Warren drops out

[_canpakes]

Looks like we might be careening into the election scenario where Warren is likely a strong candidate. Democrats screwed up badly, as is their tradition.

There’s still a VP slot open. : )

[_EAllusion]

Well, Sanders should now drop out.

[_EAllusion]

Vox (Matthew Yglesias in this case) has a piece on Warren's defeat that makes the same argument I did in this thread, though with more detail:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21169166/ ... lass-women

Warren's particular cultural coding - how she speaks, dresses, that she's known as a professor, etc. - influenced how sexism affected her election prospects. While Warren has a genuine working class background, which makes her fairly uncommon among Presidential candidates, and has spent her entire political life principally focused on working class issues, she doesn't culturally read or get covered as working class. Rather, she's coded as a affluent intellectual, which she obviously is, but contrast that with how a Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders is treated.

One of the issues with this is the men and women who are the most receptive to sexist arguments about and stereotyping of candidates also are not apt to see Warren as one of their own to help paper over this. This makes winning those voters more of an an uphill battle for her. In other words, if media sources portray her as a mean-spirited bitch for doing something Joe Biden would be portrayed as having grit for doing, the people most receptive to that don't have as much natural sympathy with her to counterbalance that in their attitudes towards her.

[_canpakes]

Warren's particular cultural coding - how she speaks, dresses, that she's known as a professor, etc. - influenced how sexism affected her election prospects. While Warren has a genuine working class background, which makes her fairly uncommon among Presidential candidates, and has spent her entire political life principally focused on working class issues, she doesn't culturally read or get covered as working class. Rather, she's coded as a affluent intellectual, which she obviously is, but contrast that with how a Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders is treated.

I still believe that a major contributing factor to Warren’s demise was her statement about getting rid of the current medical insurance-based system. From a post back in July:

(Democrats need to) Stop telling people that they are going to 'get rid of' private medical insurance’. Yes, the current situation is either inadequate or expensive for most folks, but I don't think that there's a high degree of confidence within the general population in proposing that the Nation is going to be able to simply excise that current system from existence and replace it wholesale with a government-managed alternative that will not have its own set of challenges. And there has been scant discussion as to why a two-tiered system like what exists in Canada could not be implemented here that could provide many Americans with a Medicare option while preserving a private supplemental option for those that would either like to pay for it, or offer it as an employment benefit. ...

viewtopic.php?p=1186703#p1186703

Yes, Sanders has the same message, but he has a greater cult of personality going for him, over a much longer period of time - and that has mitigated the effect from this policy idea on his viability in the early portion of the primaries. But now, this policy is working against him as he finds himself squaring off against the more-centrist Biden.

[_Xenophon]

Well, Sanders should now drop out.

Even Yang has endorsed Biden. I'll be curious to see if Sanders actually accepts the math or if he rides this ship down in a blaze of faux glory re-pivoting back to his 2016 position of asking for the super delegates to interject on his behalf.

[_Some Schmo]

Well, Sanders should now drop out.

Even Yang has endorsed Biden. I'll be curious to see if Sanders actually accepts the math or if he rides this ship down in a blaze of faux glory re-pivoting back to his 2016 position of asking for the super delegates to interject on his behalf.

Yeah, I have to admit that this is a critical time for the public perception of Bernie's integrity. If he decides to keep going after what happened last night, he will have lost all credibility with me. It will be about his own personal glory, not the good of the country.

Please, just let it go, and as soon as possible. We're watching, Bernie. It's time to unite all the non-idiot non-Trump supporters... now.

[_Xenophon]

Yeah, I have to admit that this is a critical time for the public perception of Bernie's integrity. If he decides to keep going after what happened last night, he will have lost all credibility with me. It will be about his own personal glory, not the good of the country.

Please, just let it go, and as soon as possible. We're watching, Bernie. It's time to unite all the non-idiot non-Trump supporters... now.

I think the problem Sanders faces is that his most adamant supporters are not the kind of people that will accept him bowing out gracefully. Does he lose credibility with those that viewed him as a second choice (at best) but are a large chunk of the party by staying in it or does his lose credibility with his core base and drop out? Tough choices ahead.

If you're truly into the whole "Biden has dementia and might implode in nuclear fashion" mindset you'd probably hope to see Sanders ride this thing out. At least go through the debate Sunday and see if Biden drops the n-word or something ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Part of me hopes he does at least stay in it until the debate. I have a theory that roughly 90% of pundits just base their post-debate takes on crowd reactions so I'm curious to see what it looks like when there is no audience.

[_EAllusion]

I still believe that a major contributing factor to Warren’s demise was her statement about getting rid of the current medical insurance-based system. From a post back in July:

(Democrats need to) Stop telling people that they are going to 'get rid of' private medical insurance’. Yes, the current situation is either inadequate or expensive for most folks, but I don't think that there's a high degree of confidence within the general population in proposing that the Nation is going to be able to simply excise that current system from existence and replace it wholesale with a government-managed alternative that will not have its own set of challenges. And there has been scant discussion as to why a two-tiered system like what exists in Canada could not be implemented here that could provide many Americans with a Medicare option while preserving a private supplemental option for those that would either like to pay for it, or offer it as an employment benefit. ...

viewtopic.php?p=1186703#p1186703

Yes, Sanders has the same message, but he has a greater cult of personality going for him, over a much longer period of time - and that has mitigated the effect from this policy idea on his viability in the early portion of the primaries. But now, this policy is working against him as he finds himself squaring off against the more-centrist Biden.

I’m sure it’s multiple causes. Warren caught herself in a no man’s land where her endorsement of a med for all universal coverage plan upset the Dem donor class and some centrists, but releasing a detailed plan with pay-fors and compromise points caused those who are focused on that issue to see her as a willing sell out. There’s a universe in which her approach gets her portrayed as a move-the-ball forward pragmatist, but we do not live there. To what extent her gender influenced the framing, I do not know. It’s also not clear to me how much this hurt her beyond at least a little.

Something I do know is primaries now go through a predictable news cycle where the media generates a lot of positive coverage for a candidate as a new, exciting horserace story, that person rises in the polls, then the media turns on them with a deluge of negative stories usually causing a subsequent fall. Voters are highly influenced by this Russian roulette coverage cycle. There’s a good academic paper on this phenomenon I’ll link if I get a chance. Warren’s healthcare issue happened right when she was in the “fall” part of the coverage cycle. If it wasn’t that, it might have been something else.

[_DoubtingThomas]

Yeah, I have to admit that this is a critical time for the public perception of Bernie's integrity. If he decides to keep going after what happened last night, he will have lost all credibility with me. It will be about his own personal glory, not the good of the country.

Very little has changed under Donald Trump, and my life has not been affected.

[_DoubtingThomas]

If you're truly into the whole "Biden has dementia and might implode in nuclear fashion" mindset you'd probably hope to see Sanders ride this thing out. At least go through the debate Sunday and see if Biden drops the n-word or something ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Part of me hopes he does at least stay in it until the debate. I have a theory that roughly 90% of pundits just base their post-debate takes on crowd reactions so I'm curious to see what it looks like when there is no audience.

Biden has serious problems as a candidate, and he couldn't remember Obama's name.