What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

[_MeDotOrg]

I'm curious to know what others think are Trump's chances of surviving politically until 2020? Personally I think somewhere between 30-40% I know there's a comfortable Republican majority in the Senate, so a strong case will have to be made, but there just seems like there are so many places where the President faces trouble, not just the Russia investigation, but emoluments, his charity, his taxes, and obstruction if not collusion. I think the cumulative weight of it all will make Trump unelectable in 2020. It will be very interesting to watch the 'blowing in the wind' types like Lindsey Graham in the next 6 months.

[_EAllusion]

Feels like 60/40 Trump to me. An incumbent president does not lose when the economy is doing well and the US is not in a unpopular war. Trump's numbers are defying political gravity by being as low as they are. It's a testament to just how bad he is that he remains unpopular. I'm given a 40% chance he loses on the theory that the US economy could slide by then or Trump might make himself the exception to the rule in political science.

[_subgenius]

Geez, you guys have a less than admirable success rate when it comes to election predictions, especially when you insist on using historical norms for circumstances that are currently non-existent......anyone care to review predictions from 2016? from 2018?

Trump has been "embroiled in controversy" since Nov 7th 2016 and Dems could only #bluetrickle wins 24 months later. You guys are so distracted with the half-time show, cheerleaders, and witty commercials that you don't even watch the game.
Nevertheless, now that Pelosi is set to win in January we realize that the Dems are in such shambles that they have no real plan other than "same as before", which will only serve to stabilize the party in the short-term....but without Trump what do Dems have as a platform? - nada; and that makes Trump's survival all but certain....the proverbial gunshot in the middle of 5th Ave.

[_honorentheos]

Rather than a percentage, putting it in terms of which is more probable I believe that:

It is significantly more probable that Trump will remain President until the election of 2020 than it is he will step down from office.

It is more probable that Trump will remain President until the election of 2020 than it is he will be removed from office through the exercise of the 25th Amendment.

It is probable that Trump will remain President until the election of 2020 rather then being impeached and removed from office.

It is slightly more probable than not that the House of Representatives will hold a vote to impeach Trump before his first term is complete. It is slightly less than probable they would get the 2/3 majority vote required to be successful.

It is highly probable the Senate will not convict Trump were the House to successfully impeach him. It's probable that McConnell would hold off on holding the requisite hearings and bringing a vote to the floor with the claim that the people should decide instead in the election of 2020.

It is more probable than not that Trump will face a challenger in the Republican Primary race in 2020 who will be covered in the national news and treated as if they represent a legitimate threat to Trump's nomination. But it's less than probable this will amount to an actual serious challenge that is successful.

It's highly probable the Democrat Primary will expose deep divides between traditional Clinton-era Democrats, Social Progressives, and so-called Democratic Socialists in the party that becomes a messaging challenge to unseat Trump. In the same way states that failed to vote for Clinton over Sanders in the primaries ended up not voting for Clinton in the general election, the division of loyalties exposed in the Primaries is probably going to be telling as to the likely success of Democrats in taking back the Presidency in 2020.

It's equally possible the House will end up in Democrat or Republican control after the election of 2020. Too many things could happen at this point to be able to say.

It's slightly more probable Republicans will maintain control of the Senate in 2020 for similar reasons as to why Republicans had a downhill ride in 2018. While there are more Republican seats up in 2020 than Democrat, there aren't many in blue states that are likely to flip while Democrats have two that need defended in states that went for Trump in 2016. That includes Doug Jones in Alabama who beat Roy Moore because creeper. It's unlikely the Republicans will run another creeper.

So, take way probability: It's likely Trump will face but lose to a Democrat candidate in the 2020 election but neither party will be in a strong position to exert their political will while both will likely come out of the election with serious wounds. That said, Democrats would be naïve to not realize it is possible Republicans could maintain control of the Presidency and the Senate while taking back the House. 2020 isn't a sure thing.

[_honorentheos]

Dems could only #bluetrickle wins 24 months later. You guys are so distracted with the half-time show, cheerleaders, and witty commercials that you don't even watch the game.

subbie, the 2018 election was a major victory for Democrats who were in an uphill fight in the House but won multiple seats in tough races that normally would have gone to Republicans and mitigates against what in 2016 looked like an opportunity for Republicans to gain a super-majority in the Senate. Democrats picked up governor's seats and state legislatures as well. Details matter in understanding what happened. With a 40 seat pick-up in the House, the 2018 election was a legitimate blue wave in the House with demographic indicators that certainly have Republican strategists working hard on planning for 2020 that doesn't look good for them. I'm sure Fox isn't reporting it that way but failing to understand what happened shows you're media diet is all empty calories.

[_EAllusion]

Geez, you guys have a less than admirable success rate when it comes to election predictions...

http://mormondiscussions.com/phpBB3/vie ... 0#p1141050

...

http://mormondiscussions.com/phpBB3/vie ... 9#p1148159

[_EAllusion]

Ge
Trump has been "embroiled in controversy" since Nov 7th 2016 and Democrats could only #bluetrickle wins 24 months later.

Democrats won the House vote by over 8%, making it a larger margin than Republicans have had since the at least 1920. These margins reflect lean effects in other races as well. Democrats did this in the most incumbent friendly economic environment since 1998. This is almost certainly because Donald Trump is extremely unpopular against baseline expectations.

[_Kevin Graham]

Ge
Trump has been "embroiled in controversy" since Nov 7th 2016 and Democrats could only #bluetrickle wins 24 months later.

Democrats won the House vote by over 8%, making it a larger margin than Republicans have had since the at least 1920. These margins reflect lean effects in other races as well. Democrats did this in the most incumbent friendly economic environment since 1998. This is almost certainly because Donald Trump is extremely unpopular against baseline expectations.

Democrats won the House with the largest midterms margin of all time

Democrats took control of the House this year with the largest midterms margin of victory in history, surpassing the previous record of 8.7 million votes in 1974, according to NBC News election data.

By the numbers: Democratic House candidates currently have an 8,805,130 vote lead over Republicans, gaining 53.1% of the more than 111 million votes cast nationwide compared to the GOP's 45.2%, according to the data. The House flipped 41 seats during the 2018 election cycle, and could flip another if California Democratic candidate T.J. Cox, who has overtaken Republican incumbent David Valadao, ultimately wins the state's 21st district.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Well. Considering that Cohen has recently spent more than 70 hours with the Mueller team detailing his activities as a fixer for Trump, especially regarding our Presdient's business dealings with the Russians, it isn't looking good for The Donald if he leaves the Presidency.

The question is how much cover can he get from the Republicans to make it out of this thing without going to jail? From the Salt Lake Trib:

Sen. Mike Lee blocks proposed legislation to protect Mueller investigation of Russian meddling in U.S. election

There's a lot of weasel wording with the Republicans and not wanting to pass legislation that would protect the Mueller investigation, but with Trump's latest and overt statements about blackmailing the Democrats I have to wonder how he can avoid impeachment, and then prosecution. I have no idea, but it's fascinating.

- Doc

[_EAllusion]

Democrats won the House with the largest midterms margin of all time

Democrats took control of the House this year with the largest midterms margin of victory in history, surpassing the previous record of 8.7 million votes in 1974, according to NBC News election data.

By the numbers: Democratic House candidates currently have an 8,805,130 vote lead over Republicans, gaining 53.1% of the more than 111 million votes cast nationwide compared to the GOP's 45.2%, according to the data. The House flipped 41 seats during the 2018 election cycle, and could flip another if California Democratic candidate T.J. Cox, who has overtaken Republican incumbent David Valadao, ultimately wins the state's 21st district.

I saw a lot of headlines on this, but I don't like it because it doesn't contextualize population growth. Relative margin is a better way to think about this. The relative margin is going to end up very high by historical standards. The modern near 50/50 political environment after the great dixiecrat shift towards Republicans was in full effect by the late 80's/early 90's. Since then, this was the single largest margin of victory by a political party outside of 2008 when the US had just fallen into a near economic depression. It was a mid-term blowout. Midterms tend to be bad for the presidential incumbent party, but this was a particularly bad one in a year that was otherwise particularly favorable to incumbents. Republicans losses were actually fairly bad, but were mitigated from being much worse by very favorable maps.