What are the chances of Trump's political survival to 2020?

[_grindael]

Following the lead of General Mattis, McGurk just resigned.

[_Jersey Girl]

Following the lead of General Mattis, McGurk just resigned.

Yep. It's raining crap all over DC and he's bitching he can't go to damned Florida.

[_Jersey Girl]

Lindsey Graham on Afghanistan, in Afghanistan.

"The bad news? If we leave this place'd go to crap in a year. If we pull out, if we go to zero, this place will fall apart very, very, quickly and uh, we'll regret that decision at home. The people that we're holding at bay over here want to hit us again at home."

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/201 ... -politics/

And Trump is too much of a base coward to go there to find out for himself.

[_honorentheos]

Rather than a percentage, putting it in terms of which is more probable I believe that:

It is significantly more probable that Trump will remain President until the election of 2020 than it is he will step down from office.

It is more probable that Trump will remain President until the election of 2020 than it is he will be removed from office through the exercise of the 25th Amendment.

It is probable that Trump will remain President until the election of 2020 rather then being impeached and removed from office.

It is slightly more probable than not that the House of Representatives will hold a vote to impeach Trump before his first term is complete. It is slightly less than probable they would get the 2/3 majority vote required to be successful.

It is highly probable the Senate will not convict Trump were the House to successfully impeach him. It's probable that McConnell would hold off on holding the requisite hearings and bringing a vote to the floor with the claim that the people should decide instead in the election of 2020.

It is more probable than not that Trump will face a challenger in the Republican Primary race in 2020 who will be covered in the national news and treated as if they represent a legitimate threat to Trump's nomination. But it's less than probable this will amount to an actual serious challenge that is successful.

It's highly probable the Democrat Primary will expose deep divides between traditional Clinton-era Democrats, Social Progressives, and so-called Democratic Socialists in the party that becomes a messaging challenge to unseat Trump. In the same way states that failed to vote for Clinton over Sanders in the primaries ended up not voting for Clinton in the general election, the division of loyalties exposed in the Primaries is probably going to be telling as to the likely success of Democrats in taking back the Presidency in 2020.

It's equally possible the House will end up in Democrat or Republican control after the election of 2020. Too many things could happen at this point to be able to say.

It's slightly more probable Republicans will maintain control of the Senate in 2020 for similar reasons as to why Republicans had a downhill ride in 2018. While there are more Republican seats up in 2020 than Democrat, there aren't many in blue states that are likely to flip while Democrats have two that need defended in states that went for Trump in 2016. That includes Doug Jones in Alabama who beat Roy Moore because creeper. It's unlikely the Republicans will run another creeper.

So, take way probability: It's likely Trump will face but lose to a Democrat candidate in the 2020 election but neither party will be in a strong position to exert their political will while both will likely come out of the election with serious wounds. That said, Democrats would be naïve to not realize it is possible Republicans could maintain control of the Presidency and the Senate while taking back the House. 2020 isn't a sure thing.

At this point, the potential for 25th amendment action could be 50/50 between driving the economy off a cliff and moving the military around without consulting the military brass. I didn't think that was on the table but this last week really shook up the potential scenarios.

In the same vein of thinking, if his cabinet becomes obviously occupied by only loyalists incapable of stepping up, that increases the chances of both impeachment and conviction. It's hard to believe things drove off the cliff like they have in a little over a month.

[_Jersey Girl]

At this point, the potential for 25th amendment action could be 50/50 between driving the economy off a cliff and moving the military around without consulting the military brass. I didn't think that was on the table but this last week really shook up the potential scenarios.

In the same vein of thinking, if his cabinet becomes obviously occupied by only loyalists incapable of stepping up, that increases the chances of both impeachment and conviction. It's hard to believe things drove off the cliff like they have in a little over a month.

He's shoving out Mattis before the EOY now because he didn't like his resignation letter. That's right, President is throwing a tantrum. If that's not an indication of instability, I don't know what is. He's got two major military movements on the table and he's shoving his current Sec of Def out the door prematurely thus preventing any reasonable transition period between outgoing/incoming. I'm not sure those movements of military assets will happen since I think there will be a congressional inquiry of some sort--which when you think about it, said inquiry could, in the end, be part of a 25th Amendment process.

In any case, these are not stable behaviors we're seeing. I don't know tons about politics, but I do know what risk taking and irrational behaviors are.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

Considering the GOP's base is absolutely impervious to reality, as evidenced by subgenius' and Ajax's posting here, I'd say the 25th is not even close to being reality. And furthermore, unless Democrats get off the SJW thing and provide a genuinely together and compelling candidate we're going to get 4 more years of Trump (if he doesn't die in office of a heart attack). Considering they care more about judges and abortion all of this stuff falls under the category of eating a crap sandwich and making Liberals smell your breath. They literally don't give a flying “F” about anything that doesn't have an elephant stamped on it.

- Doc

[_Dr Exiled]

If someone would actually fight for what people want, they would beat Trump or whatever other stooge is there. Populism wins and is what won for Trump. Remember he promised to end the wars, fight nafta, bring jobs back to the midwest and repeal obama/romneycare. These were things Clinton and her wallstreet donors didn't want. Also, Comey's last minute surprise in changing his mind on the Clinton emails sure didn't help the Clinton's cause. I wonder why he did that just prior to the election? Was he trying to defeat Clinton for some reason? Anyway, wages have been going down or stagnating for the last 40 years or so while costs such as health care, transportation, food, student loans, etc. continue to rise. We can thank oligarchical/monopolists/bankers that run the country for that. Corporate Republicans and Corporate Democrats don't want these changes as it is not what their donor masters want. If a candidate actually fought to break up the media monopolies, the health insurance monopolies, bank monopolies, etc. while ending the wars and using our bloated military budget to solve domestic problems like infrastructure, etc., that candidate would win with the people hands down. People on the right and left would flock to the candidate because the real dichotomy is the 1% v. 99%.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

He's shoving out Mattis before the EOY now because he didn't like his resignation letter. That's right, President is throwing a tantrum. If that's not an indication of instability, I don't know what is. He's got two major military movements on the table and he's shoving his current Sec of Def out the door prematurely thus preventing any reasonable transition period between outgoing/incoming. I'm not sure those movements of military assets will happen since I think there will be a congressional inquiry of some sort--which when you think about it, said inquiry could, in the end, be part of a 25th Amendment process.

In any case, these are not stable behaviors we're seeing. I don't know tons about politics, but I do know what risk taking and irrational behaviors are.

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Brett McGurk, who I do not know, was appointed by President Obama in 2015. Was supposed to leave in February but he just resigned prior to leaving. Grandstander? The Fake News is making such a big deal about this nothing event!

The fact that our President has no clue who Brett is should scare the hell out of every American.

- Doc

[_Maksutov]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4225 ... RKZ7mp0oeg


The mood at the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill darkened with the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis.

A Pentagon official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity on Friday, described the mood inside the building as “eerie.”

“Obviously it’s close to the holidays so you don’t expect to see a lot of people, but there’s just a general fear of the unknown,” the official said.


The news that Mattis will leave at the end of February came on top of an already heavy plate of turmoil: President Trump’s full withdrawal from Syria, the consideration of a drawdown in Afghanistan, a looming government shutdown and tanking stock markets.

But the Mattis exit was the cherry on a sour sundae, given his standing as the most respected member of Trump’s Cabinet across the political spectrum.

It left officials and lawmakers in a gloomy mood, worried that Trump’s moves in Syria and Afghanistan are just the beginning.

“Imagine a mentor or a friend, someone you thought would be there for the entirety of your tour, someone who everyone thought really highly of, suddenly not there anymore. ... People are really bummed,” the Pentagon official said.

Mattis submitted his resignation letter to Trump on Thursday following the president’s decision to withdraw all 2,000 U.S. troops from Syria and as he mulls halving the number of troops deployed to Afghanistan.

Trump's special envoy for the global coalition fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Brett McGurk, also reportedly submitted his resignation on Friday due to his disagreement with the president's decision to withdraw troops from Syria. He was previously planning to leave in February.

Mattis's resignation letter offered a stunning rebuke of Trump’s worldview, making clear that Mattis resigned because his views did not “align” with the president’s on the value of alliances such as NATO and the anti-ISIS coalition and standing firm against adversaries such as Russia and China.

The letter sent shockwaves throughout Washington, with congressional leaders immediately commenting on how it rattled them.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), likely the next House Speaker, said she was “shaken.” Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), in one of his more critical statements of the president to date, said he was “particularly distressed” by the reasons Mattis resigned.

On Friday, as lawmakers wrangled over ways to avert a government shutdown in mere hours, the grieving over Mattis continued.

[_Jersey Girl]

The fact that our President has no clue who Brett is should scare the hell out of every American.

- Doc

I am not a mental health professsional, however, I think that any one who is would look at the upheaval that has taken place in a relatively short period of time (just frame it at 30 days) and assess that the President is losing his crap entirely.

In the tweet that you posted, it's not just that the President claims he doesn't know McGurk, it's that he's claiming that he doesn't know him to give the appearance that he's insiginficant while at the time he's revealing that he has no awareness at all how this makes him look through the eyes of others.

Because he can't tap into the perspective of others.

Because he's a narcissist.

Who has painted himself into a corner.

And has no control over the evidence (resignations/statements/timing) that shows that he's painted himself into a corner because staffers (of integrity and character) are bolting left and right and he is powerless to stop it.

He's throwing his toys around the room now.

If he's not losing his crap entirely, he's demonstrating for all the world to see that he's not equipped to do the job with any amount of competency.

McGurk as grandstander...I say that's a classic case of projection. But don't go by me.