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After watching more online coverage of Biden post-debate, it has become increasingly clear to me that the DNC is in chaos largely because younger Democrats were unhappy to see Biden run the first time, expected him to keep his promise not to run for re-election, and have now lost patience with him because of his poor debate performance. This is their coup, and it is idiotic. I would love to be proven wrong, but the modern history of last-minute replacements of presidential candidates does not favor victory. It makes me angry to think that generational tensions are driving this push to get rid of Biden when the stakes are this high. Those pushing Biden’s departure point to high stakes too, but the history of presidential elections does not favor their solution.

So I call this not just a coup, but a loser coup, in that it is a coup to push a losing proposition, a loser of a plan. If it prevails, Democrats will probably lose the White House, and once again they will point fingers elsewhere instead of owning their failure to unite behind the candidate most Democrats supported in the primaries. The young, self-righteous left wing is dreaming of seizing the reins of power, when past experience suggests they will likely fail and everyone will pay for their mistake.

I can't help feeling that if Biden had kept a promise to not run for re-election, and a younger Democrat candidate had been selected to run in his place, there would be a higher probability that the Democrat party would win in 2024. I fear that it might be too late now to designate a replacement for Biden who would have a better chance of winning than either Biden or Trump. I still think that Sheldon Whitehouse would have been an excellent choice, had he wanted to run. I still think, though, that even Biden is an incomparably better choice than a narcissistic, utterly corrupt, and pathologically dishonest would-be dictator like Trump, even though I fear there might be a moderately high probability of Biden dying or becoming at least partially incapacitated before the end of his second term, should he win re-election.

Gunnar wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:11 am

I can't help feeling that if Biden had kept a promise to not run for re-election, and a younger Democrat candidate had been selected to run in his place, there would be a higher probability that the Democrat party would win in 2024. I fear that it might be too late now to designate a replacement for Biden who would have a better chance of winning than either Biden or Trump. I still think that Sheldon Whitehouse would have been an excellent choice, had he wanted to run. I still think, though, that even Biden is an incomparably better choice than a narcissistic, utterly corrupt, and pathologically dishonest would-be dictator like Trump, even though I fear there might be a moderately high probability of Biden dying or becoming at least partially incapacitated before the end of his second term, should he win re-election.

Historically, incumbents, especially ones who can point to a lot of successes, win. I know you know all of this. Add to that the fact that this incumbent already defeated his opponent before, and on paper it looks like a no-brainer. Run the incumbent. The problem is that we seem to be in a time of major transition, and so one questions whether the normal rules apply.

Kishkumen wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 1:22 pm

Gunnar wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:11 am

I can't help feeling that if Biden had kept a promise to not run for re-election, and a younger Democrat candidate had been selected to run in his place, there would be a higher probability that the Democrat party would win in 2024. I fear that it might be too late now to designate a replacement for Biden who would have a better chance of winning than either Biden or Trump. I still think that Sheldon Whitehouse would have been an excellent choice, had he wanted to run. I still think, though, that even Biden is an incomparably better choice than a narcissistic, utterly corrupt, and pathologically dishonest would-be dictator like Trump, even though I fear there might be a moderately high probability of Biden dying or becoming at least partially incapacitated before the end of his second term, should he win re-election.

Historically, incumbents, especially ones who can point to a lot of successes to point to. I know you know all of this. Add to that the fact that this incumbent already defeated his opponent before, and on paper it looks like a no-brainer. Run the incumbent. The problem is that we seem to be in a time of major transition, and so one questions whether the normal rules apply.

Thanks for the reassurance. I hope you are right that Biden will probably still prevail.

Gunnar wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 1:41 pm

Thanks for the reassurance. I hope you are right that Biden will probably still prevail.

Oh, I don’t know that I feel confident. I am simply uncertain that deviating from past trends will be the solution. I am sympathetic, even empathetic, with everyone who is worried.

Kishkumen wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 2:10 pm

I am sympathetic, even empathetic, with everyone who is worried.

So am I, obviously. My biggest hope is that general knowledge of Trump's criminality, ignorance, and corruption will become widespread enough between now and November 5 to prevent his re-election. My fear is that Trump's core base is not just ignorant and bigoted but proud of being so, and just big enough and/or so distributed geographically as to enable his win in the Electoral College vote, even if he loses in the popular vote tally.

Gunnar wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:56 pm

So am I, obviously. My biggest hope is that general knowledge of Trump's criminality, ignorance, and corruption will become widespread enough between now and November 5 to prevent his re-election.

So, more widespread than it already is, you say?

Is that even possible?

Dr. Shades wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:10 pm

Gunnar wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:56 pm

So am I, obviously. My biggest hope is that general knowledge of Trump's criminality, ignorance, and corruption will become widespread enough between now and November 5 to prevent his re-election.

So, more widespread than it already is, you say?

Is that even possible?

The perplexing thing to me is how widespread it already is without guaranteeing Trump's defeat in the coming election. How much more widespread does it have to be to convince a majority of voters to not vote for Trump? This is even more perplexing when one realizes that strong majorities oppose Trump's views on banning and even criminalizing abortion, on universal healthcare, climate change mitigation, universal healthcare and number of other things. Most perplexing of all is the number who still support Trump even while acknowledging he is a convicted felon and a misogynist who has admitted to abusing women. Some of his followers have said they would continue to support him even if they knew he were actually guilty of what he has already been convicted for, and even if they knew for a fact that he arbitrarily shot someone on the street!

Gunnar wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:56 pm

The perplexing thing to me is how widespread it already is without guaranteeing Trump's defeat in the coming election. How much more widespread does it have to be to convince a majority of voters to not vote for Trump? This is even more perplexing when one realizes that strong majorities oppose Trump's views on banning and even criminalizing abortion, on universal healthcare, climate change mitigation, universal healthcare and number of other things. Most perplexing of all is the number who still support Trump even while acknowledging he is a convicted felon and a misogynist who has admitted to abusing women. Some of his followers have said they would continue to support him even if they knew he were actually guilty of what he has already been convicted for, and even if they knew for a fact that he arbitrarily shot someone on the street!

Look at ceeboo’s reactions to these “horribles” and I think we can glean some insights. He has a general cynicism about politicians that is based on the assumption that they are all crummy liars, so one might as well overlook all that and get the policy results one wants. Except, often they don’t get them from Trump, who lies about his supposed accomplishments all the time.

He takes credit for things he never did, he pretends to support or oppose things in different directions on the same day, but, there is one thing he really delivered on that was the most important to many of them: the right wing justices who overturned Roe and are dismantling the civil service. So, you have rabid pro-lifers united with rabid government haters, and this is the magic combination that first pulled together in the ‘80s.

Trump made all those dreams of the Reaganites and Religious Right come true by giving them a radical right-wing Supreme Court. And they love him for it. What is a potty mouth and corruption next to that? Who cares what he knows? What Republic was there anyway when an alphabet soup of federal agencies and their regulations was oppressing businesses, ranchers, etc.?

There is a whole different view of things in Trump World that can be hard for us outsiders to understand.

Kishkumen wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 06, 2024 1:22 pm

The problem is that we seem to be in a time of major transition, and so one questions whether the normal rules apply.

Murphy's Law is in full swing for a Trump Presidency/Authoritarian Regime. The dismantling of America is in sight.