The model is a blunt instrument but it does bring up an interesting question regarding how bad would it need to get for a red state tonflip thoughts fnit has been red less than twenty years? Anyway.
Is +4 a lot?
We are living through unusual times where Trump seems to be adding hurdles in front of his own reelection even as the economy is decidedly against him as well. So there isn't anything to point at and argue that it shows Missouri may flip on Trump beyond the tidal wave of circumstances and self-inflicted wounds that threaten to make his reelection less likely...at least at the moment. Point being, what EA said about Arizona being everything you think Missouri represents but more so is exactly right so it's meaningless if Missouri goes for Biden in November along with Arizona.
Now, my first thought before looking at the model was it had tapped into some historic line about Missouri being a bellweather state that had reliably gone for the winning candidate for almost a century until Obama. It's an unpleasant question regarding why Missouri seems to favor Republicans now when it was the swingiest of swing states before 2008. Lots of political thoughts have been put out about that, largely dealing with demographic shifts. But one has to wonder if having two elections with a black president followed by a woman vs. a race baiter doesn't come down to an unpleasant reality that people Missouri are swing voters so long as there are white males on the ticket. So who knows.
Last edited by Guest on Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
I don't know, did he? It's possible a guy on the internet created a meme that proves it true. Or it's been speculated on Twitter so it's probable as well. Standards for facts being what they are, as long as you think it's possible and there's a meme that seems to be the bar folks on both sides are requiring of their own views.
Trump is has direct responsibility in mass unemployment, excessive deaths related to a pandemic, rapidly raising national debt, and explosions of riots around the country. That's not something in evidence because of a Facebook meme.
Responding to a meme pointing this out by noting that it'll be bleak if and when he wins reelection isn't basing one's views on a meme. But I guess it gives some people whose personal identity rests on undeservedly feeling more clever than "both sides" a chance to go "hurr durr, memes."
I don't know, did he? It's possible a guy on the internet created a meme that proves it true. Or it's been speculated on Twitter so it's probable as well. Standards for facts being what they are, as long as you think it's possible and there's a meme that seems to be the bar folks on both sides are requiring of their own views.
honor, was this in response to the meme EA linked?
I didn't link a meme. I responded to moska linking a meme that attempts to point out devastation Trump has responsibility in by commenting that it's going to be bleak if and when he retains office. Because he's a really bad President, you see.
I don't know, did he? It's possible a guy on the internet created a meme that proves it true. Or it's been speculated on Twitter so it's probable as well. Standards for facts being what they are, as long as you think it's possible and there's a meme that seems to be the bar folks on both sides are requiring of their own views.
honor, was this in response to the meme EA linked?
If so, what did it get wrong?
No, it was more of a mocking shrug aimed at the thread taking a dip a couple of posts in a row, but aimed at a broad phenomenon one sees employed. The progression of "Trump total destruction" meme followed by "Engineered vote rigging will result in his getting four more years to piss on the ashes" required the even worse arrival of a militant giant clone army from an 80s anime because why not?
From a more serious take, we have had the worst pandemic since the late 1910s, worst economic conditions since the 1930s, worse riots and increased racial tensions since the 1960s...all in one year. I think Trump supporters view it as bad luck that Democrats are exploiting. Others maybe see it as karma. But to me it says having a grossly unqualified person in the White House had consequences. He was impeached for good reason. The pandemic might not be in anyone's control, but the response and ability to unify the country to fight it is. The race baiting and provoking violence in response to shore up support among scared suburban white female voters? Abysmal and dangerously narrow political thinking by a guy who ride being a divider and instigator into the White House. The economy was being artificially overheated to protect stock market gains at the expense of long term economic health. Tax cuts, ballooning debt, trade wars...this isn't an accident.
Memes have their place. I'm just not interested in seeing them take the place of discourse. It's like eating a diet of ranch dressing because they work well when included in a salad so it's even better to omit the salad.