additional reported 60-70K from Maricopa County at 9:00 pm ET. May we'll be able to recalculate Trump's target percentage after that.

Otherwise, its drip, drip, drip.

[Jersey Girl]

Otherwise, its drip, drip, drip.

Isn't that the description of a form of water torture?

[Moksha]

Even when the votes are counted there will be recounts, court challenges, and possible Trump supporter uprisings.

[MeDotOrg]

I think it's all over but the shouting (and the litigating). The fat lady may not be singing, but she's waiting in the wings and clearing her throat.

So what happens now? One of the Cable News Talking Heads said that when Donald Trump picks up the phone now, he's not just calling as the President. He's calling as the lame duck President. Right now Republicans are re-calibrating their political futures without Donald Trump. Some people are saying he might run in 2024, but I think Trump's the legal battles will soon shut down that talk.

What still concerns me is that we have a narcissist whose bubble of invincibility has been shattered. He will swing between the poles of despondency and rage. I worry about Birx, Fauci, and Christopher Wray.

And while the country's Covid-19 rate will be skyrocketing, Trump's primary concern will be his own political survival.

[MeDotOrg]

I think it's all over but the shouting (and the litigating). The fat lady may not be singing, but she's waiting in the wings and clearing her throat. Trump has been infamous for breaking with the norms. The 'norm' is that the loser concedes, but the results are what they are, no matter if the loser concedes or not. The United States does not need Donald Trump's permission to change Presidents.

So what happens now? One of the Cable News Talking Heads said that when Donald Trump picks up the phone now, he's not just calling as the President. He's calling as the lame duck President. Right now Republicans are re-calibrating their political futures without Donald Trump. Some people are saying he might run in 2024, but I think Trump's the legal battles will soon shut down that talk.

What still concerns me is that we have a narcissist whose bubble of invincibility has been shattered. He will swing between the poles of despondency and rage. I worry about Birx, Fauci, and Christopher Wray.

And while the country's Covid-19 rate will be skyrocketing, Trump's primary concern will be his own political survival.

[subgenius]

Just 2 quick points:
1.In Antrim County, ballots were counted for Democrats that were meant for Republicans, causing a 6,000-vote swing against our candidates. The county clerk came forward and said, 'Tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the votes,'" Cox said in a Friday news conference. "We have now discovered that 47 counties used this same software in the same capacity.


and
2.

[Res Ipsa]

Otherwise, its drip, drip, drip.

Isn't that the description of a form of water torture?

Yes. In our household it’s known as the Ms. Ipsa Water Torture.

[Res Ipsa]

Ok, Maricopa County, AZ updated its totals, adding about 72k votes. Biden lead shrunk again, to 29,861. Time for some math. The SoS estimates 173K total ballots remain to be counted. What percentage of the remaining ballots does Trump need to catch Biden? Well, he needs about 30k to catch up, and another 71k that represents half of the rest. So, he needs 101/173. That’s about 58%. If we assume Biden gets the rest, that’s 58-42, or a 16 percentage point spread.

How did this last batch of 72K turn out? It was 53-44 Trump. (Third parties got 3%) That’s a 9 percentage point spread. So, Trump is currently eating into Biden’s lead, but not fast enough to catch him. Still, it’s close, so bit what’s left of those nails.

A little bird reported that no new PA totals are expected until tomorrow.

[Res Ipsa]

Just 2 quick points:
1.[url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... wy8YrFttgo]In Antrim County, ballots were counted for Democrats that were meant for Republicans, causing a 6,000-vote swing against our candidates. The county clerk came forward and said, 'Tabulating software glitched and caused a miscalculation of the votes,'" Cox said in a Friday news conference. "We have now discovered that 47 counties used this same software in the same capacity.

If you only took the time to verify facts. The “software glitch” was not a glitch at all. It was human error. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.woodtv ... tware/amp/

Lazy, lazy, lazy.