Red Wave

[Chap]

I got out of the stock market and into precious metals today. I'm a fool with no confidence for not doing it sooner.

As someone who has been involved (on a hobby level) in coins and precious metals since about 2006, I can say with certainty that you taking yourself completely from the stock market, and going all-in on PMs is stupid. Really stupid. Especially while the stock market is low, and premiums on physical PMs is absolutely bonkers high.

Pull back if you have time.

You want to diversify? Fantastic. Going all in is nuts.

I completely agree with this. It is sheer madness to put everything into a single asset class.

Ajax, I disagree with you on many things, but I wish you no harm and I don't want to think of you risking ending up impoverished after a lifetime of hard work. You owe it to your family to step back. I assure you that I have enough knowledge and experience of this area to speak with some confidence. Please reconsider.

[Kishkumen]

I do have to give the Democrats credit. Republicans would never get away with running incapacitated candidates like John Fetterman or Joe Biden without being punished severely at the polls.

Herschel Walker and Donald Trump?

Well, Mitch McConnell did say bad candidates were the cause of disappointed expectations in the midterms!

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

Hey, gaiz. I just cashed out my index funds and threw them all into crypto. Imma let the free market decide the value of my crypto. Gaiz. Gaiz! For realz. I’m rollin’ the dice! I feel like a fool not buying Bitcoin when it was low and selling when it was $69k/coin. Gaiz. There’s inflation and gas costs $26/gallon. Gaiz! Since I’m going to work for the rest of my life, unlike you lazy craps, Imma do this. Imma double my money even though no matter what I do my money iz gonna be Democrapbucks. Gaiz. Believe me.

- Doc

[Doctor Steuss]

You want to diversify? Fantastic. Going all in is nuts.

I guess we'll find out. No offense but didn't you believe Veritas's economic predictions in 2020 after the Democrats took control of Congress and the presidency?

I have no idea what his predictions were, but coming out of COVID, I didn't have crazy high expectations for the global economic recovery. I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Your record of accurately remembering what I've said, or what I've supported is kind of trash. Still waiting in the other thread for you to show where I tried to overturn the last election, for 4 years.

But out of curiosity, how long do you think until the stock market starts to rise again. I still think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, if it gets better.

I don't know.

In my amateur armchair crystal ball... The overall stock market is probably going to be pretty slow to turn around. Maybe a few years before we see a prolonged rise again. There are far too many things in play, and not a whole lot of slack in the markets to absorb the perpetual hiccups and global supply-chain instability. There are also attractive investment options and opportunities that are outside of stock market right now, and we probably aren't going to see those funds return (pushing up the prices) for quite some time. The 10-year T right now is 4% -- hard to look at that, and think "I'm going to put everything into stocks instead."

While the overall prices in the market might take some time to come back, I expect there to be some pretty healthy dividend yields in the near future. I think right now is an excellent opportunity to snag some really cheap stocks with historically consistent dividend payouts. Corporate profits are through the roof (they are actually responsible for a chunk of inflation). Naturally, executives will see a nice bump, and buybacks will push prices up a smidgeon, but I would bet on dividends increasing across the board, and that's where I've been focusing somewhat on what I've been picking up with my modest income.

Incidentally, if you had put all of your money in gold at the beginning of the year, you would have lost over 4% to date. That's not even accounting for the spot spread in premiums between buying and selling. Right now, if you were able to buy AU kilos at ~$57k a pop, you'd still be looking at over $40/oz premium over spot. Buying small, you'd be looking at as much as $100/oz premium over spot between buy/sell.

One piece of advise I would strongly encourage, if you have actually converted all of your investments to physical PMs... don't tell anyone. Each person you tell, is a person who can potentially tell someone else. Holding physical PMs paints a massive target on you as it is easily liquidated, and outside of slabbed coins, is very difficult to track/recover.


ETA:

My diversified portfolio still lost at least $12k last year.

This loss, however, is only realized upon liquidation. If you hadn't sold right now, it wouldn't have been a loss.

[Hawkeye]

I have no idea what his predictions were,

Have you ever read my signature line?

I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Your record of accurately remembering what I've said, or what I've supported is kind of trash.

Fair enough

Still waiting in the other thread for you to show where I tried to overturn the last election, for 4 years.

I've equated you with your party and some of the more vocal members of your party on this board. If you weren't a part of that movement than feel free to tell me different. Most people on this board tried to overturn the 2016 election through phony scandals. When you do things like that for four years you don't get to say that the other side questioning election results is on par with treason. I don't buy the line that Jan 6, 2021 was a day in which the republic had a near death experience.

But out of curiosity, how long do you think until the stock market starts to rise again. I still think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, if it gets better.

I don't know.

Incidentally, if you had put all of your money in gold at the beginning of the year, you would have lost over 4% to date. That's not even accounting for the spot spread in premiums between buying and selling. Right now, if you were able to buy AU kilos at ~$57k a pop, you'd still be looking at over $40/oz premium over spot. Buying small, you'd be looking at as much as $100/oz premium over spot between buy/sell.

I lost more than 4% of the stock market. Perhaps silver or another precious metal would be better. It still seems better than cryptocurrency.

One piece of advise I would strongly encourage, if you have actually converted all of your investments to physical PMs... don't tell anyone. Each person you tell, is a person who can potentially tell someone else. Holding physical PMs paints a massive target on you as it is easily liquidated, and outside of slabbed coins, is very difficult to track/recover.

I appreciate that advice and you're exactly right. I still hope that nobody knows who I am here because I like being able to say what I think out loud.
I wouldn't even tell anyone I voted Republican in real life because that's where we are in society. And I appreciate talking to you. Even political enemies can respect and help each other.

[Vēritās]

No offense but didn't you believe Veritas's economic predictions in 2020 after the Democrats took control of Congress and the presidency?

What predictions? You allude to your idiotic signature line but all you do there is prove my point. We never got $10 gas and we never got hyperinflation. That's something you and your ilk predict every time a Democrat takes office and it literally never happens.

My diversified portfolio still lost at least $12k last year. As you can infer I don't have much in it anyway so I'm not too worried about it.

So you suck at investing, and that's Biden's fault? You've been caught lying so many times on this subject in this thread alone, why do you think anyone should take you seriously?

But out of curiosity, how long do you think until the stock market starts to rise again.

The fact that you're asking this question on a day when the NASDAQ jumped more than 7% today, is proof positive you're not invested in the stock market.

I still think it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, if it gets better.

It already got better. Today the DOW exploded for a 1200 point gain, the most one day gain since early 2020.

I remember making the prediction in 2020 after BIden's election that a dollar would be worth around 45 cents in four years.

You make these kinds of idiotic predictions every time a Democrat gets elected, and never are your predictions validated with reality. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, but you never are. The dollar is the strongest its been in decades. Inflation started rising during the Trump administration and it was due to supply bottlenecks.

At the current rate of inflation a dollar earned in 2020 will be worth about 73 cents by 2024 so hopefully inflation won't continue to increase and we'll see that I overestimated our decline.

Today's inflation report reveals that things are already taking a downturn. But you live in a Brietbart bubble where only negative news is reported or fabricated during a Democratic administration.

But I don't see any real incentives to keep gas prices and inflation lower.

!!!!

Biden is likely to see this election as a mandate to print more money and continue to wage war on fossil fuels in favor of more expensive green energy. Maybe time will show that I'm wrong and that printing money doesn't really cause inflation, but I think not.

Biden isn't printing money. You're an idiot.

[Doctor Steuss]

I've equated you with your party and some of the more vocal members of your party on this board.

I know I've mentioned this before, but I'm a lifelong registered Republican (*cue ominous peel of thunder, and screaming children*). I think I've only voted strictly along party lines twice in my life. Both times, it was when I was younger, and it was straight "R."

While I voted 95% "D" in this recent election (in many cases, voting "against" someone more-so than voting "for" someone), there were a few "R" that received my vote also. I do my best to vote for the individual, and solicit feedback from friends when its an area I'm debilitatingly ignorant in (I am perpetually indebted to lawyer friends for helping me with understanding and voting on local judges).

If I ever finally give up what little hope is left for a return to sanity, and stop staying "R" to vote in the primaries, the only reason I'd go "D" instead of "I" would be to have access to those primaries.

I lost more than 4% of the stock market. Perhaps silver or another precious metal would be better. It still seems better than cryptocurrency.

Silver is its own monster right now. Premiums on 90% are astronomical. Last time I checked, while spot is about 17x face, it sells for around 25x. The premium over spot on ASEs is crazy too. So, the second you "buy" silver (or gold), you've essentially immediate lost money if you try to sell it. You can, of course, sell for much more than spot if you sell it to a private buyer, but then you are also taking on yourself the security/safety risk. Depending on your state, if you sell it to an entity, you might be looking at being taxed as well. On its surface, it's appealing, but beyond the surface it gets a bit funky.

A significant portion of my 90% I got for "free" when I had the hobby of roll searching. Percentages are so low now, it isn't worth it, but I used to get coins in bulk from banks to search through. It was incredibly relaxing -- I wish it was something that was still worth it.

Crypto... yeah, that's a monster in itself. I used to build mining rigs for myself (being bipolar, I've had a ridiculous number of hobbies) back when Bitcoin was flirting with gold. Jumping out when I did is one of my many regrets, but the hobby ended up paying for itself, and three subsequent hobbies. It's so incredibly volatile. I have a very small amount invested still -- I lost about 30% in value in the last day alone.

And I appreciate talking to you.

That sincerely means a lot to me. Thank you.

[Vēritās]

I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Your record of accurately remembering what I've said, or what I've supported is kind of trash. Still waiting in the other thread for you to show where I tried to overturn the last election, for 4 years

That's what this guy does. He flat out lies about what other people have said, and then in hindsight reinvents things that he never said to make himself look like a prophet of some sort. Hell, he's alluding to his signature line about my "predictions" but there are no economic predictions there either. I think the guy may be mentally retarded.

Incidentally, if you had put all of your money in gold at the beginning of the year, you would have lost over 4% to date. That's not even accounting for the spot spread in premiums between buying and selling.

But but but he has a friend who...

If you hadn't sold right now, it wouldn't have been a loss.

Thank you. I've been telling people this for years. It is only a loss if you sell it at a loss. All those people who cashed out their 401ks in a panic back in 2007 were foolish. Many of them ended up on TV crying over their losses, but had they just sat on it for another 4 years they would have recovered it all and then some.

[Vēritās]

Most people don't realize that the stock market was artificially inflated in 2020. The Fed dumped $3 trillion into financial markets to help the stock market recover.

Federal Reserve's $3 trillion virus rescue inflates market bubbles

JULY 13, 2020

We can't say we weren't warned, but in 2020 the market was skyrocketing and people were making money hand over fist so no one cared. Until the illusion gave way and then people started blaming Biden.

The Stock Market Is Currently Facing the Iceberg Illusion

1_eMb7cUQAKvs4EXyfm9WOEg.png (192.49 KiB) Viewed 276 times

[Hawkeye]

I'm debilitatingly ignorant in (I am perpetually indebted to lawyer friends for helping me with understanding and voting on local judges).

I'm right there with you. I had no idea about the local judges on the ballot so I just voted to throw them all out. I did try to research the school board positions and be more involved and educated on local politics since that matters more than national politics to me. But they rarely talk about local politics on talk radio. I'm sure a lot people walk into the ballot box completely ignorant as I've done on previous occasions. Up until the last minute I was getting cryptic contradictory texts on whether or not to vote to have single member districts. I had no idea who or what to believe. I've had fellow doctors much smarter than me tell me they didn't understand what the language on the amendment they were voting on meant or what the consequences of voting one way or the other would be. I think that's often by design at the local level.