Upcoming Midterms
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:51 am
538 has a great breakdown of the possible seats that could be flipped by either party.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/gop-house-2022/
Democrats currently have a 9 seat lead, which means the Reps need to flip 5 seats to take control of the House.
These are the seats Republicans have a strong chance of flipping based on current polling data:
Arizona - 1
Tennessee - 1
Florida - 2
Wisconsin -1
These are tossups Republicans could flip:
Arizona -1
Oregon - 1
Alaska - 1
Virginia - 1
New Jersey - 1
Iowa - 1
Kansas - 1
Illinois - 1
Pennsylvania -1
Maryland -1
Even if Democrats win all of those tossups, Republicans are poised to take control of the House with the five flips above. However, Democrats are poised to flip some seats of their own. There aren't any sure locks but there are some tossups like these:
California - 3
New Mexico - 1
Michigan -1
New York - 2
If Democrats can flip those seven seats and win half of the tossups Republicans hope to flip, they may remain in control of the House.
If history is any indicator, since the Democrats are the party in power, the Republicans should mop the floors with the Democrats in the midterms. The fact that the Demos have an outside chance to hold onto the House and are favored to retain control of the Senate speaks volumes I would think.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/gop-house-2022/
Democrats currently have a 9 seat lead, which means the Reps need to flip 5 seats to take control of the House.
These are the seats Republicans have a strong chance of flipping based on current polling data:
Arizona - 1
Tennessee - 1
Florida - 2
Wisconsin -1
These are tossups Republicans could flip:
Arizona -1
Oregon - 1
Alaska - 1
Virginia - 1
New Jersey - 1
Iowa - 1
Kansas - 1
Illinois - 1
Pennsylvania -1
Maryland -1
Even if Democrats win all of those tossups, Republicans are poised to take control of the House with the five flips above. However, Democrats are poised to flip some seats of their own. There aren't any sure locks but there are some tossups like these:
California - 3
New Mexico - 1
Michigan -1
New York - 2
If Democrats can flip those seven seats and win half of the tossups Republicans hope to flip, they may remain in control of the House.
If history is any indicator, since the Democrats are the party in power, the Republicans should mop the floors with the Democrats in the midterms. The fact that the Demos have an outside chance to hold onto the House and are favored to retain control of the Senate speaks volumes I would think.