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The Art of the Deal

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2026 4:34 pm
by Doctor Steuss
The text of the draft memorandum that is making the rounds at the G7 is below (pulled from Bloomberg - paywalled). The inability of MAGA Trump supporters to feel embarrassment remains unmatched.

  1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
  2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
  3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
  4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States shall lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
  5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralisation of mines by Iran.
  6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
  7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
  8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
  9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
  10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
  11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
  12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
  13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
  14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

    For comparison, here's the JCPOA that Trump scrapped because, reasons. PDF Direct Download Link - US Dept of State

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2026 7:26 pm
by Gunnar
Doctor Steuss wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2026 4:34 pm
The text of the draft memorandum that is making the rounds at the G7 is below (pulled from Bloomberg - paywalled). The inability of MAGA Trump supporters to feel embarrassment remains unmatched.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For comparison, here's the JCPOA that Trump scrapped because, reasons. PDF Direct Download Link - US Dept of State
And Ajax and his fellow MAGA s Just can't or won't see it no matter how embarrassing or damaging this all is for them and their self-glorifying leader. It's nearly (if not actually) as irrational as denying the world is round or staring straight at the noonday sun and insisting it is midnight!

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Wed Jun 17, 2026 8:10 pm
by Doctor Steuss
To recap:

$29 billion in direct operational and munitions costs.
$200 billion for stockpile replenishment and other costs (as requested by Trump to Congress).
$275 million in aircraft losses.
Unknown amount in damages to international bases.
$60 billion (so far) in additional fuel costs.
$300 billion in restitution to rebuild (mixed messaging on who will front this).
$1 trillion long-term financial cost (Harvard analysis, which includes additional veterans' healthcare costs, and long-term interest on additional national debt)

So, over a trillion dollars for a promise to not seek nuclear weapons, and a country that now has an even more ingrained hatred of the United States and has zero incentive to not secretly seek nuclear weapons as a deterrent against future "pre-emptive" attacks.

Compared to 1.7 billion dollars for a promise to not seek nuclear weapons, alongside multi-national inspections (which both Israeli and American intelligence agencies said was working).

One of these things are considered by MAGA to be the actions of a stable genius, and master deal maker, and it isn't the less expensive one that involved multi-national verifications that didn't result in the deaths of American troops or the slaughter of a bunch of schoolgirls.

[This space reserved for the prior feigned concern for Iranian citizens, and claims that this would ultimately result in regime change.]

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2026 12:38 am
by Gadianton
Are you sure that's the correct version Steuss? I think P5 is supposed to read:

5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleea ... 26&bih=817

We are agreeing to allow Iran to charge for passage after 60 days, and also to give them 300B dollars. Why? It all starts with bad timing --- Elon's epic IPO scam must be fed and extends to mid-terms from there. This has been the greatest military blunder of this century.

In today's climate, Iran charging for passage seems an awful lot like "tariffs" and "Iran first" -- seems pretty reasonable for them to join the trend.

Inflation was anticipated at 2.6 and came in at 3.6 thanks to the war. And what was the reason for any of this? A handful of hotheads looking to flex beyond blowing up shipping vessels? Just another opportunity to be on the front page looking tough?

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2026 1:00 am
by canpakes
Gadianton wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2026 12:38 am
5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
I have rewritten this passage to show the actual deliverables, given that nothing concrete exists in this paragraph or is actually required of or by anyone:
There maybe could be lots of talking about stuff and plans and things. We hope that ships start immediately moving.

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2026 1:53 am
by Jersey Girl
Early on he claimed he wanted nothing less than unconditional surrender. Well he got it, didn't he? I mean, he ponied one right up there.

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2026 4:48 am
by canpakes
Jersey Girl wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2026 1:53 am
Early on he claimed he wanted nothing less than unconditional surrender. Well he got it, didn't he? I mean, he ponied one right up there.
Image

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2026 11:07 pm
by canpakes
Gadianton wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2026 12:38 am
Are you sure that's the correct version Steuss? I think P5 is supposed to read:

5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
canpakes wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2026 1:00 am

I have rewritten this passage to show the actual deliverables, given that nothing concrete exists in this paragraph or is actually required of or by anyone:
There maybe could be lots of talking about stuff and plans and things. We hope that ships start immediately moving.


As predicted.

Image

From the article:

The root of the dispute is Paragraph 5, which says Iran will make arrangements to restore shipping through the strategic waterway and then work with Oman to determine how to administer it in the future. But it also includes an Iranian pledge to ensure safe passage and remove military obstacles such as mines.

Trump administration officials saw that clause as unlocking the strait, the main accomplishment of the president’s deal. Iranian hard-liners, however, have used it to push a maximalist interpretation that gives the Islamic Republic exclusive control over the waterway as a key source of leverage.

“This gap in interpretation is wide, baked into the deal, and not exactly surprising,” said Michael Horowitz, an Israeli geopolitical analyst. “Washington has tried to convince Tehran that compliance would be more profitable, but this framing misses the point. Iran’s behavior isn’t driven by financial motives but by security concerns and bargaining leverage. It’s a power dynamic.”

Three weeks after Trump signed the preliminary deal to wind down the war at Versailles, France, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still stunted. Crossings fell to 25 on Wednesday amid the U.S. and Iranian exchanges of fire, from 49 the day before, according to ship-tracking company Kpler. More than 100 ships crossed each day before the war.

A U.S. official familiar with negotiations said Paragraph 5 has been problematic and that the U.S. and Iran are on “different planets” when it comes to interpreting the deal. Notably, the paragraph says nothing about the U.S. making arrangements for the safe passage of vessels, which Iran has seized on to attack ships that use a U.S.-coordinated route, the official said.


Don’t think for a moment that the Trump Administration didn’t plan it this way.

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2026 9:57 am
by I Have Questions
I’m slightly confused, I thought the USA was now at war with “the Islamic Republic of Japan”?

Re: The Art of the Deal

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2026 5:19 pm
by Chap
I Have Questions wrote:
Fri Jul 10, 2026 9:57 am
I’m slightly confused, I thought the USA was now at war with “the Islamic Republic of Japan”?
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