What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

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_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

Jersey Girl wrote:How do you know that Trump authorized the payoffs?


Because Trump said they came from him.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 064933002/

But the filing detailed that they did, in fact, come from the campaign. Which is illegal. Which is a felony.

eta: So. This is where we're at with this Administration so far:

Image

- Doc
Last edited by Guest on Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_Jersey Girl
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Jersey Girl wrote:How do you know that Trump authorized the payoffs?


Because Trump said they came from him.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 064933002/

But the filing detailed that they did, in fact, come from the campaign. Which is illegal. Which is a felony.

- Doc


I forgot all about that. Thanks!
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
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_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

Jersey Girl wrote: I forgot all about that. Thanks!


No worries. This is one of the frustrations that Tillerson, Kelly, and Giuliani had/have with Trump. He won't shut his own goddamn mouth because he's completely detached from reality. Things aren't going well for him, or his family. It's only going to get worse because none of them understand they're not smarter than the SDNY or FBI.

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_Jersey Girl
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Given the chart that you posted, it looks like he drained the swamp and replaced the inhabitants.
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
_Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Doctor CamNC4Me »

Jersey Girl wrote:Given the chart that you posted, it looks like he drained the swamp and replaced the inhabitants.


Back to Cohen and how it relates to whether or not Trump makes it to 2020 (and inb4 some insanely stupid comment by subgenius):

- 3-5'ish years in prison because he's a criminal.
- Trump directly named in illegal activity, multiple felonies(Individual 1).
- Cohen was trying to establish Putin + Trump meeting while arranging Trump Tower Moscow during the election.
- Mueller really doesn't like it when people lie.
- Lying to the public matters to Mueller and was emphasized as a negative.
- Cohen spilled on Trump-Russia (and Mueller had corroboration)

I'm not sure how long Don Jr. plans on staying in Canada, but I'm fairly certain, thanks to Cohen's help, he's on the firing line next with regard to Russia.

- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
_Molok
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Molok »

DJT jr, has already admitted to attempting to collide with Russia to get dirt on Hillary. The President is on video asking Russia to hack the DNC. Only a moron or morally bankrupt jackass would bother saying there’s no evidence of collusion.
_Chap
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Chap »

DrC is doing an excellent job of pointing out how bad is the position of Trump and his family as the walls close in on them.

As people have made clear, Mueller is using the usual 'flip them one by one' tactics that have historically led to the successful prosecution of other 'families' in the past. The only difference from those cases seems to be that the heads of Mafia 'families' usually had the brains to follow advice from their expensive lawyers that they should keep their mouths shut. But as things go from bad to worse, Trump tweets away, and none of what he tweets gives his and his family's future defense lawyers an easier job, to put it mildly.

So what's going on? Is it that

(a) Trump no longer has anyone close to him who dares to tell him the truth about how risky things are getting?

or

(b) Trump does have such people, but he is too dumb and reckless to pay them any heed?
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_Jersey Girl
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Jersey Girl »

Chap wrote:
So what's going on? Is it that

(a) Trump no longer has anyone close to him who dares to tell him the truth about how risky things are getting?

or

(b) Trump does have such people, but he is too dumb and reckless to pay them any heed?


That's a tough call. He's obviously making it up as he goes along, a tactic he's probably relied on all his life. Regarding people close to him that dare tell him the truth. He doesn't strike me as a man who has close friends or associates. His long time "fixer" has already rolled over on him--who does that leave? It's probably down to his family and I'd wager that they have no more clue than he does. They'e all about CYA (not very good at it) with the possible exception of Melania who doesn't seem to be directly involved, who probably sees clearly where this is going and will simply ride it out to the end. Her main priority is protecting her son.

I don't know a lot about politics, but from a behavioral perspective, these are the dynamics that I think are at work. Trump is about the brand, the window dressing, the image. It's all superficial. There's little to no substance nor depth to the man.

I have no reason to believe that he has deeply meaningful or emotionally/psychologically intimate trusted relationships in the way that you or I think of them. His relationships appear to be nothing more than transactional.

Narcissism 101.
Failure is not falling down but refusing to get up.
Chinese Proverb
_Chap
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _Chap »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Chap wrote:
So what's going on? Is it that

(a) Trump no longer has anyone close to him who dares to tell him the truth about how risky things are getting?

or

(b) Trump does have such people, but he is too dumb and reckless to pay them any heed?


... His relationships appear to be nothing more than transactional.

...


I think your response is on the button.

Cushioned by a huge inheritance, which (in real terms) he appears to have done little to increase above what an index-tracker fund would have yielded, Trump has never had to face the real threats that this world can pose, threats that make us face up to the existence of those things called hard facts and make plans on that basis.

He has lived his life in an environment insulated by wads of money, which has protected him to the extent that he has never really had to develop the skills of facing up to unpleasant and unavoidable reality and working out what to do. To take one example, a life-lesson common to many men of his age and class has passed him by: thanks to those awful bone spurs created by paying a classy physician, he never had the wonderfully focussing and clarifying experience of having his sergeant yell at him 'Lieutenant, we've taken six casualties already, and the VC are fair set to surround us. So what are your orders?'. And then everybody looks at you, and you know their lives and yours depend on what you do and say next ... and the incoming fire is hard, real, and lethal, and can't be imagined away ...

That kind of problem can't be solved by declaring bankruptcy, or getting the National Enquirer to buy the story and bury it. And tweeting whatever makes you feel good won't hack it either.

But that's what the very stable genius in the White House is like.
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_EAllusion
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Re: What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 20

Post by _EAllusion »

While being wealthy notoriously negatively impacts empathy, lots of people grow up wealthy without becoming Donald Trump-grade psychopaths. He probably is like this for reasons other than his wealth. Being born into wealth just helped shield him from consequences and allow him to fail upward.
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