How good is Nat Silver forecast?

[_aussieguy55]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... id=irpromo

It seems Nat Siver forecast is that the Democrats will control the lower house. Do you agree. How much effect does the GOP gerrymander have?

[_Brackite]

Nate Silver is now giving the Democrats an 84.5% chance of taking back the House, which sounds about right. The Democrats need to pick up about 24 Congressional districts to win back the House. Democrats are extremely likely going to pick up wins in Iowa's 1st Congressional district, Arizona's 2nd Congressional district and California's 49th Congressional district. Democrats are very likely going to pick up California's 10th Congressional district, California's 45th Congressional district and/or California's 48th Congressional district. Democrats will likely pick up several more Congressional districts in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Florida.

[_moksha]

I doubt this will happen. If it did, I suspect bands of raging Republicans would be rioting in the streets, spurred on by encouragement through Trump and Fox News.

[_Water Dog]

I doubt this will happen. If it did, I suspect bands of raging Republicans would be rioting in the streets, spurred on by encouragement through Trump and Fox News.

I'm not sure I follow. You're saying the election is rigged and Republicans won't allow Democrats to win even if they should actually win based on voter opinion? And that, moreover, if Republicans lose the House, that they'll take to the streets and riot?

[_subgenius]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=irpromo

It seems Nat Siver forecast is that the Democrats will control the lower house. Do you agree. How much effect does the GOP gerrymander have?

i don't agree, and don't have patience to explain gerrymandering and its real effect to you.

[_aussieguy55]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... 9e0e5b06a3

I agree with Bill Maher the Democrats have to start playing dirty themselves.

Nat Silver also argues that some Governorships will fall to the Democrats, No wonder Lindsay Graham states they need more angry white men.

[_aussieguy55]

I doubt this will happen. If it did, I suspect bands of raging
Republicans would be rioting in the streets, spurred on by encouragement through Trump and Fox News.

I'm not sure I follow. You're saying the election is rigged and Republicans won't allow Democrats to win even if they should actually win based on voter opinion? And that, moreover, if Republicans lose the House, that they'll take to the streets and riot?

Have you seem the angry faces of those in the Trump crowd giving the press the middle finger? deplorable s

[_aussieguy55]

"Silver has built one of the best models out there. It’s accurate, consistent, and totally statistical. One advantage of being totally statistical is that his model can be replicated. This piece will review the process, explaining how Silver built his model, what his results mean and how to use them going forward."

https://greenbookblog.org/2018/01/16/th ... r-does-it/

[_MeDotOrg]

I don't think the Democrats will pick up 39 seats. I think it will be closer to 20.

It's a weird situation: There are highly partisan bases on both sides. Both bases are motivated and will turn out. But the motivation of moderates and independents could determine the outcome.

[_aussieguy55]

Watching a Ted Cruz meeting. They were all grey haired folks.