What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

[_Gunnar]

EAllusion, I fervently hope that if Trump is impeached and is actually guilty as charged, that enough Republicans in the senate will have both the integrity and backbone to appropriately convict him, and that a majority of the voting public will indeed take it as an example of broad Republican corruption if they don't. At this point, however, I don't have high confidence that this is how it will all turn out.

[Guest]

I'm sure what Democrats are worried about right now is that an impeachment with a failure to convict, which seems highly likely, will be interpreted by the public as an exoneration rather than broad Republican corruption. 1) I don't think that's a given. 2) There's something to be said for just doing the right thing and letting the chips fall where they may. and 3) It would be an example of broad Republican corruption.

I don't honestly know how long the process takes. I do think that if he's impeached without conviction--he'll twist that right into a campaign pretzel eye roller and use it to successfully win the 2020 election.

Yes, this is what I fear will happen. I can't help but suspect that getting him successfully voted out of office will be more likely if he is not impeached at all than if he is impeached and subsequently acquitted by the Senate. Perhaps the best outcome would be if he is successfully removed from office by impeachment and conviction, but I am not absolutely sure even of that. I am not all that certain that President Mike Pence would be a lesser evil than President Trump. I am afraid that Mike Pence would be an even greater threat to religious freedom and minority rights than Trump. He has often indicated, or at least, strongly implied, that his ultimate goal is to transform this nation into an ultra right, fundamentalist, Christian Theocracy, with no tolerance for LGBT rights, racial and ethnic minorities, non Christians or even other Christians who do not share his extreme, sectarian views.

[_MeDotOrg]

I think this tweet is the saddest of all.

As Mueller gradually encircles the White House, it's going to be interesting how many people will deny that the Emperor has no clothes. This whole exercise has the feeling of ponderous inexorability about it. I would say that the first quarter of 2019 will not be the Golden Age of the Trump era.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

EA, I fervently hope that if Trump is impeached and is actually guilty as charged, that enough Republicans in the senate will have both the integrity and backbone to appropriately convict him, and that a majority of the voting public will indeed take it as an example of broad Republican corruption if they don't. At this point, however, I don't have high confidence that this is how it will all turn out.

I think the only way Republicans break ranks with Trump, primarily because he's a rubber stamp President, is if conspiracy with Russia is proven. At that point I believe Trump becomes too toxic even for most of the Republican base. The upside is if they ditch Trump, force him to resign, they can retain the appearance of morality with Pence who would keep the GOP agenda alive and kicking.

Whatever the case may be prosecutors will keep picking Trump's administration off. Once they start indicting his family things will get reeeeeeally interesting. Fox News will have no choice but to break away from him at some point, and once Trump loses Fox News I can't imagine him holding power nor making a successful re-election bid. 2019 is going to be a sort of political Hunger Games and I have to admit it's going to be much more fascinating to watch because now, instead of a constant crappy ad hoc Executive office reality tv show, the chickens will be coming home to roost and consequences finally happen.

- Doc

[_Gunnar]

The upside is if they ditch Trump, force him to resign, they can retain the appearance of morality with Pence who would keep the GOP agenda alive and kicking.

- Doc

At this point I'm not sure how much of an upside that would be for anyone other than the current Republican hierarchy. Pence himself is pretty bad, IMHO. I do think, however, that Pence would be less likely than Trump to purposefully or accidentally ignite a thermonuclear war in a fit of pique, vendetta or desperation.

[_subgenius]

Subgenius's dubious faith in Trump's purity aside, I love how defenses of Trump have devolved into, "this grossly unethical conduct from the president of the United States technically isn't a prosecutable felony."

I never claimed he did anything unethical, i merely pointed out that the poster's claim for Trump behaving unethically is not tantamount to a "literal" felony. So, what we really see is offenses from the Left sliding from criminal to unethical...a.k.a., gee that orange guy is so mean, we must impeach him for that.

[_subgenius]

I think you, the federal government, and the SDNY have wildly different ideas what 'personal money' entails. Let's just say that the state of NY and the federal government agree that a campaign (illegal thing #1) using campaign funds to reimburse Cohen for his payoffs to (illegal thing #2) keep two women silent to influence an election isn't lawful and it isn't Trump using his personal money. You have two major problems that you don't seem to grasp, on any level.

You're waaaaaaay out of your depth here. Metaphorically.

- Doc

Well, come back to the shallow end then....forgive me, but i failed to see in your citation where there was evidence that Trump used campaign money to pay anybody for anything...can you specifically quote the evidence that affirms Trump's use of campaign money to pay Stormy? to reimburse Cohen for payments to Stormy? etc etc ?
Also, I did not find any evidence where the payments were to influence any election. Trump stated that it was to prevent future blackmail etc. Can you post the evidence that proves the contrary?
I apologize for the inconvenience and interruption to your well reasoned proclamation of "literally a felony"; but I appreciate the edification in advance.

[_Chap]

i merely pointed out that the poster's claim for Trump behaving unethically is not tantamount to a "literal" felony

You're well behind on this one.

We have seen postings of detailed opinions by legal experts that that Cohen's confession amounts to evidence that Trump conspired to cause an illegal corporate campaign contribution to be made. That's evidence of a felony, not just something 'unethical'. And Cohen's confession seems likely to earn him a substantial jail sentence. He certainly didn't confess just to cause Trump trouble, but rather because he knew Mueller had him nailed.

Of course Trump can only be convicted of the felony if and when he stands trial for it - then, and not before, is when we move formally from evidence to proof. But he is certainly well into the cross-hairs for being prosecuted.

[_subgenius]

i merely pointed out that the poster's claim for Trump behaving unethically is not tantamount to a "literal" felony

You're well behind on this one.

We have seen postings of detailed opinions by legal experts that that Cohen's confession amounts to evidence that Trump conspired to cause an illegal corporate campaign contribution to be made. That's evidence of a felony, not just something 'unethical'. And Cohen's confession seems likely to earn him a substantial jail sentence. He certainly didn't confess just to cause Trump trouble, but rather because he knew Mueller had him nailed.

Of course Trump can only be convicted of the felony if and when he stands trial for it - then, and not before, is when we move formally from evidence to proof. But he is certainly well into the cross-hairs for being prosecuted.

Nope - a legal experts opinion does not make it evidence - you want to see how many legal experts on Fox agree with your legal experts on CNN?
If Cohen says that Trump used campaign funds and Trump says he did not, then it still has to be "proven"... or does jurisprudence work differently in your country?
Again, where is the evidence/proof that Trump used campaign money illegally? If all you can offer is "Cohen promises" then I have to giggle about how you guys suddenly believe Cohen, but laugh at how you believe that is sufficient for an impeachment or conviction.

[_EAllusion]

Subgenius's dubious faith in Trump's purity aside, I love how defenses of Trump have devolved into, "this grossly unethical conduct from the president of the United States technically isn't a prosecutable felony."

I never claimed he did anything unethical, i merely pointed out that the poster's claim for Trump behaving unethically is not tantamount to a "literal" felony. So, what we really see is offenses from the Left sliding from criminal to unethical...a.k.a., gee that orange guy is so mean, we must impeach him for that.

Grossly unethical conduct falls within the purview of impeachment. It deals with high crimes and misdemeanors, not ordinary criminal law. Your ignorance about this has been directly addressed before, so you don't really have an excuse any more. But as a fun aside, take a gander at the list of grievances against King George in the Declaration of Independence and count up which ones were explicitly illegal.