The Political Impact of Failed Assassination

[Kishkumen]

Those of us who abhor political violence and worry about a future Trump presidency should be deeply concerned about the attempt on Trump’s life. I recommend everyone read this piece and think about how the Associated Press is using this attempted assassination to promote Trump. It may be inadvertent, but the impact is very clear.

https://www.wdbj7.com/2024/07/14/reaga ... utType=amp

Let’s discuss this. I say that this kind of reporting shows a sloppy negligence in its coverage when it papers over unpleasant details of the attempt on Trump and evokes a mythic and heroic take on the attempt on Reagan.

What do you think?

[Dr. Shades]

I think it’s too far away from November to have any impact. Everyone will have forgotten about it by then.

If it had happened in October, then it may very well have made a difference.

[Gadianton]

I think Republicans were already at volume 10 two days ago and they can't get any louder. It's a boost for Republicans to get out there and vote, and a kick in the gut to Democrats, who will feel disheartened about the limitless possibilities of Trump's campaign now that he can legitimately claim victim status for once. But as Shades says, it's long enough away that momentum impacts probably won't matter.

It's all about the independents. Trump may reclaim a bunch of Kennedy supporters because hey, new conspiracy material, but beyond that? I'm more inclined to hear what others say. I just don't see it. On the one hand, Trump has taken back the news from Biden and so gets points for constant exposure. But as the details emerge, and the facts demonstrate just another shooting in America by a bullied kid, and that Secret Service and police presence was lax, used to normalcy, there is some opportunity for Democrats.

Republican leaders are already calling for Biden's arrest (remember, per the Supreme Court, if he ordered this, it was a presidential act and we need to respect it, and so they shouldn't get their hopes up) and making fools of themselves playing the victim. I think undecideds will see through it.

So far Trump has played it smart calling for unity (from what I can tell), and just moving on as if nothing happened. As they say in storytelling, "show, don't tell." If he tones down the rhetoric and encourages his side to focus on his heroic survival, he might gain some ground. If he implies heroism, it could make undecideds sympathetic to him. Especially if he emphasizes the other victims above himself. However, if he blows a gasket and starts accusing Biden of trying to kill him, and tearing apart the FBI and all the agencies, and invents conspirators and threatens to go after them, which will fill his base with glee, then that is an opportunity for Democrats to continue to underline Trump's extremism and danger, and I think it will be effective for undecideds.

Just imagine Trump reeling in his attack dogs and expressing gratitude and forgiveness and calling for unity (while still fully planning to implement 2025). I think that he really could capitalize on his apparent strength; rising from the grave with his fist in the air vs. Biden falling down, and that may just win it for him.

[Binger]

I think it’s too far away from November to have any impact. Everyone will have forgotten about it by then.

If it had happened in October, then it may very well have made a difference.

October surprises can swing a state or two by a point or two. This will swing a country by up to 5 points and some states as much as 10. Maybe more. This will make October a month for baseball playoffs. October won't matter. Pennsylvania my swing beyond the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh fraud margins.

[Kishkumen]

I think it’s too far away from November to have any impact. Everyone will have forgotten about it by then.

If it had happened in October, then it may very well have made a difference.

The way he made his survival out to be an act of God, I bet there is one demographic that won’t soon forget it.

[Kishkumen]

I think Republicans were already at volume 10 two days ago and they can't get any louder. It's a boost for Republicans to get out there and vote, and a kick in the gut to Democrats, who will feel disheartened about the limitless possibilities of Trump's campaign now that he can legitimately claim victim status for once. But as Shades says, it's long enough away that momentum impacts probably won't matter.

It's all about the independents. Trump may reclaim a bunch of Kennedy supporters because hey, new conspiracy material, but beyond that? I'm more inclined to hear what others say. I just don't see it. On the one hand, Trump has taken back the news from Biden and so gets points for constant exposure. But as the details emerge, and the facts demonstrate just another shooting in America by a bullied kid, and that Secret Service and police presence was lax, used to normalcy, there is some opportunity for Democrats.

Republican leaders are already calling for Biden's arrest (remember, per the Supreme Court, if he ordered this, it was a presidential act and we need to respect it, and so they shouldn't get their hopes up) and making fools of themselves playing the victim. I think undecideds will see through it.

So far Trump has played it smart calling for unity (from what I can tell), and just moving on as if nothing happened. As they say in storytelling, "show, don't tell." If he tones down the rhetoric and encourages his side to focus on his heroic survival, he might gain some ground. If he implies heroism, it could make undecideds sympathetic to him. Especially if he emphasizes the other victims above himself. However, if he blows a gasket and starts accusing Biden of trying to kill him, and tearing apart the FBI and all the agencies, and invents conspirators and threatens to go after them, which will fill his base with glee, then that is an opportunity for Democrats to continue to underline Trump's extremism and danger, and I think it will be effective for undecideds.

Just imagine Trump reeling in his attack dogs and expressing gratitude and forgiveness and calling for unity (while still fully planning to implement 2025). I think that he really could capitalize on his apparent strength; rising from the grave with his fist in the air vs. Biden falling down, and that may just win it for him.

Lots of great thoughts there, Dean. So far, Trump’s moves have been concerning to me. The fist pump and chanting “fight, fight, fight” seemed like an implicit call to fight fire with fire. His unity call was about defeating wickedness and depicting his survival as an act of God. All of these things might be terribly misused yet in the future. We’ll wait and see.

I was initially hoping someone might analyze the
way the AP relates the attempt on Trump to Hinckley’s attempt on Reagan. To me it looked like an invocation of
The cult of St. Ronnie in service of promoting the fortunes of Trump. Is that a fair take or not?

[Gadianton]

I just watched the 1.5 minute version of that on YouTube after you recommended it. The comparison was thin because Reagan nearly died. However, what he seemed to be saying, was that Reagan was already likable and had a good disposition, and so he emerged renewed and his recovery could be considered heroic in the eyes of the nation. His point seemed to be that Trump doesn't have a good relationship with the public (beyond his base) and our times are much more polarized, and so how this "gift horse" works out remains to be seen. (sorry, I didn't see until I had written this that you had linked to an article, wasn't paying attention)

Okay I read the article now, yeah, it seemed like the article may have tried to imply the point the guy in YouTube video made more clear.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdV6WQTcELI

[ceeboo]

So far, Trump’s moves have been concerning to me.

I know! Did you see him fake going down after the bullet hit his head? What a drama queen!

The fist pump and chanting “fight, fight, fight” seemed like an implicit call to fight fire with fire.

That's exactly what I thought too! I am pretty sure he was calling for people to shoot Biden in the head.

His unity call was about defeating wickedness and depicting his survival as an act of God.

I know - Can you imagine such nonsense! A believer speaking about a lunatic murderer as wickedness and then pretending to invoke a Creator as a potential reason that the bullet that struck your head didn't kill you.

All of these things might be terribly misused yet in the future. We’ll wait and see.

Like many of the social media posts that I have read in the last 12 hours from my fellow American citizens on the political left, I think it was all staged. Obviously, he will use this slightly misfortunate thingy and terribly misuse it in the future.

Is that a fair take or not?

If you need to ask, you just might have your answer already.

[Gadianton]

The fist pump and chanting “fight, fight, fight” seemed like an implicit call to fight fire with fire.

It was a showman overacting but it was absolutely the strategic move. And there was no time. I mean, this was pure impulse. I was more concerned about what his statement would be on social media after having had time to reflect. And it wasn't bad at all. I mean, it was surprisingly good. There is a chance that the experience changed him (at least in terms of strategy). I doubt it, but there's a chance. We'll just have to see how his messaging goes in the near future.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

So, are we going to get more funding for mental health from the GOP like they say when a mass shooter smokes some people grocery shopping? On radical websites young men use a term called ‘acceleration’ - a sort of ethos dedicated to the destruction of civilization so that a man-operated one, a Conservative one, can take over.



They’re ‘accelerating’ to hard times so they can start the cycle over again. I think this kid was probably an incel heavily influenced by populism, doomerism, and cynicism. Sad.

- Doc